Analyst ties drone surge to CIA chief’s Moscow warning

Civilians and infrastructure on NATO’s eastern flank faced near-daily Russian drone incidents through August, even as the CIA director made a rare visit to Moscow to warn Russia against attacking a NATO member state, according to Cristian Vlas, an Eastern Europe analyst at the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED).

CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Moscow on August 25 and 26 for meetings with Russian intelligence officials, a trip first reported by the Wall Street Journal and CBS News, which said Ratcliffe’s goal was to discourage Russia from testing NATO’s Article 5 collective-defense commitment. President Donald Trump later called the visit “semi-routine.” The Kremlin confirmed contacts took place but said Ratcliffe did not meet with President Vladimir Putin.

Romania recorded repeated Russian drone incursions into its airspace through August, according to Vlas, most of which Romanian and NATO aircraft intercepted. Drone debris landed in both uninhabited and residential areas along Romania’s southeastern coast, near Black Sea tourist sites and oil infrastructure, he said.

On August 20, a Romanian Air Force F-16 destroyed a drone laden with explosives roughly 80 nautical miles (148 kilometers) off Constanța, near the Neptun Deep gas platform operated by OMV Petrom and Romgaz, after a commercial ship spotted the device drifting toward the site, according to Romania’s Defence Ministry. Ukraine’s military told Romanian officials the drone was not one of theirs; Romanian President Nicușor Dan blamed Russia, though authorities have not formally identified who built it.

Vlas said Moldova has also been affected by spillover from Russian strikes on Ukrainian territory near its border, with at least three crossing points temporarily closed during August because of nearby drone strikes. A Russian strike on August 21 damaged the Tabaky crossing, and a Ukrainian border crossing near Vulkaneshty-Vinogradovka closed on August 25, two days before Moldova marked its Independence Day on August 27.

“Moldova has also been affected by the spillovers from Russian attacks on Ukrainian grain routes, with three border checkpoints having been closed temporarily amid daily drone incidents, including on its Independence Day, highlighting Chisinau’s air defense vulnerability,” Vlas said.

Vlas said the recurring drone incidents are straining air defense resources across Eastern Europe, and that they may be compounding “possibly renewed Russian-linked sabotage attempts” in Germany, Estonia and Slovakia, which he said could be intended to divert investigative and prosecutorial resources while testing European Union resolve to continue backing Ukraine.

“Calling these increasingly regular security incidents hybrid warfare threats undermines efforts to define the deteriorating security environment, develop EU-wide and local solutions, and call out Russia’s systematic use of openly military or covert violence against Europe,” Vlas said.