分析与报告

俄罗斯国防工业在持续制裁下展现出显著的动员动态，预计到2025年军事支出将达到13.5万亿卢布。尽管该行业雇佣了380万工人，但面临结构性挑战，包括双重用途进口的下降和财务困难。2026年的计划包括引入先进系统，如苏-75战斗机和萨尔马特洲际弹道导弹，但由于组件短缺和腐败问题，该行业的长期可持续性受到质疑。

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 06 2026Loading...

On February 5, a deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council stated that the termination of the New START treaty will not lead to a new arms race or nuclear war. He emphasized that the treaty has been ineffective in recent years and that both Russia and the U.S. will not exceed its limits for the foreseeable future, indicating a period of increasing uncertainty in global strategic nuclear forces.

美俄之间的新开始条约到期，取消了对双方核武库的限制。特朗普总统呼吁达成一项新的核协议，要求包括中国在内，但中国拒绝参与。俄罗斯对条约的结束表示遗憾，并表示将保持对核稳定的负责任态度。同时，美俄双方同意在暂停两年后恢复高级别军事对话。

美俄之间的新开始条约已到期，取消了对其核武库的限制。特朗普总统呼吁达成一项新的核协议，要求包括中国在内，但中国拒绝参与。俄罗斯对条约的结束表示遗憾，并表示将保持对核稳定的负责任态度。与此同时，美俄同意在暂停两年后恢复高层军事对话。

俄罗斯政府自2023年1月1日起为国内公司购买无人驾驶飞行器（UAV）引入了税收优惠。这一举措旨在加强无人机行业，以应对在乌克兰的持续军事行动，在那里无人机造成了大量伤亡。尽管有这些努力，俄罗斯仍然依赖外国技术，特别是来自中国和伊朗的技术，这表明在实现技术自主方面面临挑战。

Russia's Foreign Ministry declared that it no longer feels bound by the New START treaty obligations following the lack of a formal U.S. response to President Putin's proposal for voluntary compliance. The ministry emphasized readiness to take military-technical countermeasures to address potential threats to national security. The New START treaty, signed in 2010, is set to expire in 2026.

俄罗斯宣布2025年军售额为150亿美元，重点与30多个国家，特别是非洲的军事技术合作。普京总统表示，尽管受到西方制裁，这些合同仍已履行。该收入旨在现代化国防企业并扩大生产能力，尽管由于国内军事需求增加和持续制裁，这些出口水平的长期可持续性仍不确定。

Russia anticipates a significant increase in military technology exports, with orders expected to exceed 150 billion USD by 2025. President Putin announced that despite Western pressure, military contracts are being fulfilled with over 30 countries. Russia continues to strengthen military cooperation with key partners, including India, and is exploring new opportunities in Africa.

白俄罗斯已融入俄罗斯的军事态势，作为对乌克兰和北约的前方作战基地。这一整合使俄罗斯能够利用白俄罗斯的领土进行军事行动，增加对北约和乌克兰的压力。俄罗斯军队在白俄罗斯的存在对邻国构成持续威胁，根本改变了北约东翼的安全格局。

俄罗斯确认在2025年向超过30个国家出口超过150亿美元的武器，普京总统表示。尽管面临西方国家的压力，该国仍在继续发展军事技术合作。获得了一份可观的新出口订单组合，并预计在2026年的新计划下，未来的出口量将进一步上升。俄罗斯还与14个国家共同参与了超过340个军事技术项目，出口合同中航空相关系统的比例显著上升。

President Putin announced that Russia plans to significantly increase military exports by 2026, prioritizing military-technical cooperation with CSTO and CIS countries. Last year, Russia exported military products to over 30 countries, earning over $15 billion. Despite Western pressure, African nations expressed willingness to collaborate with Russia in military technology.

Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Bayramov stated that Azerbaijan's airspace will not be used for military operations against Iran during a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian on the night of the 30th. This statement was confirmed by the Azerbaijani ambassador to Iran.

Russia rejected Ukraine's request for a ceasefire of at least 60 days, as stated by Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow on January 29, 2023. Lavrov emphasized that previous ceasefires allowed Ukraine to replenish its military capabilities. He also noted that he has not seen the peace plan documents claimed by Ukraine and described the conflict as part of a larger confrontation with the West, with Ukraine being used as a pawn against Russia.

Syrian Transitional Government President Ahmad Sharrah visited Moscow on January 28, 2023, to reaffirm bilateral relations with Russia. Discussions focused on military cooperation and the geopolitical significance of Russian military bases in Syria. Sharrah acknowledged Russia's crucial role in stabilizing the region, despite previous conflicts between Syria and Russia. Experts suggest that the current military bases in Syria remain secure.

Belarus is enhancing its strategic deterrence capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons and the Iskander missile system, in response to perceived threats from Western countries. On January 28, the Secretary of State of the Security Council reported to President Lukashenko about military inspections and the increasing militarization of neighboring European nations. Belarus is closely monitoring these developments and plans to take appropriate measures.

自1990年代以来，中国通过俄罗斯的武器销售和技术转让显著现代化了其军事能力。这种关系演变为一种竞争动态，中国现在在军事出口方面对俄罗斯构成挑战。因此，俄罗斯正在重新评估未来对中国的武器销售，认识到加强潜在竞争对手的战略意义。

Russia's Ministry of Defense has begun large-scale recruitment for drone units since mid-January 2023, focusing on candidates with technical skills. The new units are transitioning to a more structured organization, prioritizing young recruits, including university students. Contract terms restrict service to drone units and include incentives for achieving specific military objectives.

俄罗斯海军计划退役库兹涅佐夫号航空母舰，预计到2026年将进行拆解或出售，原因是存在广泛的问题以及修理的经济不可行性。腐败加剧了这一情况，导致了显著的成本超支。俄罗斯军方正在逐步放弃传统航空母舰，标志着海军战略的重大变化。

俄罗斯军队目前面临显著的结构性挑战，这些挑战妨碍了其作战效能。分析强调，主要问题不是无人机的使用，而是军队的整体组织和能力。建议对军事结构进行改革，以应对这些挑战并提高未来冲突的准备能力。

Western Europe is preparing for war with Russia, as indicated by statements from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. This preparation suggests a serious escalation in military tensions between the two regions. The report highlights the urgency of the situation, although specific troop numbers and equipment details are not provided.