Washington Continues to Issue Threats, Tehran Denies Ongoing Negotiations, US-Iran "Ceasefire" but Alerts Remain Unlifted

[Global Times Correspondent in Egypt Huang Peizhao, Global Times Reporter Xian Yifan, Ren Zhong] As of the evening of the 27th Beijing time, the military confrontation between the United States and Iran remains in a "paused" state. On the 24th, U.S. President Trump decided to suspend strikes against Iran. Prior to this, the U.S. military had conducted airstrikes on Iran for more than ten consecutive days. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft stated on the 26th that the president wants to leave "some space" for negotiations. According to the Wall Street Journal, Trump denied that a shortage of ammunition has become a problem facing the U.S. On the 27th, international oil prices continued to decline, but analysts believe that the current "ceasefire" remains fragile. "The easing of U.S.-Iran conflict has entered a new crossroads," the New York Times stated, noting that although some fronts are temporarily calm, tensions in the Middle East continue following the attack on an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea and the Houthi claims of attacks on Saudi energy facilities. The fighting between the U.S. and Iran appears to have paused, but concerns about a potential escalation remain.

Why suspend strikes against Iran? U.S. media offers various opinions

When asked on a program on NBC on the 26th whether the U.S. had decided not to escalate its strikes against Iran, Craft stated that she "wouldn't say that at all," and that Trump retains "all options." She said the president is leaving "some space" for negotiations. Reports indicate that Craft refuted claims that part of the reason for abandoning the escalation of military action was due to concerns within the U.S. government about ammunition depletion, asserting that the U.S. military "has everything needed to conduct this war." Trump also told the Wall Street Journal, "We have far more ammunition than any country in the world, far beyond our needs." However, some current and former U.S. officials revealed to the media that Pentagon officials have privately expressed strong anxiety, stating that the military urgently needs more funding to replenish ammunition.

According to a report by the Wall Street Journal on the 26th, insiders revealed that the U.S. military originally planned to launch a series of intensive strikes against Iran on the 24th, with operations potentially lasting up to two weeks. However, due to ongoing diplomatic efforts aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and discussions among officials regarding the impact of large-scale strikes on the "Patriot" and other air defense missile stocks, the actions were postponed. Anonymous U.S. officials stated that the president could still order strikes, and the situation remains full of uncertainties.

The Wall Street Journal disclosed that U.S. Army Chief of Staff Milley has informed the White House about the decline in air defense missile stocks. Milley expressed concern, believing that while this issue would not hinder large-scale military operations against Iran, it could increase risks. U.S. Central Command Commander McKenzie believes that the U.S. can cope with the limited air defense missile situation because increasing strikes would weaken Iran's ability to launch a large number of missiles.

Axios reported on the 26th, citing insiders, that earlier last week, McKenzie suggested to the U.S. Department of Defense, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the White House that the next step might be to resume large-scale military operations to complete the remaining 20% of targets designated but not struck during the "Epic Fury" operation. However, he stated that continuing to bomb Iran without resuming large-scale military operations would be meaningless. Reports indicate that McKenzie suggested suspending bombing operations against Iran around the Strait of Hormuz, "which indicates that both Trump's military and civilian advisors acknowledge that military actions, especially airstrikes, have limited effectiveness."

"The U.S.-Iran ceasefire has opened a window for diplomacy." Spain's El Mundo reported on the 27th that the two countries' suspension of airstrikes has sparked hopes for the resumption of diplomatic dialogue, potentially preventing the memorandum of understanding signed over a month ago from completely derailing. Despite signals promoting a return to dialogue, Tehran and Washington continue to engage in a war of words. According to the Israel Times, Trump continued to threaten Iran on the 26th, releasing a series of AI-generated images showing Iranian ships and energy infrastructure being destroyed or occupied by the U.S.

According to the Iranian news agency IRNA, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Baghaei stated at a press conference on the 27th that the U.S. has not successfully controlled this war and is still mired in the conflict. "We have never allowed, nor will we ever allow, the U.S. to unilaterally set the timetable for war and peace. As long as Iran's national interests and security require it, we will fight to the end. When diplomatic means can effectively safeguard Iran's interests, Tehran will not hesitate to use this tool." Baghaei emphasized that currently, Iran is not engaged in any negotiations with the U.S., and the topic of Iran requesting talks with the U.S. is a common tactic used by hostile media forces.

