Sahel 2026: The Terrorist Escalation Challenges New Regional Security Architectures

The bold attack carried out against the Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey during the night of January 28 to 29, 2026, marks a turning point in the asymmetric war tearing through central Sahel. Thirty fighters from the Islamic State's Sahel Province (EIS) orchestrated a coordinated assault on Air Base 101 and the adjacent airport, which houses the headquarters of the Sahel States Alliance (AES). During two hours of intense clashes, the assailants deployed armed drones, mortars, and small arms to strike at the heart of the Nigerien military apparatus.

The material toll is particularly heavy for the Niger Air Force. Five military aircraft were destroyed on the ground: one Diamond DA 42 MPP Guardian surveillance plane, two Cessna 208 Caravan reconnaissance aircraft, one Mil Mi-171Sh assault helicopter, and one TAI Hurkus light attack aircraft. For an air force with a modest fleet, this loss represents a severe blow to its operational capabilities.

The assault on Niamey fits into a regional dynamic of escalating terrorism affecting the entire central Sahel. In Burkina Faso, the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) group, affiliated with Al-Qaeda, has intensified its operations with over 500 attacks recorded in 2025 according to the SITE Intelligence Group. Security analysts estimate that jihadists now control up to 60% of Burkinabé territory. The attack in Titao on February 15 killed 80 soldiers and militiamen as well as at least 20 civilians.

In Mali, the country has only just recovered from the economic blockade imposed by JNIM between September 2025 and early 2026. For three months, jihadists systematically intercepted fuel convoys, causing significant shortages in Bamako.

In the face of this deteriorating security situation, the three AES states launched a unified force of 6,000 soldiers, based in Niamey, in December 2025. This initiative represents the third attempt by the central Sahelian states to establish a joint security mechanism, following the failure of the Multinational Joint Force of Liptako-Gourma and the de facto dissolution of the G5 Sahel Joint Force.

The G5 Sahel suffered from chronic underfunding. Its annual operational budget, initially set at 423 million euros, far exceeded the contributions from member states. The AES states are determined to preserve the independence of their new force by mobilizing domestic resources and diversifying their military cooperation partnerships with Russia, Turkey, Iran, and China.

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced its own initiative in March 2026: the deployment of a force of 2,000 soldiers by the end of 2026, with the ambition of reaching 5,000 troops in the long term. This force aims to combat armed groups that are extending their operations from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso into Nigeria, Benin, and Togo.

In Burkina Faso, up to 10% of the population is now displaced, fleeing areas controlled by armed groups. The evolution of the threat reveals an increasing sophistication of terrorist groups with the use of armed drones, coordination of multi-site assaults, and economic strangulation strategies.

The year 2026 therefore promises to be decisive for the Sahel. The AES unified force and the future ECOWAS force represent two parallel approaches to regional security. The success of these initiatives will depend on their ability to rebuild the diplomatic bridges necessary for effective cross-border coordination against terrorist groups that know no borders.