International Observation | "The Expanding Dangerous Vortex" — The Impact of the US-Israel-Iran Conflict on the World: "Four Major Shocks"

Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, March 22 - The military strikes by the United States and Israel against Iran have entered their fourth week. How this conflict will end remains unpredictable, but it has already had a strong impact and far-reaching effects on geopolitics and the global landscape.

International opinion warns that this conflict is like "an ever-expanding dangerous vortex," engulfing regional security, backfiring on the United States itself, impacting the global economy, and undermining the international order. The "war addiction" logic and hegemonic inertia of the U.S. and Israel are seriously eroding the foundation of world peace and development.

The Middle East "faces cross-generational impacts"

"The U.S. actively participating in Israel's brutal and unrestrained war will only make Middle Eastern countries worry that they might be the next target," wrote Mark Lynch, a professor at George Washington University.

International observers believe that the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict is not only pushing the entire Middle East toward a dangerous abyss but will also have "cross-generational profound impacts" on the regional geopolitical landscape.

First, the Middle East may fall into long-term turmoil. Under the dual pressures of revenge sentiment and regime security, Iran may continue or even strengthen its hardline policies against the U.S. and Israel, including adopting asymmetric warfare methods to confront them in the long term. An Iran seeking revenge and rebuilding deterrence may introduce new variables to the region, keeping the situation in the Middle East in a prolonged state of high tension.

Second, the balance of power in the region is further shifting. Ding Long, a professor at Shanghai International Studies University, believes that the long-standing "Israel-Iran" balance in the Middle East has been broken, leading to an expansion of Israel's strategic space and influence. Former Saudi intelligence chief Prince Turki al-Faisal bluntly stated that Israel's expansionist ambitions pose a clear threat to regional stability.

This photo, taken on March 13, shows Israeli military forces gathering in the border area between northern Israel and Lebanon. Xinhua News Agency (Photo by Gil Cohen-Magen)

Third, the regional security landscape may face reconstruction. Several Gulf countries hosting U.S. military bases are experiencing shocks to their security, energy, and economic trade due to the conflict, leading to a strong sense of "betrayal by the U.S.": on one hand, the U.S. insists on joining forces with Israel to initiate military action, disregarding the security and interests of Gulf countries; on the other hand, U.S. military bases have become "sources of risk" rather than "umbrellas of protection."

"Some Gulf countries realize that 'U.S. protection' is unreliable." Experts like Fawaz Gerges, a professor at the London School of Economics, analyze that this conflict may become a turning point in U.S.-Gulf security relations, prompting the latter to reassess their security dependence on the U.S., strengthen their own and collective defense capabilities, and accelerate the diversification of security partnerships.

Hegemonism backfires on the U.S.

"The U.S. has become a predatory hegemon. Consistent predatory hegemonic policies will lead to a gradual, then sudden, decline in America's global influence," said Stephen Walt, a professor at Harvard University.

Although the Trump administration has repeatedly claimed that actions against Iran would "end quickly," international opinion believes that the internal and external impacts of this conflict on the U.S. have only just begun.

First, the Middle East conflict is shaking the U.S. midterm election landscape. The conflict has triggered a surge in oil prices, increasing inflationary pressures in the U.S., leaving Americans feeling "chilled." The latest polls show that nearly 60% of Americans oppose military action against Iran. If such public sentiment continues, it will lead to a loss of votes for the Republican Party, to which President Trump belongs. Data from the U.S. prediction site "Kallsh" indicates that the probability of the Democratic Party regaining control of both houses of Congress in the midterm elections this November has significantly increased.

Second, political polarization and division are further intensifying. Actions against Iran have become a new focal point for mutual attacks between the two parties, with Democrats criticizing the legitimacy of military action against Iran and attempting to push legislation to limit the president's war powers. There are also cracks appearing within Trump's core support base, the "Make America Great Again (MAGA)" camp, as opinion leaders express dissatisfaction or "cut ties" with Trump, and grassroots voters' disappointment is spreading.

Finally, the U.S.'s international reputation and influence continue to weaken. European allies are quickly distancing themselves from U.S. military actions, and the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz has further widened the transatlantic rift. Elizabeth Saunders, a researcher at the Brookings Institution, stated that the conflict against Iran will further shake allies' confidence in the reliability of U.S. strategy, and the widespread questioning of Washington's decision-making system and military-political relations will ultimately damage the U.S.'s international standing and influence.

The U.S. military actions have resulted in numerous civilian casualties, including Iranian children, while the Trump administration continues to evade responsibility in the face of solid evidence, provoking strong resentment from the international community. Nicholas Kristof, a columnist for The New York Times, bluntly stated that in the eyes of the international community, the U.S. has become a complete "rogue state."

On February 28, at a school in Minab, southern Iran, that was attacked, a man holds a backpack retrieved from the rubble. Xinhua News Agency/Mehr News Agency

Many scholars compare the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict to the 1956 Suez Crisis, which is considered to have completely declared the end of the "British Empire," while the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict may accelerate the decline of U.S. hegemony due to "strategic overreach." American historian Alfred McCoy stated that we may currently be witnessing the "Suez Canal moment" of U.S. hegemony.

