The Strait of Hormuz "Opens and Closes" - Where is the US-Iran "Tug of War" Heading?

In the past two days, Iran first announced the reopening and then the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, despite U.S. President Trump again claiming that the U.S. and Iran are "close" to reaching an agreement, Iran stated that it has not yet agreed to hold a new round of negotiations with the U.S.

Why has Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz again? Why is the U.S. frequently releasing so-called "optimistic" signals about negotiations? What key issues are the U.S. and Iran currently "tugging" over?

Why Block the Strait Again

Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif stated on social media on the 17th that, in light of the ceasefire reached between Lebanon and Israel, Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz to all merchant ships during the ceasefire. Trump subsequently posted a message reiterating this but emphasized that the U.S. "maritime blockade against Iran will continue to be effective."

On the 18th, the Central Headquarters of the Iranian Armed Forces, the Secretariat of the Supreme National Security Council, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy announced that, due to the U.S. violating the ceasefire commitment and continuing to impose a maritime blockade on Iran, Iran has resumed control over navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy issued a statement saying that Iran began blocking the Strait of Hormuz from the evening of the 18th. The statement warned that all vessels in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman must not leave their anchorages, and approaching the Strait of Hormuz will be regarded as "collaboration with the enemy," with violators becoming targets for attack.

On the 18th, Trump told the media that Iran wants to block the strait again, "They cannot intimidate us." According to U.S. officials, Trump held a meeting that day to discuss Iran's renewed blockade of the strait and subsequent negotiations with Iran, attended by Vice President Pence, Secretary of State Rubio, Secretary of Defense Hegseth, and others.

Why the U.S. Frequently Releases "Optimistic" Signals

The U.S. and Iran reached a two-week ceasefire on April 8, and negotiations were held on the 11th in Pakistan, but no breakthroughs were achieved. In recent days, Trump has repeatedly stated that the U.S. and Iran may negotiate again this weekend, and the two sides are "very close to reaching an agreement."

On the 18th, Iran's Tasnim News Agency quoted relevant Iranian departments reporting that due to the U.S. imposing a maritime blockade on Iran and making excessive demands during negotiations, Iran has not yet agreed to hold the next round of talks with the U.S.

International media have generally noted that there is a "temperature difference" in the statements regarding the progress of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. Al Jazeera analyzed that Trump is trying to convey an "optimistic" signal, reflecting that "he is looking for a way out," as "this war is extremely unpopular in the U.S., with soaring gasoline prices and rising commodity prices."

Yazid Saig, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center based in Lebanon, believes that in the context of the "blockage" of the Strait of Hormuz leading to rising prices for gasoline, fertilizers, and other goods, Trump seems to be exaggerating the progress of dialogue between the U.S. and Iran, aiming to "boost the market, lower oil prices, and raise the stock market," thereby relieving pressure on his administration.

What Issues Are Both Sides "Tugging" Over

According to Iranian media reports on the 18th, Iranian Islamic Consultative Assembly Speaker Ghalibaf stated that the U.S.-Iran negotiations have made preliminary progress, but there is still a "large" gap from a final agreement. He also emphasized that the negotiations have not fully resolved Iran's distrust of the U.S. On several core issues, Iran will never compromise or back down.

From the information released by both the U.S. and Iran, it appears that the two sides have exchanged views on three key issues recently, but still find it difficult to bridge their differences.

The first is the issue of Iran's high-enriched uranium. Trump stated on the 17th that the U.S. will "work with Iran" to remove Iran's enriched uranium and transport it to the U.S. Sources familiar with the U.S. side revealed to the media that the U.S. is prepared to unfreeze $20 billion of Iranian funds in exchange for Iran handing over its enriched uranium stockpile. However, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Khatibzadeh stated on the 18th during a forum in Turkey that Iran's enriched uranium "will not be sent to the U.S.," and "that is impossible."

The second is the issue of Iran's right to enrich uranium. Trump stated on the 17th that "Iran has agreed to indefinitely suspend its nuclear program." An anonymous Iranian official denied this in an interview with CNN on the 18th. Other sources familiar with the U.S. side stated that in the last round of negotiations, the U.S. demanded that Iran suspend its uranium enrichment activities for 20 years, while Iran proposed a suspension of 5 years, which the U.S. did not accept.

The third is the issue of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. A U.S. official told The Wall Street Journal on the 18th that the U.S. military plans to conduct boarding inspections and seizures of tankers related to Iran in international waters in the coming days. On the same day, an anonymous U.S. official told Axios that if a diplomatic breakthrough is not achieved soon, the U.S. and Iran may reignite hostilities in a few days.

Paul Masgrave, an associate professor at Georgetown University in Qatar, believes that although the U.S. and Iran maintain dialogue, their military confrontation may "last for a while," as both sides have not yet reached their respective "political breaking points."

Reporters: Wu Baoshu, He Yiping, Chen Xiao