According to the Iranian Mehr News Agency on the 27th, a senior Iranian military official, Rasoul, discussed changes in the regional situation, stating that the U.S. has attempted to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by various means but has never succeeded. Each day the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, the U.S.'s global credibility diminishes. An informed source from the Iranian government stated that the Iranian armed forces will remain on high alert, closely monitoring and decisively addressing any violations of international maritime regulations and incursions into restricted navigation zones.

The "ceasefire" is very fragile

According to NBC, due to the U.S. and Iran suspending the escalating military strikes, oil prices have significantly dropped. On the morning of the 27th, Brent crude futures fell below $90 per barrel, and global stock markets generally rose that day.

U.S. CNBC reported on the 27th that the temporary cessation of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran seems to be maintained, boosting investor confidence. However, experts warn that the prospects for achieving lasting peace face severe challenges. Analysts at Deutsche Bank wrote in a report, "The temporary ceasefire is welcome, but it is very fragile."

IRNA recently published an article stating that in the U.S. government's external statements, threats of military action, continuation of the "maximum pressure" policy, and signals for negotiations always appear simultaneously. This approach not only fails to outline a clear future but also keeps the Middle East situation shrouded in fog.

Some Middle Eastern media claim that the U.S.-Iran standoff has long transcended bilateral boundaries, involving regional forces such as the Houthi movement in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon, with the Mandeb Strait and the Strait of Hormuz being interconnected energy corridors, making localized conflicts easily spill over. According to Al Jazeera, the current situation between the U.S. and Iran is merely a tactical ceasefire, not a true de-escalation, as the underlying contradictions of ongoing competition have not been resolved, and the geopolitical risk alert in the Middle East remains in place.

As the U.S. and Iran pause mutual attacks, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu visits Washington. According to the Israel Times, he departed for the U.S. on the 27th, planning to meet with Trump at the White House on the 28th.

The Pentagon "quietly" changes the way it reports U.S. military casualty data

"The U.S. president has once again reached a crossroads on the Iran issue." CNN reported on the 27th that each time the U.S. reaches such a crossroads, its choices become increasingly limited, and the cost of taking any action becomes higher. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Iran conflict remains a significant political challenge for the White House. A recent poll by CBS/YouGov indicates the confusion in the U.S. government's external communications, with only 31% of American respondents believing they have a clear understanding of the situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Additionally, 40% of respondents believe the U.S. holds the advantage in the conflict, while 76% of respondents stated that the Iran conflict is more difficult than the U.S. government anticipated.

As voices of questioning emerge in U.S. public opinion regarding "how many Americans the government is willing to risk for this war," the Pentagon has recently come under controversy for attempting to "downplay" U.S. military casualties in the Iran conflict. According to the New York Times, as of the morning of the 25th local time, the Pentagon's website showed the number of U.S. military deaths as 14, excluding four soldiers who died in the latest conflict after the ceasefire agreement was broken on July 7. The Guardian reported that the U.S. government is attempting to statistically separate the "Epic Fury" operation from the latest outbreak of conflict. Under the U.S. War Powers Act, the president cannot deploy U.S. forces into hostilities for more than 60 days without congressional authorization, but there is an additional maximum 30-day withdrawal period.

"The Pentagon quietly changed its reporting method." CNN stated that the Defense Casualty Analysis System website, which is part of the U.S. Department of Defense, updated its data on the 26th, showing that since the joint large-scale military operation against Iran launched by the U.S. and Israel on February 28, the total number of U.S. military casualties has reached 642, including 18 deaths. The number of injured is 142 more than previously reported by the Pentagon. Reports indicate that the "Defense Casualty Analysis System" has added a new "overseas operations" tracking category to separately account for U.S. military casualties since July 7.

The Guardian stated that the Pentagon's actions have drawn criticism from both parties in the U.S. Congress. Republican Congressman Mike wrote on social media, "The Pentagon is pretending that two wars against Iran have broken out, separated only by a brief ceasefire. The reality is: military operations without congressional authorization have exceeded 90 days, and Secretary of Defense Esper has violated the law; he must be held accountable."