Report shows: Global defense spending to increase by 2.5% in 2025

According to a report by Reference News Network on February 28, the British think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies released the 2026 edition of the "Military Balance" report on February 24, stating that global defense spending will rise to $2.63 trillion in 2025, an increase of 2.5% year-on-year. The report notes that driven by factors such as "competition between major powers and protracted conflicts," the proportion of defense spending in global GDP rose from 1.89% to 2.01%.

Experts indicate that in the future, Europe and many Asian countries will be forced to adapt to a situation where "the United States is no longer willing to bear all security responsibilities," while Russia will consolidate its military strength in the context of "ongoing strategic competition."

Bastian Giegerich, the director of the institute, pointed out that the United States will still lead global defense spending in 2025, but the increase will be more moderate compared to the previous year, as "the U.S. will focus on defending its own territory and will require allies to share more security responsibilities."

Giegerich noted that Europe committed last June to allocate 5% of GDP to defense and security spending by 2035, but its defense investment had already reached "record levels" even before this commitment. Therefore, in 2025, Europe's defense spending will reach $563 billion, accounting for 21% of global total spending, compared to 17% in 2022.

Germany is the main driver of the increase in European defense spending, with an investment of about $107 billion, followed by the United Kingdom ($94.3 billion), France ($70 billion), Italy ($40.1 billion), and Poland ($33.2 billion).

The International Institute for Strategic Studies states that Russia's defense spending in 2025 will be about $186.2 billion. Russia's actual military spending has only increased by 3%, far below the 56.9% increase in 2024. Nevertheless, military spending still accounts for more than 7.3% of its GDP, more than double the 3.6% in 2021.

Giegerich pointed out that the ongoing war has imposed significant costs on Moscow, but the Russian central bank has managed to "keep the war machine running."

Land warfare expert Ruven Stewart noted that Europe has sufficient troop numbers to counter Russia, but a lack of political coordination limits Europe's operational autonomy.

The report also states that military spending in the Middle East and North Africa will reach $219 billion in 2025, with Algeria and Israel continuing to drive regional defense spending growth, while some of Iran's military capabilities have been weakened under the interventions of Israel and the United States.

According to a report by AFP on February 24, the International Institute for Strategic Studies stated in its annual report that the new defense strategy of the Trump administration has forced European countries to rethink their defense policies, while the four-year war in Ukraine has also prompted countries to seek to enhance their military capabilities.

The 2026 edition of the "Military Balance" report states that global military spending will increase by 2.5% to $2.63 trillion in 2025, with growth slower than in the past five years. Part of the reason is the decline in the U.S. defense budget in 2025—but this decline is unlikely to continue, as defense spending under the Trump administration is expected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2026.

European military spending continues to grow, exceeding $560 billion. However, the report states that European countries may be constrained by "limited fiscal space." (Translated by Wang Meng)