Structural Changes Brought by Takai's Election Victory to the Japan-U.S. Alliance

In the House of Representatives election on February 8, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) surged from 198 seats before the dissolution to over 233 seats. What this number signifies is not merely political stability. Prime Minister Sanae Takai's statement last November that "a crisis in Taiwan could pose an existential threat to Japan" has effectively gained national approval.

The Reality of Defense Spending

Within just a few months of taking office, the Takai administration has achieved its goal of defense-related spending reaching 2% of GDP, two years ahead of the initial plan. However, this is not the end.

Last week, Deputy Foreign Minister Takeuchi Kenyu met with Assistant Secretary of Defense Elbridge Colby in Tokyo. Colby welcomed Seoul's decision to raise its defense spending to 3.5% of GDP just before his visit to Japan. The new U.S. defense strategy document calls for allied nations to increase their spending to 5% of GDP.

Considering Japan's fiscal situation, 5% is unrealistic. However, the path to 3.5% is becoming an unavoidable discussion.

The Uncharted Territory of Constitutional Reform

The LDP's election manifesto explicitly states the need for constitutional reform, the first since the post-war era. This addresses the issue of clarifying the constitutional status of the Self-Defense Forces, a challenge that previous administrations have shied away from.

The barrier of securing two-thirds in the House of Councillors remains high. However, the overwhelming victory in the House of Representatives has transformed this discussion from an "ideal to be realized someday" to a "task to be undertaken within this term."

North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles toward the Sea of Japan on January 27. Vessels from the China Coast Guard have normalized their activities around the Senkaku Islands. There is no doubt that the deterioration of the security environment is driving a change in public awareness.

The Stiffening of Japan-China Relations

Interestingly, Prime Minister Takai has shown no conciliatory attitude toward China. In response to Beijing's fierce backlash against her Taiwan remarks last November, there were no appeasement gestures typical of previous Japanese governments.

The victory in the election will likely further solidify this stance. The opposition's criticism that "the approach to China is too hardline" has been proven to lack support from the majority of the public.

Prime Minister Takai is scheduled to meet with President Trump in March, and Trump is expected to hold a summit with Xi Jinping in April. Japan needs to reaffirm the unity of the alliance to ensure that its interests are not compromised in the U.S.-China negotiations.

Overlooked Issues

Increasing defense spending, constitutional reform, and accelerating equipment procurement are all necessary measures. However, the most serious issue facing the Self-Defense Forces is none of these.

It is personnel acquisition.

In Japan, where the population is aging and declining, the Self-Defense Forces are suffering from chronic personnel shortages. No matter how advanced the equipment is, it is meaningless without the personnel to operate it. If the Takai administration truly wants to strengthen Japan's defense capabilities, it should focus on creating an environment where young people want to aspire to join the Self-Defense Forces, more than on budgets or laws.

A political victory has been achieved. However, unless the number of crew members standing on the bridge of escort ships increases, everything will end up being just a pipe dream. The challenges I have observed in the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force over the past 25 years ultimately come down to the issue of people.