The global economy is trapped in a "fog of uncertainty"

"This conflict is not over yet, but it has already made the world economy less prosperous, more unstable, and harder to govern," commented the British journal The Economist.

Experts believe that the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict has impacted the world economy in almost every corner, leading the world into an "era of energy insecurity," with economic development facing "uncertainty rising to a new dimension."

The Strait of Hormuz, controlled by Iran, carries one-fifth of global oil transportation, a significant proportion of fertilizer and chemical product transportation, as well as about one-third of global maritime fertilizer trade. The conflict has effectively closed this strait, which analysts at JPMorgan have described as "an unimaginable situation."

First, oil prices have soared, and "energy anxiety" is spreading. Multiple institutions predict that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Brent crude oil could exceed $150 per barrel, or even reach $200. Analysts have already compared the current situation to the oil crisis of the 1970s. Although the use of oil in the global economy has decreased, it remains concentrated in key areas such as petrochemical production and transportation, and the destructive impact cannot be ignored.

This photo released by the Royal Thai Navy on March 11 shows a Thai cargo ship on fire after being attacked in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. Xinhua News Agency (Photo provided by the Royal Thai Navy)

Second, the closure of the "lifeline" of global shipping, the Strait of Hormuz, along with rising energy prices, is impacting global trade and supply chains, jeopardizing food production security. The chemical manufacturing supply chain is facing interruptions or delays, chip manufacturing is "running out of gas" due to helium supply risks, and many manufacturing industries are "bleeding" due to tight raw material supplies. A shortage of fertilizer supply could ultimately translate into food shortages and rising food prices.

Third, the prolonged conflict exacerbates the "fog of uncertainty" in the global economy, undermining investor and consumer confidence, and weakening the momentum of global economic growth. Michael Klein, a professor at Tufts University, stated, "War makes people unwilling to consume, businesses unwilling to invest, and decision-makers find it harder to manage the economy." Energy crises, financial turmoil, loss of consumer confidence, impacts on businesses, rising unemployment rates... The Financial Times warns that this geopolitical conflict has plunged the world back into the "shadow of stagflation."

Increased oil production, restoration of energy facilities, and the resumption of idle corporate capacity will not be resolved quickly with the end of the conflict. Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz stated that this conflict has led to "increased uncertainty," bringing "a disaster" to the world economy.

Endless consequences after the destruction of the international order

"Using force at will to eliminate foreign leaders who do not act according to one's own will, if such lawlessness can run rampant in the world, the international order of sovereign states coexisting equally will be completely destroyed." International media warn that the war initiated by the U.S. and Israel severely undermines global strategic stability and erodes the foundations of the post-war international order and peace.

First, the prolonged conflict may give rise to a new refugee crisis. A report from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees indicates that this conflict has displaced nearly 800,000 people in Iran and Lebanon, while there are about 1.6 million Afghan and Iraqi refugees within Iran. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu stated that if this conflict continues to spread, it is likely to evolve into a lasting refugee crisis.

Second, security anxieties may elevate the risk of nuclear proliferation. Media outlets like Vox in the U.S. point out that the Trump administration's open use of force and assassination of foreign leaders under the pretext of eliminating their nuclear capabilities will greatly exacerbate the insecurity of more countries, reinforcing the logic that "only by possessing nuclear weapons can one ensure self-defense."

Third, it undermines the international community's confidence in resolving disputes through dialogue. Cui Shoujun, a professor at Renmin University of China, pointed out that the U.S. suddenly launched attacks during negotiations with Iran, which is akin to shaking hands while wielding a knife; such behavior of "hitting while talking" will completely destroy the credit system of modern diplomacy.

From the surprise attack on Venezuela to military strikes on Iran; from the assassination of Iranian leaders to attacks on elementary schools and other civilian targets... A series of actions by the U.S. and Israel not only grossly violate the fundamental principles of international law established by the United Nations Charter, such as sovereign equality, non-interference in internal affairs, and the prohibition of the use of force, but also breach the bottom line of civilization, trampling on the institutional achievements forged by humanity through blood and fire.

On March 7, people participated in a rally in New York City, protesting against the U.S. and Israel's military strikes on Iran. Xinhua News Agency reporter Zhang Fengguo

The actions of the U.S. and Israel have been condemned by multiple countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that the U.S. and Israel's assassination of Iran's supreme leader is a blatant violation of human moral standards and international law. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticized the U.S. and Israel's military strikes against Iran as "illegal," "unreasonable, and causing serious damage."

Experts from various countries comment that U.S. hegemonic behavior has formed an extremely dangerous inertia, and the logic that might makes right and the brutal trampling of international law are the root causes of the current turmoil in the global order. If power is not restrained, and rules are broken, it will trigger a "broken window effect," leading to more frequent and unimaginable dangerous actions.

As Brazilian President Lula has called for, countries must learn to respect each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, "We cannot accept anyone acting as the master of the world."