分析与报告

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that a new round of negotiations involving Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia is scheduled for February 1 in Abu Dhabi. This follows the conclusion of the first round of talks on January 24, which addressed security issues among the three nations. U.S. Special Envoy Whitaker confirmed the plans via social media.

On October 26, 2023, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed the recovery of the body of Lian Gvili, an Israeli hostage killed in combat on October 7, 2023. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad claimed they had provided the location of the body three weeks prior, accusing Israel of delaying the search. With this recovery, all hostages or bodies held in Gaza have been returned to Israel.

北约专家在1月22日的简报中强调了无人系统在维持北极战略主导地位中的关键作用。他们指出，俄罗斯和中国船只的侵入日益增加，强调需要无人驾驶车辆来应对海洋威胁。讨论中还提到了对水下电缆破坏的担忧以及该地区潜在冲突的可能性，突显了持续监视能力的重要性。

欧洲政策分析中心的专家在1月22日的简报中强调了无人系统在维护北约在北极的战略主导地位中的关键作用。他们指出，俄罗斯和中国船只的入侵日益增加，构成了重大威胁，特别强调需要无人水下航行器来防范潜在的水下电缆破坏。讨论突显了该地区恶劣天气条件带来的挑战。

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Baghaei stated that the Iranian armed forces will respond forcefully to any infringement, emphasizing that Iran does not welcome war but will defend itself if necessary. He accused the U.S. of undermining negotiations and stated that Iran has taken all feasible diplomatic measures to avoid conflict. If war is imposed, Iran will have no choice but to resist.

Hezbollah leader Naeem Qassem stated that the group will not remain neutral in the face of any military actions against Iran, warning that such actions could lead to a broader regional conflict. He reaffirmed Hezbollah's support for the Iran-led resistance against Israel and highlighted the potential consequences of threats against Iran's leadership on regional stability.

The United Arab Emirates reaffirmed that it will not permit its territory, airspace, or waters to be used for any military actions against Iran. The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs emphasized the importance of dialogue, de-escalation, and adherence to international law in addressing regional issues. This statement was made on January 26.

阿布扎比造船公司（ADSB）正在增加海上船舶和护卫舰的生产，首艘Falaj-3船预计将在2027年中期交付给科威特。该公司还在开发无人水面舰艇并整合新技术，同时其订单中有70%是出口到包括安哥拉和科威特在内的市场。首艘BR71 MKII护卫舰将于3月4日在法国谢尔堡下水。

美国总统特朗普对格林兰发出了军事行动的威胁，而俄罗斯在乌克兰持续取得进展。中国将台湾视为潜在的军事行动目标，伊朗尽管处于脆弱状态但仍具备报复能力。印度和巴基斯坦在近期军事冲突后紧张局势依旧，表明2026年即将到来的地缘政治形势岌岌可危。

特朗普总统在卡塔尔多哈宣布了 F-22 猛禽战斗机的‘超级猛禽’升级计划。该升级旨在将飞机的服役寿命延长至 15,000 小时，并包括先进的能力，如下一代红外搜索与追踪系统和 AIM-260 联合先进战术导弹。此外，还推出了新的‘F-55’概念，作为对 F-35 的升级。

伊朗威胁将在2026年1月关闭霍尔木兹海峡，旨在扰乱航运并推高全球油价。尽管缺乏持续关闭的常规海军力量，伊朗拥有海军水雷和反舰导弹等不对称能力。这一威胁作为对感知存在威胁的强制措施，可能促使美国采取重大军事反应，并促成国际联盟努力确保海上安全。

以色列艾尔比特系统公司获得了通用动力军火与战术系统公司颁发的2.28亿美元合同，旨在为美国陆军布拉德利步兵战车升级提供“铁拳”主动防护系统。该合同于2026年1月26日宣布，将在三年内执行，旨在增强装甲平台对现代战场威胁的生存能力。“铁拳”主动防护系统已被包括以色列国防军和北约军队在内的多国军队选用。

Turkey and Qatar signed multiple defense agreements during the 2026 Doha International Maritime Defense Exhibition, including a $1 billion deal for two Istanbul-class frigates. STM will assist in the local production of tactical drones in Qatar. The agreements signify a shift towards joint ventures and local production, with Qatar designating Turkey as a long-term partner in its defense modernization efforts.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio discussed with Iraqi Prime Minister Sudani the transfer and detention of ISIS members in secure facilities in Iraq following recent instability in northeastern Syria. This conversation took place on January 25.

Israeli Defense Forces conducted a search operation in the Northern Gaza Strip on January 25 to recover the last body of an Israeli hostage. The operation follows information provided by Hamas regarding the location of the body. The IDF estimates the search will take several days. Additionally, two Palestinians were reported killed by Israeli forces in separate incidents during the same timeframe.

The Chinese 24th Peacekeeping Force successfully passed a UN equipment inspection in Lebanon on the 24th, showcasing their operational readiness. The inspection covered over 20 categories of equipment, including vehicles and medical supplies, with all items meeting or exceeding UN standards. A team of 15 UN professionals conducted the thorough evaluation, highlighting the professionalism of the Chinese forces.

Hezbollah leader Naim Qassem called for widespread mobilization and international pressure to secure the release of Lebanese detainees held by Israel. He criticized the Lebanese government for failing to take appropriate action and for not prioritizing the issue. According to Lebanese statistics, at least 20 detainees are currently held by Israeli authorities, with most captured after a ceasefire agreement.

Hamas announced the transfer of all Israeli captives and remains in accordance with the ceasefire agreement, emphasizing transparency and urgency. Despite Israel's alleged non-compliance and repeated violations, Hamas completed the transfer under complex conditions. The Israeli government confirmed ongoing searches for the last captive's remains in northern Gaza, based on information provided by Hamas.

Iranian armed forces entered a state of full alert on January 25, monitoring hostile movements and prepared to respond to any aggression. Iranian officials emphasized their readiness to retaliate against U.S. interests in the region, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which they consider a strategic asset. The U.S. has been increasing its military presence in the area, raising tensions.

The 'Gulf Security-4' joint security exercise commenced in Qatar on January 25, involving security agencies from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and the United States. The exercise focuses on counter-terrorism, civil unrest management, cybersecurity threats, border security, and disaster response, and will conclude on February 4 with a joint assessment of outcomes.