NATO's Frequent Actions in the Arctic: Is War Preparation Heating Up?

Recently, NATO confirmed that the permanent location of its third Joint Air Operations Center is within the Arctic Circle. At the same time, NATO has been conducting large-scale military exercises in the Arctic region. Countries such as the United States and Russia are also frequently conducting weapon tests and combat training in the Arctic and cold regions. What new dynamics are emerging from the multidimensional games among the relevant parties in the Arctic region?

What is the intention?

Data map: Norwegian Army conducts military exercises (Source: China National Defense News)

From March 9 to 20, the "Cold Response" military exercise, led by Norway, was held in the waters and land surrounding Norway and Finland, with participation from 14 NATO countries, including the United States, and approximately 25,000 military personnel. Previously, NATO had officially agreed to designate the air station in Bodø, Norway, as the permanent location for the third Joint Air Operations Center.

Recently, NATO has been very active in the Arctic direction; what is its intention? Military observer Cao Weidong provided an analysis on this.

Cao Weidong:

From a military perspective, this reflects how NATO countries are engaging with Russia in cold regions. Especially after Finland and Sweden joined NATO, the Arctic region, except for Russia, is now comprised entirely of NATO countries, thus NATO views Russia as its main adversary. Additionally, a new situation has emerged recently where the United States has proposed to purchase Greenland, which is an autonomous territory of Denmark. This contradiction has caused the purpose of NATO's internal exercises to diverge.

Temperature of Attitudes

Data map: U.S. Army soldiers participate in NATO live-fire exercises (Source: China National Defense News)

Recently, the United States has consecutively been absent from NATO's "Steadfast Defender" and "Arctic Resolve" exercises, which has drawn public attention to its participation in the "Cold Response" exercise. Why is there a difference in the U.S. participation attitude in NATO-organized exercises? Military observer Zhang Xuefeng provided the following analysis.

Zhang Xuefeng:

The United States will choose whether to participate in NATO exercises based on its own military needs; at the same time, NATO member countries will also decide whether to invite the U.S. to participate based on their own exercise needs and strategic objectives. The reason the U.S. did not participate in the "Arctic Resolve-2026" exercise is that it was led by Denmark and was largely aimed at addressing the U.S.'s previous series of statements regarding the occupation of Greenland.

Currently, the Greenland crisis has temporarily subsided, and cooperation between the U.S. and other Nordic countries in the Arctic region has somewhat resumed, which is why the U.S. participated in the "Cold Response" exercise this time. In a sense, the frequency of joint exercises organized by the U.S. and NATO allies can be seen as a "barometer" of U.S.-European relations.

Extreme Cold Test

Data map: U.S. soldiers conduct snowmobile cross-country training (Source: China National Defense News)

Regarding the U.S. military's capability to operate in cold regions, Zhang Xuefeng believes that the U.S. military's combat capability highly depends on technological and equipment advantages, but these advantages may not be fully realized in the special climate of cold regions.

Zhang Xuefeng:

The U.S. military's technical equipment is relatively advanced, with a strong degree of systematization, and it also has some units specialized in cold region operations, such as the 11th Airborne Division stationed in Alaska. However, if the U.S. military operates in high-cold areas like the Arctic Circle, the long-term deployment of a large number of advanced weapons and equipment will place extremely high demands on its logistics and equipment support. Without a complete system to support it, sending only a small number of troops may result in the U.S. military's operational adaptability and tactical level being inferior to that of local forces that have been conducting exercises in high-cold regions for a long time.

Russian Deterrence

Zhang Xuefeng believes that Russia will continue to strengthen its military deployment in the Arctic direction in order to enhance its deterrent capability against the United States and NATO.

Zhang Xuefeng:

Russia has a clear advantage in the Arctic region. The Russian military possesses over 40 icebreakers and is the only country in the world with nuclear-powered icebreakers. Additionally, Russia has multiple military bases in the Arctic region, such as the Kola Peninsula, where two-thirds of Russia's maritime nuclear deterrent forces are stationed. In the future, one of Russia's strategies in the Arctic will be to strengthen the deployment of important weaponry, particularly to conduct nuclear deterrence against NATO and the United States from the Arctic direction.

Reporter: Zhu Jiang, Yu Lan