Analysis & Reports

AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources

Strikes on "Pantsirs" Change Russian Defense in Eastern Ukraine in Autumn 2026

Strikes on "Pantsirs" Change Russian Defense in Eastern Ukraine in Autumn 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Ukrainian forces destroyed a Russian Pantsir-S2 air defense system, command posts, and drone launch sites on September 28, 2026, following a night of Russian drone strikes involving 165 drones. This shift in Ukrainian tactics focuses on targeting the ground elements of the Russian drone system rather than just the drones themselves. The ongoing conflict reflects a significant operational change in the eastern front of Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Sep 28 2026

The strike of "Zircons" on Kyiv showed the limits of Russian missile escalation in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

On September 24, 2026, Russian Armed Forces conducted a massive attack on Kyiv, deploying nearly 300 drones and 4 Zircon missiles. The assault coincided with Ukrainian President Zelensky's speech at the UN, highlighting Russia's military escalation amid diplomatic pressures. Ukrainian air defense reportedly intercepted around 60% of the incoming missiles, raising concerns about the effectiveness and cost of Russia's missile strategy.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Sep 24 2026
Russian Shahed and 514 Drones Change the Logic of Air Warfare over Ukraine

Russian Shahed and 514 Drones Change the Logic of Air Warfare over Ukraine

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Russian Armed Forces conducted airstrikes targeting civilian infrastructure in Kyiv on September 23, 2026, using 514 drones. This operation follows a diplomatic meeting between Ukrainian President Zelensky and U.S. President Trump, signaling Russia's intent to maintain pressure despite negotiations. Ukrainian forces reported neutralizing over 350,000 Russian drones since early 2026, highlighting a significant shift in the air war dynamics.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Sep 23 2026
Russia is laying down 28,000 new "Geraniums" a year — underground restructuring of the defense industry in 2026

Russia is laying down 28,000 new "Geraniums" a year — underground restructuring of the defense industry in 2026

Weapons & EquipmentLogisticsOperational

Russia is expanding its drone production capabilities by planning to manufacture 28,000 new 'Geran' drones annually by 2026 at Alabuga in Tatarstan. The construction of underground facilities aims to protect these production sites from Ukrainian strikes. Additionally, China is supplying materials necessary for this production, indicating a reliance on external sources for key components. This strategy reflects Russia's intent to maintain a sustained military campaign despite ongoing Ukrainian attacks.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Sep 22 2026
Russian "Geraniums" Transition to Underground Production — 28,000 Drones Change the War in 2026

Russian "Geraniums" Transition to Underground Production — 28,000 Drones Change the War in 2026

Weapons & EquipmentLogisticsOperational

Russia is transitioning to underground production of Geran drones at the Alabuga facility, aiming to increase output by 28,000 units by 2029. This expansion is a response to Ukraine's capability to strike Russian targets and involves significant enhancements in drone technology and production methods. The initiative reflects a strategic shift in Russia's military capabilities, focusing on sustaining drone warfare over time.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Sep 22 2026
Over 1000 Ukrainian Drones Reached Moscow During the Elections — Vulnerability of Russian Air Defense in 2026

Over 1000 Ukrainian Drones Reached Moscow During the Elections — Vulnerability of Russian Air Defense in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Over 1000 Ukrainian drones attacked Russian targets in Moscow and Moscow Oblast during the State Duma elections on September 19-20, 2026. The attack highlighted vulnerabilities in Russian air defense systems, which struggled to manage the simultaneous threat posed by numerous drones. This operation aimed to exert psychological pressure on the Russian government during a significant political event, demonstrating a shift in the dynamics of drone warfare and air defense effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Sep 21 2026
Over 1000 Drones Over Russia — How the Attack on Election Day Changes Russian Military Doctrine

Over 1000 Drones Over Russia — How the Attack on Election Day Changes Russian Military Doctrine

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Ukrainian forces launched over 1000 drones at targets in Russia, resulting in interceptions and three reported casualties in the Moscow region. This operation coincided with parliamentary elections, highlighting vulnerabilities in Russian air defense. The scale of the attack signifies a strategic shift in Ukraine's military approach, aiming to pressure Russian defenses and disrupt political stability.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Sep 21 2026

