The Yemen Conflict Continues to Escalate: The Houthis' Considerations Regarding the War Are Changing

Recently, the military confrontation between the Houthi armed group in Yemen and Saudi Arabia has continued to escalate. The Houthis have launched a series of cross-border strikes, repeatedly attacking Saudi airports and precisely targeting Saudi energy facilities, resulting in casualties, airport shutdowns, and damage to facilities, leading to a sharp deterioration in regional security.

Currently, the Houthi armed group controls the capital Sana'a and large areas, becoming a "key player" affecting navigation in the Red Sea. Analysts point out that the unique internal power structure of the Houthis combines various capabilities such as military strikes, financial mobilization, and social control, and their growth is rooted in Yemen's domestic politics and social ecology, as well as closely related to regional power struggles.

In its early days, the Houthi armed group was mainly composed of tribal militias from northern Yemen, characterized by a loose organization, lack of training, and outdated weapons. In 2004, the Houthis clashed with the Yemeni government, and subsequently engaged in multiple battles with government forces. The political turmoil in Yemen in 2011 provided the Houthis an opportunity to expand, and they occupied Sana'a in 2014, after which their power continued to grow, gradually impacting Red Sea shipping and Middle Eastern geopolitics. Analysts indicate that the Houthi armed group is a local force born out of Yemen's own political, social, and governance contradictions, and its gradual strengthening is the result of the interplay of organizational capabilities, power structures, and external variables.

First, the combat selection mechanism enhances its organizational resilience. Since 2004, prolonged conflict has led the Houthis to form a selection mechanism: the surviving and core command personnel mostly possess strong military combat experience. The Houthi armed group's weaponry has also become "stronger with each battle." Recent conflicts indicate that the Houthis are capable of not only conducting long-range attacks but also organizing large-scale ground offensives, covertly mobilizing personnel, and coordinating various firepower.

Second, the unique power structure makes it difficult to dismantle. The organizational system of the Houthi armed group has three main characteristics: first, the core power circle is based on family ties and the original "old guard," with close internal relationships; second, the security and intelligence system operates independently of the public power structure, responsible for preventing infiltration and supervising officials and frontline personnel; third, it has a system of supervisors embedded at various local levels, ensuring that even if a leader or commander is killed, the organizational network can continue to function.

Moreover, the Houthis' opponents are not a unified government army but a loose coalition formed by various anti-Houthi forces in Yemen. These forces have different backing, strategic goals, and low levels of mutual trust, resulting in a lack of coordination in combat.

Analysts: The Houthis have no intention of allowing the conflict to continue indefinitely

After taking control of the capital Sana'a, the Houthi armed group faces challenges beyond combat, such as managing a large population. While the Houthis can maintain a military security system, military means are insufficient to address livelihood issues like power outages, unemployment, and economic stagnation. Analysts point out that the Houthis' internal considerations regarding the conflict are changing. From the perspective of the overall situation in Yemen, the Houthis do not wish for the conflict to continue indefinitely, as it becomes increasingly unbearable in terms of casualties, economic losses, and territorial destruction. Regional observers generally believe that if Saudi Arabia reduces its level of intervention or ultimately ends its military involvement, the Houthis may engage in political negotiations with government forces and discuss the establishment of a joint government. However, if Saudi Arabia continues to expand military operations or if the U.S.-Iran conflict further escalates, the Houthis' strategic choices may be adjusted.