The situation in Donbas affects Russia-U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, with Russia and Ukraine each insisting on who controls Luhansk.

[Global Times Special Correspondent in Russia, Xiao Xinxin] The Russian Ministry of Defense reported on the 1st that the Russian military has completely controlled the Luhansk region, which the Ukrainian military subsequently denied. This announcement from the Russian side came just before Ukrainian President Zelensky's video call with U.S. representatives and others that evening to discuss resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

According to the Associated Press, the spokesperson for the Joint Forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Trehubov, stated on the evening of the 1st that the situation in the Luhansk region "has not changed at all," and that the 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has long been holding a small area in the region. Reports indicate that since the outbreak of the conflict, Russia and Ukraine have been fiercely contesting control of the Donbas region, which mainly consists of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Russian media reports suggest that Russia's complete control of the Luhansk region has significant strategic importance, allowing the Russian military to concentrate its forces to advance into the Donetsk region.

Reuters reported that Zelensky has claimed in recent weeks that the U.S. is pressuring Ukraine to make concessions, such as withdrawing from the Donbas region, in order to quickly end the conflict. However, Zelensky stated on the evening of the 1st that the talks with U.S. representatives were "positive." U.S. participants included President Trump's envoy, Witkoff, and Trump's son-in-law, Kushner. After the talks, Zelensky stated that all parties agreed to maintain close contact in the coming days to strengthen security guarantees between Ukraine and the U.S.

According to the Ukrainian News Agency on the 2nd, Trehubov reiterated that the Russian claims are "not true." Although the Russian military controls most of the Luhansk region, the Ukrainian military still holds a strategically significant area, and there have been no major changes in the recent situation. The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated on the evening of the 1st that Russia is attempting to "virtually" control the area through "lies and false propaganda," but the brigade is still holding the last line of defense and controlling several settlements. Reports from the Associated Press and others indicate that the Russian side's claims about the progress of the fighting in the Luhansk region have shown multiple reversals and contradictions. Russian leaders stated last October that the Ukrainian military controlled only about 0.13% of the region. In June of last year, the leader appointed by Russia in the region, Pasechnik, claimed that the Russian military had controlled the entire region. In July 2022, the Russian Ministry of Defense also stated that the Russian military had completely controlled the region. Reports suggest that this may indicate that Russia's so-called complete control of the region is not stable, and the fierce contest between Russia and Ukraine will continue.

The Russian newspaper "Moskovsky Komsomolets" on the 2nd cited military experts analyzing that the Luhansk region is the first of the four regions in eastern Ukraine to be completely controlled by Russia. This achievement is a "milestone" key progress and stage in the special military operation, with significant military and political implications. It opens the door for the Russian military to advance its concentrated offensive in the Donetsk region, particularly to capture key northern towns such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, which are the last strong defensive hubs of the Ukrainian military. Currently, only 15% of the Donetsk region is under Ukrainian military control. Furthermore, this achievement will greatly enhance Russia's negotiating position, increase pressure on Ukraine, and influence future negotiation terms.

According to an analysis cited by the Russian news agency on the 1st, Russia's complete control of the Luhansk region has boosted the morale of the Russian military and weakened the already fragile momentum of the Ukrainian military. This also indicates that Russia does not hold hope for the Ukrainian side's "empty talk and showy" negotiations and will continue to launch offensives, with Russia's future negotiating position likely to become more hardline. Ukrainian news outlets such as "ukr.net" believe that Russia's so-called achievements are merely for propaganda purposes and do not fundamentally affect the situation on the battlefield. It took Russia several years to control less than 1% of the Luhansk region, let alone the remaining areas of the Donetsk region, which will require even more time and further deplete Russia's manpower and resources. The Russian "Military Observation Network" stated on the 2nd that this achievement will further compress Ukraine's military and political strategic space, leaving Ukraine without sufficient confidence and strength on the Donbas issue. As the U.S. shifts its focus to the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine-U.S. talks are postponed, Ukraine's predicament is becoming increasingly severe, while the likelihood of Russia compromising in negotiations has significantly decreased.

Additionally, according to the Russian newspaper "Moskovsky Komsomolets," Russian presidential aide Ushakov stated on the 1st that if Zelensky decides to withdraw Ukrainian troops from the Donbas region, it would open up prospects for resolving many issues, including the cessation of military actions. A member of the Russian negotiating team, Deputy Foreign Minister Galuzin, stated on the 1st that the U.S. is currently trying to persuade Ukraine to agree to the compromise proposal put forward by Russia and the U.S. This proposal focuses on the root causes of the conflict and the current battlefield situation.