Japan's National Security Strategy at a Turning Point: Adapting to a New Reality

March 2026 marks a historic turning point in Japan's security environment. The joint naval exercises conducted by the Philippines, the United States, and Japan from February 20 to 26 in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) symbolize the deepening of military cooperation in the region. However, behind this superficial solidarity lies a complex set of strategic challenges that Japan faces.

According to a survey conducted by the Japanese government in January 2026, 68% of the Japanese public views China's advancements in military technology and its activities around Japan and in the South China Sea as the greatest security concern. This figure surpasses concerns over North Korea's missile program, indicating a fundamental shift in Japan's security perception. The passage of the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy's aircraft carrier Liaoning through the Miyako Strait on December 6-7, 2025, during which it conducted approximately 100 takeoff and landing drills with the Shenyang J-15 fighter jet, underscores the reality of these concerns.

Japan's security strategy has been predicated on the international order established and maintained by the United States since World War II. Washington has committed to maintaining global trade flows, and while multilateral institutions are not perfect, they have functioned as a deterrent against the norm of territorial annexation by force. Above all, the vested interests of the United States in the security of its allies have guaranteed protection for Japan and other countries in the event of conflict.

However, this premise is now shaky. The "America First" policy of the Trump administration has taken root from its first to second term, leaving close partner countries like Japan astonished by Washington's tariff-based trade policies, demands for greater security burdens on allies, and, most importantly, its posture of undermining the very system it built. The U.S. National Security Strategy announced in November 2025 explicitly stated the intention to "build military capabilities to deter aggression at any point along the First Island Chain," yet concerns remain about whether it will follow through on its warning not to defend countries that do not make sufficient security investments.

This new reality demands that Japan consider strategic autonomy more seriously. Japan faces two nuclear-armed states, China and Russia, which are strengthening their cooperation. Furthermore, North Korea continues to advance its nuclear and missile capabilities. Reports indicate that over 10,000 North Korean military personnel have been dispatched to Ukraine to fight on the Russian side, deepening military cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow. The triangular relationship among China, North Korea, and Russia is also strengthening. While this group is not monolithic and each member has different, sometimes conflicting interests, the support for Russia's war from North Korea and China provides a glimpse into how the three countries might cooperate in the event of a crisis in the Korean Peninsula or the Taiwan Strait.

The Ukraine conflict has ushered in a new era of warfare, compelling all nations to adapt their military planning and procurement. In February 2022, the Russian military advanced toward Kyiv with tanks, but this tactic has now become outdated. Drones dominate the front lines and all combat domains—air, underwater, and ground. Sensors, precision-guided munitions, and other technologies are advancing at an astonishing pace driven by the immediate needs of the battlefield. The platform Brave1, operated by the Ukrainian government, functions as a rapid procurement hub, matching cutting-edge technologies from startups with frontline units. New systems are tested almost immediately after development, incorporating real-time feedback from the field.

Japan, lacking such wartime urgency, does not yet have equivalent mechanisms. Companies find it difficult to obtain operational feedback, testing fields are physically limited, and strict regulations constrain experimentation. As military technologies in Japan and other peacetime countries lag behind, the risks are increasing. North Korean units in Ukraine may have gained operational experience using drones in combat. If North Korea acquires and applies drone technology with Russian support, both Japan and South Korea could find themselves at a military disadvantage.

The rising competition, not only in the military domain but also in other areas, necessitates more deliberate government action. The multilateral trading system is no longer functioning as intended, considering the increase in non-market policies and practices. China produces a number of goods far exceeding global demand, and government policies and investments by large corporations drive technological innovation, while major countries are strengthening their management of supply chains for strategic materials. All of this challenges the fundamental functions of free trade, and until full trust in the World Trade Organization is restored through the recovery of dispute resolution mechanisms, countries lack effective remedies against harmful practices.

Countries like Japan must secure their position in the global supply chain while reducing dependencies that could be exploited by others to protect their economic autonomy and vitality. Nations must ensure access to strategic materials, including rare earths, protect critical infrastructure for power, water, and communications, support research and development, invest in critical and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and space, and manage the export of advanced technologies, including cutting-edge semiconductors. Japan has begun implementing such measures with the Economic Security Promotion Act and related legislation in 2022. In the coming years, government intervention and close coordination with friendly nations will remain essential.

Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's government has decided to spend a year revising Japan's national security strategy. This allows time for the Japanese public to address the new realities that require a strategic response. The tensions in today's world are unsustainably high. While countries take necessary measures to protect themselves, it is crucial to emphasize diplomatic engagement. Direct communication among rivals helps reduce friction, and refusing dialogue rarely leads to the intended outcomes.

Adapting to complex security threats and a new relationship with the United States requires strong defense, intelligence, and economic capabilities. However, addressing a future that is less tense and more cohesive will require diplomacy. Japan is committed to closely cooperating with partner countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to create a prosperous and sustainable economy in the Indo-Pacific region, marking the 50th anniversary of the partnership in 2023. It also regularly hosts meetings with African leaders, having conducted 34 bilateral talks with leaders, including then-Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, at the latest meeting held in Yokohama in August 2025.

The challenges Japan faces are unprecedented. However, by deepening cooperation with like-minded countries, clarifying strategic priorities, and maintaining dialogue with its citizens, Japan can navigate this perilous era and contribute to building a more stable regional order. This effort requires a comprehensive approach that encompasses not only the enhancement of military capabilities but also diplomacy, economic security, and the maintenance of an order based on international law.