Why Are Iran's Missile Strikes So Precise?

According to a report by Reference News Network on April 5 Iran's ballistic missiles have proven to be more accurate in striking targets in other Gulf countries than previously anticipated. Analysis of satellite images of the liquefied natural gas facility at Ras Laffan Industrial City in Qatar confirms this.

On the two production lines of the attacked LNG plant, the missiles accurately hit the cooling towers, which are central to production.

However, if it were not for one of Iran's ballistic missiles subsequently hitting one of the few airborne early warning aircraft deployed by the U.S. military at Prince Sultan Air Base in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, these two hits might have been regarded as an extremely low-probability coincidence.

This raises the question: How did Iran achieve such precise strikes? A German defense industry expert acknowledged, “The West has long underestimated Iran, both in terms of the number of ballistic missiles it possesses and its technological capabilities.”

The core navigation system of such missiles is essentially a so-called inertial navigation system. This is a technology that measures lateral, longitudinal, altitude, and rotational acceleration. Early intercontinental ballistic missiles recorded real mass acceleration mechanically, whereas today it is achieved using lasers. As the beam accelerates, its frequency changes, allowing for the detection of the slightest movements. Nowadays, with just this technology, the accuracy of intercontinental ballistic missiles can reach within 100 meters. Moreover, the shorter the missile's range, the higher the accuracy.

This technology is now widely used. For example, modern cars are equipped with various acceleration sensors, which can also be used in missiles. According to security experts, Iranian weapon manufacturers have the capability to write their own signal processing programs.

The next step in trajectory optimization occurs during flight. Since small deviations shortly after launch can be amplified, corrections to the trajectory are necessary. This can be achieved through satellite navigation or by using so-called star sensors. Star sensors locate themselves through the starry sky outside the atmosphere. This trajectory correction typically occurs at the apex of the ballistic trajectory. The expert stated that this technology is now publicly available, and the Iranians may be able to obtain it through indirect means. However, for flights within 1,000 kilometers, this technology is not absolutely necessary.

To locate targets without satellite navigation, these missiles may also be equipped with radar guidance systems. Even if the missile heats up due to atmospheric friction during re-entry, the radar guidance system can still function—at least for missiles with a range of up to 1,000 kilometers.

This technology is not new; the U.S. "Pershing"-2 missile used it as early as the 1980s. However, modern radar and computer technology have significantly enhanced the performance of this technology. The guidance system only needs to make very small course corrections to generate a three-dimensional radar image of the target area.

The system can detect structures such as the cooling towers or fuel tanks of the LNG plant with great precision. By comparing the detection results with digital map data stored in a computer, the missile can correct its trajectory at the last moment, achieving high-precision strikes. “It only takes two small maneuvers to achieve extremely high accuracy,” the expert explained, “The missile autonomously completes all these operations. I am very confident that the Iranians have mastered and are using this technology.”

So, where did the Iranian regime acquire this technological knowledge? In fact, Iran has a long history in missile manufacturing. During the first Gulf War in the early 1980s, Iran was unable to cope with the Soviet missiles possessed by Iraq. Subsequently, Iran established a partnership with North Korea, and today there is deep cooperation between the two countries.

The recent launch of the "Khoramshahr" ballistic missile by Iran at Diego Garcia, a U.S.-UK joint military base located about 4,000 kilometers away in the Indian Ocean, is clearly a result of this cooperation. Although the missile is manufactured in Iran, its design blueprint appears to come from North Korea.

This is not a new development. The expert stated, “They have had these weapons for 10 to 15 years.” But it is only now that people realize these weapons can withstand the test not only in tests but also in real combat against the planet's most powerful adversaries. (Translated by Nie Litiao)

This article was published on April 1 by the German magazine WirtschaftsWoche, titled "Why Are Iran's Ballistic Missiles So Accurate?" The author is Thomas Stelzer.