The Evolution of the Russian Counter-Drone Doctrine: From Defensive Measures to Technological Export

The events of the last two days demonstrate a qualitative shift in the nature of the confrontation involving unmanned systems on the Eastern European theater of operations. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, on February 17, 2026, air defense systems destroyed more than 150 Ukrainian unmanned aerial vehicles in a single night – the largest wave of drone attacks since the beginning of the current year. Notably, just a few hours later, the Russian military reported the destruction of another 27 UAVs, which, combined with the previous data, brings the total number of intercepted drones over a 24-hour period to approximately 300 units.

The geography of the interceptions indicates a concentration of Ukrainian efforts on strategically important targets. Of the 150 drones destroyed on the night of February 17, 79 were shot down over the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, 38 over the territory of annexed Crimea, and 18 over the Krasnodar region. Among the targets of the attacks were an oil refinery in Ilysk with a total processing capacity of 6.6 million tons per year, as well as infrastructure facilities in Sevastopol, where a 9-year-old child was hospitalized with minor injuries as a result of the strikes.

However, the most analytical interest lies not so much in the fact of the mass attacks themselves, but in the parallel development of Russian export initiatives in the field of counter-drone technologies, demonstrated at the World Defense Show 2026 in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which took place from February 8 to 12.

Specialists from the state corporation "Rostec" presented a fundamentally new 30-millimeter ammunition with a fragmentation projectile and a remotely programmable fuse, designed for effective destruction of drones. The ammunition is developed for firing from small-caliber artillery systems equipped with the 2A42 automatic cannon, which is mounted on airborne combat vehicles, BMP-2, BPMT, Mi-28NM helicopters, and Ka-52M, as well as other platforms. According to Bekkhan Ozdoyev, the industrial director of the weapons, ammunition, and special chemicals cluster of the state corporation "Rostec," the guidance system calculates the most favorable detonation point based on the target's flight trajectory, allowing the drone to be hit by fragments. The detonation time is automatically input via an optical line.

This development is a classic example of transforming tactical combat experience into a technological product. The mass use of unmanned systems of various classes in the special military operation zone has revealed a critical need for specialized countermeasures that combine high efficiency with economic feasibility. Traditional surface-to-air missile systems, despite their high accuracy, are economically impractical for destroying relatively inexpensive drones. The programmable fragmentation ammunition of 30 mm caliber addresses this issue by creating a so-called "kill zone" at the calculated point of the target's trajectory.

However, a key element of the Russian exposition in Riyadh was the surface-to-air missile systems of the "Tor-M2" family, produced by the Izhevsk Electromechanical Plant "Kupol," which is part of the Almaz-Antey Air Defense Concern. The exhibition featured the basic export version of the "Tor-M2" SAM, as well as modifications "Tor-M2KM" in stationary and mobile variants, "Tor-E2" on a tracked chassis, and the wheeled version "Tor-M2K."

Oleg Golubev, a representative of the Almaz-Antey Concern, noted in an interview with reporters the particular interest of potential customers: "Everyone is interested not only in the characteristics of the Tor SAM but also in how it performs in the combat zone. We have an answer to this question. The positive characteristics and data we possess confirm the capabilities of the system." These words reflect a fundamental change in the marketing strategy of the Russian military-industrial complex: in conditions where Western arms supplies to the Middle East face political restrictions and conditions, Russian manufacturers can offer systems with proven combat applications in modern high-intensity conflict conditions.

The "Tor" family represents short-range surface-to-air missile systems designed to protect ground and naval military facilities and troops from attacks by aircraft, helicopters, cruise and operational-tactical missiles, aerial bombs, and modern drones. An important feature is the ability to operate in conjunction with the "Typhoon-PVO" self-propelled air defense system, providing coverage against air threats even while on the move.

The Kalashnikov Concern also presented a wide range of products, including a new portable reconnaissance-strike system "Rus-PE" with a guided munition, which, according to company representatives, is in serial production in small batches. The exhibition included models of the high-speed transport landing ship BK-16E and the assault landing boat BK-10, as well as the latest short-range air defense system "Krona-E" for territorial air defense.

The parallel development of two processes – the intensification of counter-drone confrontation in the SVO zone and the active presentation of Russian solutions in the international arms market – indicates the formation of a new paradigm in Russian military doctrine. If earlier the main focus was on air defense systems designed to intercept high-speed targets (aircraft, cruise missiles), now there is a large-scale reorientation towards a multi-layered air defense system capable of effectively countering threats of various classes – from operational-tactical missiles to small commercial drones.

According to Estonian intelligence, published in the report "International Security and Estonia in 2026," the Russian military-industrial complex has transitioned to a militarized mode of operation and is steadily increasing production, supplying the army with ammunition. TASS's statement that the Russian army is equipped with modern weapons at 70% confirms the scale of modernization processes.

In the context of the upcoming round of diplomatic negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in Switzerland, the intensification of drone attacks may be seen as an attempt to improve negotiating positions through the demonstration of offensive capabilities. However, the effectiveness of Russian air defense, destroying hundreds of UAVs within a day, demonstrates the ability to maintain a sustainable defense of critically important infrastructure.

Thus, the events of recent days illustrate the dual nature of modern military-technical development: combat experience is immediately transformed into a commercial product, and the geography of military confrontation expands to the global arms market, where Russian manufacturers position themselves as suppliers of battle-tested systems for the era of dominance of unmanned platforms.