Strategic Signals Behind the Singapore Airshow: Leap Forward in the PLA's Air Power Projection Capability

2026 Singapore Airshow is not only the most important aerospace event in the Asia-Pacific region but also a key window to observe the military strength and strategic intentions of major powers. China's performance at this airshow, particularly the People's Liberation Army Air Force's (PLAAF) first demonstration of long-range power projection capabilities, marks an important milestone in China's military modernization process.

## Aerial Refueling: From Weakness to Capability Demonstration

The PLAAF's August 1st Aerobatic Team flew to Singapore in J-10C fighter jets, which in itself is not news. What is truly noteworthy is the detail that Chinese state media particularly emphasized: these aircraft flew directly to Singapore via aerial refueling, without any stops.

Aerial refueling capability has long been seen as a significant weakness of the PLA. Although China introduced Russian-made Il-78 tankers as early as the 2000s and developed the Y-20-based Y-20 tanker independently, the practical application and reliability of this capability have been questioned by outsiders. The U.S. Air Force has over 400 KC-135 and KC-46 tankers, capable of providing continuous support to fighter jets and bombers globally. In contrast, the PLA's tanker fleet is estimated to be no more than 20 aircraft and lacks real combat testing.

The flight at this Singapore Airshow covered a distance of over 4,000 kilometers, requiring at least one aerial refueling. China's choice to publicly emphasize this detail conveys a very clear message: the PLAAF's long-range operational capability is transitioning from theoretical planning to actual deployment. This has significant strategic implications for the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and even the more distant Indian Ocean region.

From a technical perspective, successfully executing long-range aerial refueling missions requires coordination across multiple aspects: flight planning for the tankers, fuel management for the fighter jets, precise operations for aerial coupling, communication support, and preparation of alternate airports. The success of this mission indicates that the PLAAF has established relatively mature operational processes in these areas.

## J-35A: Export Ambitions of Stealth Fighters

Inside the exhibition hall, the 1:2 scale model of the J-35A stealth multirole fighter jet displayed by Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) occupied the most prominent position. Although technical details are limited, its strategic intent is already clear: this is China's "F-35 alternative" presented to potential buyers.

The J-35A is a land-based version developed from the naval variant FC-31, featuring a twin-engine medium layout and a stealth design that draws on the experiences of the F-35 and J-20. Compared to the U.S. F-35, the J-35's advantages lie in its price and political conditions. The unit price of the F-35 exceeds $80 million and is subject to strict export controls and U.S. Congressional approval processes. Many countries, even if interested in purchasing, may be denied or face harsh conditions for political reasons.

China's strategy targets countries that cannot afford or access the F-35. Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Indonesia are all potential customers. Particularly after Pakistan used the J-10CE to shoot down an Indian "Rafale" fighter in 2025, the reputation of Chinese fighters in the international market has significantly improved. This combat victory proves that Chinese aircraft are not merely "cheap alternatives" but are also competitive in real combat.

However, for the J-35 to truly establish a foothold in the international market, it still faces numerous challenges. First is engine reliability. The FC-31 prototype used the Russian RD-93 engine, but the export version is likely to switch to the domestically produced WS-19 engine. The performance and reliability of this engine have not been fully validated. Second is the integration of avionics systems and weapons. The core competitiveness of the U.S. F-35 lies not only in its stealth but also in its advanced sensor fusion and data link systems. China still lags behind the U.S. in this regard. Finally, there is the after-sales support system. Maintenance and upgrades account for a significant portion of the total lifecycle cost of modern fighters. Whether China can establish a global technical support network will directly impact customers' purchasing decisions.

## Geopolitical Context: Space Left by Trump's Ally Policy

China's strong performance at this airshow cannot be separated from the current geopolitical context. After the Trump administration returned to the White House, it adopted a more transactional attitude towards allies, openly criticizing some Asia-Pacific partners for insufficient defense spending and imposing tariffs on multiple countries. This approach has raised doubts among Southeast Asian nations about the long-term security commitments of the U.S.

Traditionally, Southeast Asian countries' defense procurement has been dominated by U.S., European, and Russian equipment, but in recent years, the share of Chinese equipment has been gradually increasing. Thailand has purchased VT-4 tanks and S26T submarines, while Myanmar, Cambodia, and Laos have extensively used Chinese equipment. At the Singapore Airshow, defense officials from multiple countries observed the Chinese military exhibition, reflecting this trend.

A Western defense industry executive candidly stated, "We still see the same delegations, but the content of the dialogue has changed." This means that even if there is no immediate shift in procurement orders, China has become an option that these countries cannot ignore. Especially in the context of supply chain diversification, the risks of relying entirely on a single source are increasing.

China's strategy is very clear: it does not aim to immediately replace the U.S. but to gradually establish influence, making more countries consider China as an alternative in defense procurement. Once the geopolitical environment changes or U.S. supplies face issues, China can quickly fill the gap.

## Long-term Layout in Commercial Aviation

In addition to military equipment, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) once again showcased the C919 narrow-body passenger aircraft and displayed a model of the C929 wide-body aircraft. The C929 project was previously a collaboration with Russia but has now turned into a purely Chinese project, reflecting that cooperation between China and Russia in high-end technology fields is not stable.

Southeast Asia is viewed by China as a priority market for commercial aircraft, with countries like Indonesia expressing interest. However, to break the monopoly of Airbus and Boeing, China still has a long way to go. Airworthiness certification, global after-sales networks, and pilot training systems are all significant challenges. Nevertheless, China's strategy is to enter the market through the replacement parts sector, leveraging airlines' concerns about global supply chain shortages to gradually expand market share.

## Conclusion: Strategic Patience and Long-term Game

The 2026 Singapore Airshow showcased not only the technological advancements of the PLA but also China's long-term strategic layout in military and commercial fields. From the J-10C's long-range aerial refueling flight to the J-35A's export positioning, and the market promotion of the C919, the consistent message from China is: we have the capability, patience, and determination to become a significant player in the global military and aviation markets.

The core of this strategy is not short-term sales performance but long-term influence shaping. China is acutely aware of its technological gaps with the U.S. and Europe, but it also sees opportunities arising from geopolitical changes. Through continuous technological advancements, flexible business strategies, and targeted diplomatic efforts, China is gradually changing the landscape of the global military and aviation industries.

For Asia-Pacific countries, China's rise means more choices but also more complex strategic calculations. How to maintain a balance between China and the U.S., and how to make trade-offs between economic interests and security concerns, will be the core challenges these countries face in the next decade. For the PLA, the enhancement of aerial power projection capabilities is just one aspect of its comprehensive modernization process. From the Taiwan Strait to the South China Sea, from the Indian Ocean to the Western Pacific, China's military activity range is continuously expanding, which will profoundly impact the strategic landscape of the region and even the world.