"How Did Hezbollah Exceed Expectations in Combat Power?"

After the United States and Israel launched a large-scale military strike against Iran, the conflict in the direction of Lebanon has intensified. Israel has initiated ground operations with the intention of expanding the "buffer zone" in southern Lebanon. The already severely weakened Lebanese Hezbollah has demonstrated "beyond expectations" combat capabilities, and the scale and intensity of the conflict between the two sides have exceeded the levels seen in 2024.

Some analysts believe that Hezbollah has regained a certain level of combat capability through the reorganization of its military structure. As the Israeli military aggressively advances and insists on expanding the "buffer zone," the possibility of a prolonged conflict between the two sides has increased. Hezbollah's sustained combat capability, Iran's support for Hezbollah, and Israel's tolerance for casualties may collectively influence the direction of the conflict.

Combat Capability "Beyond Expectations"

In recent years, especially during the high-intensity conflicts from September to November 2024, Hezbollah suffered significant losses at the hands of Israel: the then-leader Hassan Nasrallah and his perceived successor Hashim Safieddine both died; nearly all of the military leaders from Hezbollah's founding period were lost; external estimates suggest that about 4,000 combat personnel were killed; the Israel Defense Forces also claimed to have destroyed nearly 90% of Hezbollah's rocket stockpiles.

Following the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, Hezbollah, which was perceived to be "severely injured," quickly "entered the fray." According to statistics released by Hezbollah, from March 2 to April 1, the organization launched over 1,300 strikes against targets within Israel and the invading Israeli military in southern Lebanon, claiming to have hit or destroyed dozens of Israeli Merkava main battle tanks and other military vehicles. The Israeli military stated earlier this month that approximately 1,000 Hezbollah members have been killed in this round of conflict.

Since the start of the conflict, Israel has deployed at least four divisions of troops into southern Lebanon, aiming to control an area approximately 30 kilometers deep from the border to the Litani River. However, the Israeli military's ground advance has not gone smoothly, and there have been casualties. According to Israeli sources, since March 2, at least 10 Israeli soldiers have died in southern Lebanon. Other reports indicate that over 300 Israeli soldiers have been injured in the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran.

Reorganization of Military Structure

Multiple analyses point out that one important reason for Hezbollah's recovery of combat capability over the past year has been the rapid reorganization of its military structure.

An analysis article from Radio France Internationale states that Hezbollah's military and security institutions are currently under the command of a third generation of commanders. They are in their prime, well-educated, and possess rich knowledge in technology and other professional fields. The new generation of leadership has decentralized and reorganized Hezbollah's structure. Other analyses suggest that after the reorganization, Hezbollah has shifted to a "decentralized command structure" composed of many small units, resulting in a flatter command system where units know little about each other's actions, which helps address infiltration issues faced by Israeli intelligence.

An article from the Royal United Services Institute in the UK comments that the reorganized Hezbollah has returned to a more decentralized guerrilla organization form, which is more suitable for asymmetric warfare and long-term military resistance.

It is worth mentioning that Hezbollah's recent reorganization is believed to have received strong support from Iran. Reuters recently cited multiple sources reporting that shortly after the ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel was reached in November 2024, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard dispatched about 100 officers to assist Hezbollah with military training and was deeply involved in the reorganization of its command structure.

Three Major Factors Influencing the Direction of the Conflict

Since the end of March, Israel has shown intentions for a long-term occupation of southern Lebanon. Analysts point out that based on nearly half a century of combat history between Hezbollah and Israel, if Israel insists on occupying southern Lebanon, the likelihood of a prolonged conflict is very high. Hezbollah's long-term combat capability, Iran's support for Hezbollah, and Israel's tolerance for casualties are three factors that may collectively influence the future direction of the conflict.

First, Hezbollah still possesses personnel and equipment for long-term combat. A recent assessment report from the Alma Research and Education Center in Israel states that Hezbollah has approximately 40,000 to 50,000 active combat personnel, along with another 30,000 to 50,000 reservists. In terms of equipment, Hezbollah still has about 25,000 rockets, primarily short-range and medium-range, with the capability to launch dozens of them daily. Additionally, the organization possesses a certain number of cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, and drones.

Second, Iran is expected to continue supporting Hezbollah. Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei recently sent a letter to Hezbollah leader Naeem Qassem, emphasizing that Iran will continue to support the resistance against the United States and Israel.

Third, Israel's tolerance for casualties has always been an important factor influencing the situation. The Israeli military invaded Lebanon in 1982, establishing a long-term presence in southern Lebanon and creating a so-called "security zone." However, in the following decade, Hezbollah's frequent attacks on Israeli forces in Lebanon resulted in the deaths of hundreds of Israelis, leading the Israeli military to eventually withdraw due to the high cost of casualties.

Now, as the Israeli military re-enters southern Lebanon on a large scale, it may face similar risks, which is something Israel is keen to avoid. The Jerusalem Post recently published an article stating, "Israelis have vowed never to get stuck again in the 'Lebanese quagmire' that costs an average of over 20 soldiers a year."

Reporters: Cheng Shuaipeng, Hu Guan