Japan, the United States, and the Philippines Conduct Joint Exercises in the Bashi Channel: Building a New Deterrent Focused on the Taiwan Strait

From February 27 to 28, 2026, the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, and the Armed Forces of the Philippines conducted the 15th Multilateral Maritime Cooperative Activity (MMCA) in the Bashi Channel, located between the Philippines and Taiwan. Notably, this exercise marked the first time that the trilateral joint exercises, previously conducted in the South China Sea, expanded beyond that region to waters close to Taiwan. According to a statement from the Philippine military, this joint activity demonstrates the participating forces' sustained commitment to enhancing interoperability, strengthening maritime security, and improving maritime domain awareness in the region.

The exercise included P-3C patrol aircraft from the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force, which conducted flight training alongside U.S. military aircraft. The Philippine side deployed Antonio Luna-class frigates, helicopters, and fighter jets. The Bashi Channel is a strategically vital waterway located between Taiwan and the Philippines, serving as one of the main routes connecting the Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea. It is undeniable that this channel will become a critical theater in the event of military action by China against Taiwan. The fact that this exercise was conducted in these waters clearly indicates the intention of Japan, the U.S., and the Philippines to strengthen their posture in anticipation of a situation surrounding Taiwan.

The backdrop of this exercise is the rapid transformation of Japan's defense policy under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. Since taking office in October 2025, Prime Minister Takaichi has announced a significant acceleration of the goal to achieve a defense budget of 2% of GDP, moving the target date from 2027 to March 2026. This represents the largest defense buildup plan since World War II, aimed at modernizing and enhancing the capabilities of the Self-Defense Forces. In a parliamentary response on November 7, 2025, Prime Minister Takaichi explicitly stated that an attack by China on Taiwan could qualify as a "survival crisis situation" under Japan's peace and security legislation. This is a remarkably bold statement for a Japanese Prime Minister, clarifying Japan's stance on involvement in a Taiwan contingency.

Additionally noteworthy is the Extended Deterrence Dialogue (EDD) held in Washington on February 18, 2026. Co-hosted by the U.S. Department of State and Department of Defense, along with Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Defense, this dialogue reaffirmed the shared resolve of President Trump and Prime Minister Takaichi to further strengthen the deterrent and response capabilities of the Japan-U.S. alliance. The delegations from both countries reaffirmed the unwavering commitment of the U.S. to defend Japan using all defense capabilities, including nuclear forces. The Japanese side also expressed its intention to contribute to strengthening U.S. deterrence by denial through support for U.S. military operations for peacekeeping.

The discussions also addressed China's rapid and opaque nuclear weapons buildup and testing, which destabilizes the region, as well as Russia's historical non-compliance in arms control. The U.S. reiterated the necessity of multilateral strategic stability and arms control negotiations, while Japan welcomed the U.S. intent to achieve better agreements and emphasized the importance of engaging Russia and China. Furthermore, both countries discussed the developments in North Korea's (DPRK) nuclear and missile programs, reaffirming their commitment to the complete denuclearization of North Korea.

As part of this extended deterrence dialogue, both countries conducted regular tabletop exercises. These exercises confirmed the procedures for the Self-Defense Forces and U.S. military to attack enemy missile launch sites using counterattack capabilities. Counterattack capabilities refer to the new defense capabilities, including the ability to strike enemy bases, that Japan has been developing since 2022. Specifically, the deployment of Tomahawk cruise missiles, Joint Strike Missiles, and domestically improved Type 12 surface-to-ship guided missiles is underway. With these capabilities, Japan is acquiring the ability to attack the launch sites of adversaries while maintaining its traditional framework of exclusively defensive defense.

On the other hand, Japan-China relations have entered a state of serious tension from late 2025 to early 2026. On December 7, 2025, a Chinese fighter jet engaged in a highly dangerous act by illuminating Japan's aircraft with fire control radar. The illumination of fire control radar is considered a pre-attack action, which could easily escalate into armed conflict. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles expressed "deep concern over China's actions" and pledged to cooperate with Japan to uphold a rules-based order. A U.S. State Department spokesperson also criticized, stating, "China's actions do not contribute to regional peace and stability."

Furthermore, China has exerted pressure on Japan through various means, including drone flights around Yonaguni Island and derogatory online remarks by Chinese diplomats directed at the Japanese Prime Minister. According to Reuters, around the time of Prime Minister Takaichi's electoral victory in February, dozens of X accounts related to a Chinese misinformation campaign attacked Takaichi's conservative views and hardline stance against China. Ironically, such intimidating actions by China may have bolstered domestic hardline sentiments against China in Japan, contributing to a significant victory for Takaichi's ruling party.

The joint exercise conducted by Japan, the U.S., and the Philippines in the Bashi Channel was carried out against the backdrop of these regional tensions. The collaboration of Japan, the U.S., and the Philippines in conducting joint exercises in waters close to Taiwan sends a clear message to China. It signifies that the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait are vital interests for the three countries, and they will not tolerate any unilateral attempts to change the status quo. The Philippines is engaged in territorial disputes with China in the South China Sea, and the Marcos administration has been strengthening security cooperation with the U.S. and Japan. For Japan, the stability of the Taiwan Strait is directly linked to its own security.

The security environment in Northeast Asia is rapidly changing. China's military buildup, North Korea's nuclear and missile development, and the destabilization of the international order due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine present Japan with the most significant security challenges since World War II. Under the Takaichi administration, Japan has shifted its course towards enhancing realistic defense capabilities and strengthening cooperation with allies while maintaining the constraints of Article 9 of its constitution. The exercise in the Bashi Channel can be seen as a symbolic event representing this policy shift.

In the future, military cooperation among Japan, the U.S., and the Philippines is expected to deepen further. The implementation of regular joint exercises, strengthening information-sharing systems, and enhancing interoperability are essential for increasing regional deterrence. At the same time, it cannot be denied that such movements may further heighten tensions with China. Japan must pursue both the enhancement of deterrence and the maintenance of dialogue simultaneously. The balance between the Takaichi administration's hardline stance and flexibility in actual diplomacy will be key to Japan's future foreign policy. The trilateral joint exercise conducted in the Bashi Channel may herald the dawn of a new era in the Northeast Asian security order.