知情人士：五角大楼评估减少在中东军事存在

According to multiple anonymous sources disclosed on the 18th, the Pentagon is conducting an informal assessment of the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, with a key area of focus being whether to withdraw troops from the Persian Gulf after the conclusion of hostilities with Iran. The U.S. military bases located there have suffered significant damage during the conflict, and experts have suggested that U.S. forces and equipment be relocated westward to Jordan, Israel, or along the Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia.

It is reported that this assessment is led by the Pentagon's policy office, with the U.S. military's Joint Chiefs of Staff and Central Command also studying related issues. Sources emphasize that U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has not formally ordered an assessment of the military situation in the Middle East; the ongoing assessment is considered "prudent planning" and may ultimately provide solutions for rebuilding U.S. military bases to the U.S. government.

One official stated that some decisions must be made regarding certain aspects of the assessment. There are indications that the Pentagon's evaluation is an "early sign" that the conflict with Iran may alter the U.S. military presence in the Middle East, but multiple sources stress that any permanent changes to the U.S. military posture in the region are still far off and would require high-level government approval.

According to sources, the assessment may intensify debates within the government between two factions: one supporting military intervention and the other believing that the Pentagon should scale back some security commitments to defend the U.S. homeland or concentrate efforts to contain adversaries.

The Central Command, responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, typically deploys about 40,000 troops at nearly 20 locations in the region. The largest permanent U.S. military bases in the Middle East are located in Bahrain and Kuwait, surrounding the Persian Gulf.

Since the outbreak of hostilities with Iran, several U.S. soldiers have been killed, and over 200 U.S. military facilities have been damaged or destroyed. The U.S. military has also expended over 1,000 advanced air defense interceptors, leading to depleted stocks of various missile types. The Pentagon publicly estimates that the cost of the conflict with Iran could reach $37.5 billion by the end of September, but this figure does not include the costs of rebuilding military bases in the Middle East, primarily because the government has not yet decided how to proceed with reconstruction. According to an estimate from a U.S. center-right think tank in April, rebuilding the attacked U.S. military bases could cost $5 billion.

Some think tanks have suggested that the U.S. close military bases located in Kuwait and other countries within the range of Iranian airstrikes and consolidate troops scattered across the UAE, Jordan, and Bahrain into relatively secure bases in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, pro-Israel lobbying organizations have called for the transfer of more U.S. military assets to Israel.

Michael Ratney, who previously served as the U.S. envoy to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, acknowledged that the conflict with Iran "does highlight... the vulnerabilities of U.S. forces in the Middle East." While relocating troops and equipment further west to Jordan, Israel, or Saudi Arabia may not be a perfect solution, it could help alleviate some pressure. It is understood that General Kenneth McKenzie, the commander of U.S. Central Command, is also involved in related discussions and supports considering the westward relocation of U.S. forces.

Furthermore, the potential change in U.S. military presence may affect Gulf countries that have relied on U.S. security protection for decades. These countries may increase domestic military investments or collaborate with other nations to offset the gaps left by the U.S. military, which could take months or even years. Some core U.S. allies in the Middle East have expressed dissatisfaction with the lack of proper consultation before the U.S. initiated hostilities against Iran.

Allison Meyer, who served as the director for Arabian Peninsula affairs on the National Security Council during President Trump's first term, stated that Gulf countries could maintain some elements of their security partnership with the U.S., including arms sales and intelligence sharing, even as the U.S. reduces its troop presence. "But you need to have a comprehensive discussion of all issues, not just troop numbers."