In-Depth Observation of the Times: Will Trump Send Ground Troops to Iran?

On March 4 local time, the military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran entered their fifth day.

U.S. President Trump stated in an interview with the New York Post on the 2nd that if necessary, he "does not rule out the possibility of sending ground troops to Iran depending on the situation."

The U.S. clearly did not anticipate such a fierce counterattack from Iran, and seems a bit flustered.

Over the past few days, the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia and numerous military bases in the Middle East have been bombed, with several aircraft destroyed. This is a significant loss that the U.S. has not encountered since Trump took office.

Although sending ground troops may lead the U.S. to repeat its previous mistakes in Iraq and Afghanistan, most international analysts believe that, given Iran's strong response, airstrikes alone will not force Iran to submit.

What worries the world is that this conflict has escalated into a war involving a dozen countries, and "no one knows how it will end."

Despite the large scale of U.S. military forces gathering around Iran—ranging from the arrival of stealth fighters, early warning aircraft, and tankers in the air, to the deployment of two carrier strike groups at sea.

It can be said that the U.S. military has completed the "largest mobilization in decades" in the Middle East, but whether the U.S. will launch a ground offensive against Iran remains uncertain.

Produced by Boguang Studio

Written by | Global Times Special Correspondent in the U.S. | Xiao Da

Global Times Special Correspondent | Wang Yi

1. "There will be more U.S. military casualties"

According to the Associated Press, Trump delivered his first public speech since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict at the White House on the 2nd.

Trump outlined the "four main objectives" of the military action against Iran: to destroy Iran's missile capabilities, to destroy the Iranian navy, to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, and to stop Iran from providing weapons, funds, and command resources to "foreign terrorist organizations."

Regarding how long the U.S. military operations against Iran will last, Trump stated: "Initially, we expected it to take four to five weeks, but we have the capability to sustain it longer. It doesn't matter how long it takes, or what the cost is."

During the same day’s interview with the New York Post, Trump also discussed the possibility of sending ground troops to Iran.

He stated that if necessary, he does not rule out the possibility of sending ground troops to Iran depending on the situation.

According to reports, Trump said: "I am not worried about sending ground troops. I will not say, like every previous president, 'I will never send ground troops.' I will say 'it may not be necessary,' or 'if needed (we will send ground troops).'"

On the same day, U.S. Secretary of Defense Hegseth stated at the Pentagon's first press conference regarding the attack operations that the U.S. currently has not deployed ground troops in Iran, but he would not speculate on "what actions we will or will not take."

Hegseth also said he "would never set a timeline for this war," and indicated that the timeline for the war "could be advanced or delayed."

Some analysts believe that Trump and Hegseth have always held press conferences to detail "achievements" in previous military actions against Venezuela and others, but this time it is completely different.

In contrast to them, the statement from U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Milley seems more "pessimistic."

According to the New York Times, Milley stated at a Pentagon press conference on the 2nd that the military operations against Iran are still in the "early stages," and more U.S. troops will continue to be deployed to the Middle East, with expectations of "more U.S. military casualties."

Regarding some senior military officials' private concerns about ammunition shortages, Milley stated that this operation "is not a one-off," and "military missions take time to achieve, and in some cases, it is a daunting task."

2. Six evacuation orders issued in three hours

In the past two days, the U.S. seems to be a bit flustered.

The U.S. Central Command announced on social media on the 2nd that as of that day, six U.S. service members had died in the military operations against Iran. Additionally, 18 U.S. soldiers were seriously injured.

According to the Islamic Republic News Agency on the 4th, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps issued announcement No. 9 stating that in the past 24 hours, six more U.S. and Israeli military drones had been shot down, bringing the total to 35 U.S.-Israeli drones downed.

The Iranian Tasnim News Agency reported on the 3rd that as of that day, Iran had launched over 700 drones and hundreds of missiles at Israeli and U.S. military bases.

On the 2nd, Iran launched missile attacks on the Israeli Prime Minister's office and the Israeli Air Force headquarters, causing "significant damage."

The Kuwaiti Ministry of Defense announced on the 2nd that "several" U.S. military aircraft had crashed that day. Subsequently, the U.S. Central Command stated that three U.S. F-15E aircraft were "mistakenly shot down by Kuwaiti air defense forces" during intense combat with Iran, and an investigation into the incident is underway.

On the same day, Qatar announced that an energy facility had suspended liquefied natural gas production due to an attack by Iranian drones. As a result, European benchmark natural gas prices surged over 50% during trading on the 2nd.

The Saudi Arabian Ministry of Defense stated on the 3rd that the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia was attacked by drones that caused a fire, damaging the embassy building. Additionally, the U.S. consulate in Erbil, Iraq, was attacked.

Iran's fierce counterattack caught the U.S. off guard. Within just three hours in the early morning of the 3rd, the U.S. State Department issued six evacuation orders, urging U.S. citizens to evacuate from almost all Middle Eastern countries, including Israel.

The British Independent reported on the 3rd that given the intensity of Iran's counterattack, Trump's goal of destroying all of Iran's missile capabilities and its proxies in the Middle East will inevitably require sending ground troops, and "achieving these goals without deploying troops is currently pure fantasy."

3. Concerns over U.S. ammunition reserves

Regarding the attack on the U.S. embassy in Saudi Arabia, Trump threatened, "People will soon see the U.S. retaliatory actions."

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated before a confidential briefing in Congress on the 2nd that "the most severe strikes have yet to come, and the next phase of punishment against Iran will be even greater."

However, Rubio inadvertently revealed a key point during the briefing. He stated, "Iran produces over 100 missiles a month, while we can only produce six or seven interceptors a month."

CNN reported on the 2nd, citing Defense Department officials, that the U.S. missile reserves, including "Tomahawk" missiles, are already insufficient, and the stockpile of "Standard-3" air defense missiles is also about to be depleted.

The British Daily Mail reported that the manufacturing cost of an Iranian drone is as low as $35,000, while the cost of intercepting a drone ranges from $500,000 to $4 million.

It is estimated that Iran has a total of 80,000 to 100,000 "Shahed" drones. Western officials warn that the stockpile of interceptors is struggling to keep up with the consumption rate, and pressure on the U.S. is already evident.

Ukrainian President Zelensky also complained on the 2nd that due to Iranian factors, Ukraine is facing difficulties in obtaining missiles and other weaponry from the U.S.

In response to these rumors, Trump posted on social media on the 2nd that the U.S. weapon stockpile "has never been so ample and high-performing," and he angrily called Zelensky a "circus master" in his post.

"The U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has spread to the entire Middle East within 72 hours." The Washington Post reported on the 3rd that as U.S.-Israeli attacks and Iranian counterattacks continue, death and injury are spreading far beyond military objectives: the U.S. embassy has been attacked, and multiple energy facilities in the Middle East have been damaged, causing global oil and gas prices to soar.

No country in the Middle East can remain aloof; Iran wants to use this to pressure countries against the U.S.

Reports indicate that the conflict has now spiraled out of control, with the Strait of Hormuz, which controls about one-fifth of global oil transport, being blocked, and the shockwaves of war affecting the entire globe, with "no one knows how it will end."

Senior U.S. diplomat Donald Heflin recently stated that the likelihood of U.S. troops entering Iran is low, "perhaps small special forces will be sent secretly," but large-scale troop deployment "should not happen."

After all, Iran is a large country, and rashly sending troops poses great risks. Additionally, in Heflin's view, Trump is accustomed to creating chaotic situations and then profiting from them.

Source: Boguang Studio