分析与报告

乌克兰防空部队于1月29日在黑海上空击落了两架俄罗斯飞机，其中包括一架苏-34和一架苏-30SM。这些损失归因于美国制造的PAC-3爱国者系统，突显了乌克兰防御对抗俄罗斯空中力量的有效性。这一事件凸显了俄罗斯航空航天部队在冲突中面临的持续挑战。

白俄罗斯已融入俄罗斯的军事态势，作为对乌克兰和北约的前方作战基地。这一整合使俄罗斯能够利用白俄罗斯的领土进行军事行动，增加对北约和乌克兰的压力。俄罗斯军队在白俄罗斯的存在对邻国构成持续威胁，根本改变了北约东翼的安全格局。

Aero-Sentinel与2LNK GmbH达成分销协议，在哈萨克斯坦提供G2和G3无人机平台。此合作旨在满足该国日益增长的防务市场对可执行任务系统的需求。这些无人机专为秘密情报、监视和侦察任务而设计，适用于特种作战和内部安全单位。Aero-Sentinel的首席营销官Ofir Avram于周日宣布了这一消息。

俄罗斯确认在2025年向超过30个国家出口超过150亿美元的武器，普京总统表示。尽管面临西方国家的压力，该国仍在继续发展军事技术合作。获得了一份可观的新出口订单组合，并预计在2026年的新计划下，未来的出口量将进一步上升。俄罗斯还与14个国家共同参与了超过340个军事技术项目，出口合同中航空相关系统的比例显著上升。

Ukrainian forces launched unprecedented attacks on Belgorod, Russia, on January 24-25, utilizing U.S.-supplied HIMARS systems. Russian air defense intercepted 31 HIMARS rockets and 68 drones during this period. The frequency of HIMARS usage by Ukraine has notably increased, indicating a resumption of U.S. ammunition supplies that surpass previous levels. The attacks targeted energy infrastructure, aiming to cause widespread power outages.

北约于1月28日在黑海进行协调的空中监视飞行，参与的飞机包括美国海军的P-8A海神和皇家空军的RC-135W铆钉联合。飞机在国际空域内操作，监视俄罗斯在克里米亚和克拉斯诺达尔附近的军事活动。这次行动反映了北约在紧张局势加剧的情况下，持续努力保持该地区的态势感知。

President Putin announced that Russia plans to significantly increase military exports by 2026, prioritizing military-technical cooperation with CSTO and CIS countries. Last year, Russia exported military products to over 30 countries, earning over $15 billion. Despite Western pressure, African nations expressed willingness to collaborate with Russia in military technology.

白俄罗斯于1月29日接收了一批新的苏-30SM2战斗机，这是其空军和防空部队重新武装的一部分。这次交付继续进行升级多用途战斗机的计划转移，增强了白俄罗斯在地区军事活动增加背景下的军事能力。苏-30SM2战斗机旨在执行空中优势和打击任务，支持国家和盟友的行动。

Azerbaijan's Foreign Minister Bayramov stated that Azerbaijan's airspace will not be used for military operations against Iran during a phone call with Iranian Foreign Minister Amir-Abdollahian on the night of the 30th. This statement was confirmed by the Azerbaijani ambassador to Iran.

Russia rejected Ukraine's request for a ceasefire of at least 60 days, as stated by Foreign Minister Lavrov in Moscow on January 29, 2023. Lavrov emphasized that previous ceasefires allowed Ukraine to replenish its military capabilities. He also noted that he has not seen the peace plan documents claimed by Ukraine and described the conflict as part of a larger confrontation with the West, with Ukraine being used as a pawn against Russia.

苏-57“罪犯”是俄罗斯首款第五代隐形战斗机，强调机动性而非隐身，截至2023年12月已生产32架。其生产受到薄弱工业基础的制约，配备了为现代战斗设计的先进发动机和武器系统。该飞机的能力被定位为对美国隐形战斗机的回应，但其实际性能仍然是一个争论的话题。

苏-75 棋子隐形战斗机由苏霍伊公司开发，预计将在2027年初进行首次飞行。由于西方制裁和乌克兰战争的持续影响，该项目面临延迟，资源被重新分配。该飞机设计用于空对地打击任务，并结合了先进的隐身特性和航空电子设备。

Syrian Transitional Government President Ahmad Sharrah visited Moscow on January 28, 2023, to reaffirm bilateral relations with Russia. Discussions focused on military cooperation and the geopolitical significance of Russian military bases in Syria. Sharrah acknowledged Russia's crucial role in stabilizing the region, despite previous conflicts between Syria and Russia. Experts suggest that the current military bases in Syria remain secure.

The Russian Pacific Fleet conducted search and destroy exercises against a simulated enemy submarine in the Peter the Great Gulf on January 29. The Admiral Tributs anti-submarine ship, accompanied by a Ka-27PL helicopter, coordinated operations to locate and engage the simulated submarine, utilizing anti-submarine weapons during the exercise.

一架俄罗斯苏-30SM战斗机据报道在黑海南部的乌克兰附近被击落。该飞机属于俄罗斯武装部队，据信失去了机组人员。此事件尚未得到独立确认，俄罗斯当局对此损失未作出官方评论。

一架俄罗斯苏-34战斗机在库尔斯克地区坠毁，导致两名飞行员遇难。初步报告将此事件与乌克兰南部的战斗行动联系在一起，但后来的更新澄清了坠毁发生在俄罗斯境内。俄罗斯军方承认了这一损失，尽管坠毁原因尚未确认。

Belarus is enhancing its strategic deterrence capabilities, including tactical nuclear weapons and the Iskander missile system, in response to perceived threats from Western countries. On January 28, the Secretary of State of the Security Council reported to President Lukashenko about military inspections and the increasing militarization of neighboring European nations. Belarus is closely monitoring these developments and plans to take appropriate measures.

自1990年代以来，中国通过俄罗斯的武器销售和技术转让显著现代化了其军事能力。这种关系演变为一种竞争动态，中国现在在军事出口方面对俄罗斯构成挑战。因此，俄罗斯正在重新评估未来对中国的武器销售，认识到加强潜在竞争对手的战略意义。

Rostec向俄罗斯军方单位交付了新的Zubr短程防空系统，以保护关键基础设施免受无人机威胁。这些系统现已投入使用，并配备了用于检测大型和小型空中目标的雷达。Zubr旨在进行点防御，为高价值目标提供保护，以应对日益增加的无人机威胁。

苏-35战斗机是从苏-27系列发展而来的，目前正服役于俄罗斯空军。它的特点是强大的运动学性能和重型武器挂载能力，但存在显著的局限性，包括较大的雷达特征和缺乏隐身能力。该飞机的作战有效性受到现代地对空导弹威胁的限制，以及由于制裁而面临的俄罗斯航空航天工业的挑战。苏-35最适合用于国土防御和空中警戒任务，反映了俄罗斯对传统设计的依赖。