Think Tank Warns: U.S. Military Withdrawal from Europe Affects Arms Exports

[Global Times Comprehensive Report] According to a report by the American "Political News Network" on November 1, NATO member countries are preparing for the worst-case scenario that may arise from the U.S. midterm elections. European allies are concerned that if the Republican Party loses the election, U.S. President Trump may significantly escalate pressure on NATO, including the further withdrawal of thousands of U.S. troops from Europe.

In response, the U.S. defense news website quoted a new study from the American think tank RAND Corporation warning that, in the long term, plans for the U.S. to withdraw troops from Europe could drive key NATO allies away from U.S. weapons, thereby harming the U.S. defense industrial base.

The report stated that U.S. Deputy Secretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby proposed the so-called "NATO 3.0" concept in February, calling for Europe to take primary responsibility for its own non-nuclear defense, while U.S. forces would withdraw from Europe and redirect more resources to the Western Hemisphere and the Pacific. Trump has previously suggested withdrawing troops from Europe multiple times. He has consistently believed that NATO allies are "free-riding" on defense spending and has used this as a justification for troop withdrawals. Last year, Trump proposed withdrawing about 20,000 U.S. troops from Europe and demanded that Europe bear the costs for the remaining U.S. forces stationed in Europe.

At Trump's request, the Pentagon has begun to reduce the U.S. military presence in Europe. According to congressional testimony from the commander of U.S. European Command cited in the RAND report, approximately 80,000 U.S. troops are stationed at about 30 bases in Europe as of 2025. In May of this year, the Pentagon announced it would withdraw about 5,000 soldiers from Germany, claiming that "this decision is based on a prudent analysis of the situation of U.S. forces in Europe." In June, the Pentagon also planned to reduce the military forces allocated to NATO in times of crisis by one-third to one-half, involving key capabilities such as strategic bombers, long-range strike forces, some naval assets, and aerial refueling aircraft. U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin subsequently announced a comprehensive review of U.S. forces in Europe at the NATO Defense Ministers' meeting, aiming to ensure that NATO "rapidly and irreversibly" moves toward Europe taking primary responsibility for conventional defense. The review will not only include troop levels but also the number of fighter jets, drones, refueling aircraft, and naval vessels stationed in Europe, with the results setting a framework for the future long-term scale of U.S. forces in Europe.

In its report "Anticipating Allies' Reactions to U.S. Troop Reductions in Europe," RAND assessed the responses of France, Germany, Poland, and the United Kingdom to the reduction of U.S. forces in Europe. The UK has indicated that a sudden U.S. withdrawal would put NATO allies in a difficult position. The report believes that "in the short term, they have no choice but to purchase off-the-shelf equipment—usually from U.S. suppliers—to fill the gap, but in the long term, the breakdown of trust in the U.S. will drive allies to turn to European or domestic alternatives for equipment procurement."

The report noted that Germany and Poland would reach similar conclusions. In particular, part of Germany's procurement of U.S. weapons is to ensure that the U.S. continues to maintain its security commitments to Europe. A sudden U.S. withdrawal would indicate that this strategy has failed, and "Berlin may not see the benefits of continuing to prioritize U.S. companies in arms sales or other transactions." In contrast, a sudden U.S. withdrawal may have little impact on how much France purchases from U.S. defense companies, as Paris is "the most committed among the four allies to reducing dependence on the U.S." French officials told RAND that in wartime, the French military would still rely on U.S. support for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, long-range precision strikes, air defense and missile defense, as well as logistics. Therefore, until France can independently fill these defense capability gaps, Paris will view a sudden U.S. withdrawal as a signal that Washington does not care about the security of its allies.

The report states that European allies reducing their procurement of U.S. weapons due to U.S. troop withdrawals is detrimental to the U.S. defense industrial base. "The main reason for this shift is allies' perceptions of U.S. reliability, rather than losses in U.S. military capabilities." According to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, from 2021 to 2025, the U.S. supplied 58% of the major weapons imported by European NATO member countries, down from 64% in the previous five years. (Chen Shan)