The Frontier 2026 Turns the CSTO into Russia's Southern Shield Against the Afghan Threat

Military OperationsForce MovementWeapons & EquipmentHybrid

CSTO members Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan conducted military exercises on September 19, 2026, in Koktal, Kazakhstan, to enhance their defensive capabilities against potential threats from Afghanistan. The exercises involved 1500 troops and 115 drones, focusing on countering illegal armed formations. Tajikistan's strategic position, sharing a 1357 km border with Afghanistan, underscores the importance of these maneuvers in regional security.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Sep 20 2026
Russian Air Defense reported 249 drones shot down over Moscow ahead of the 2026 elections

Russian Air Defense reported 249 drones shot down over Moscow ahead of the 2026 elections

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

Russian air defense claimed the destruction of 249 drones over Moscow on September 20, 2026, amid heightened tensions and expanded strikes on Ukraine. This incident coincided with the first parliamentary elections since the onset of the full-scale war, prompting Poland to raise its aviation alert level. The reported number highlights the challenges faced by Russian air defense in managing multiple threats.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Sep 20 2026
Geraniums and Mobilization in Russia After the 2026 Elections — War Approaches NATO's Borders

Geraniums and Mobilization in Russia After the 2026 Elections — War Approaches NATO's Borders

Political-MilitaryForce MovementWeapons & EquipmentStrategic

Russia is denying plans for mobilization while facing high casualty rates that exceed recruitment, particularly after the parliamentary elections in September 2026. The Kremlin aims to maintain a sense of control as the front lines demand more personnel. Poland has increased its air patrols in response to potential drone threats from Russia, indicating heightened military readiness in the region.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Sep 19 2026
Ukrainian Drones Attack Russia in the 2026 Elections — 350 Devices Change the Logic of War

Ukrainian Drones Attack Russia in the 2026 Elections — 350 Devices Change the Logic of War

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentPolitical-MilitaryHybrid

Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow on September 18, 2026, coinciding with the start of parliamentary elections, with over 350 drones involved. The attack included strikes on a refinery in Yaroslavl and a military airfield in Rostov. Ukrainian forces aim to increase the political cost of the ongoing war for Russia, while the Russian military adapts its defenses and missile capabilities in response to these drone threats.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Sep 18 2026
629 Drones and the Shutdown of the Oil Refinery — Russian Air Defense Enters the War of Attrition in 2026

629 Drones and the Shutdown of the Oil Refinery — Russian Air Defense Enters the War of Attrition in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentLogisticsHybrid

On September 18, 2026, Russian air defense intercepted 629 Ukrainian drones over Southern Russia. Concurrently, Ukrainian strikes led to the disruption of operations at the Syzran and Saratov oil refineries. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of Ukrainian radar and electronic warfare systems, highlighting the ongoing military engagement and the shift towards a war of attrition targeting economic infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovFri Sep 18 2026
Strike on the airbase in the Rostov region deprived Russia of six aircraft — what does this change for long-range aviation

Strike on the airbase in the Rostov region deprived Russia of six aircraft — what does this change for long-range aviation

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Russian airbase in Rostov Oblast on September 17, 2026, damaging six aircraft. This attack is considered one of the most significant against Russian aviation infrastructure in the past year. While Russian officials confirmed the activation of air defense systems, they did not disclose the extent of the damage, indicating a successful strike by Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Sep 17 2026

Russian "Shaheds" Use Belarusian LTE Networks — A New Depth of Military Integration in 2026

Command & ControlMilitary OperationsWeapons & EquipmentHybrid

Russian drones are utilizing Belarusian LTE networks for command and control during attacks on Ukraine, as reported by Ukrainian officials on September 14, 2026. This development allows for more complex operations and enhances the effectiveness of the Shahed drones. The attacks have targeted the Rivne, Volyn, and Lviv regions, indicating a strategic use of Belarusian infrastructure to support Russian military actions.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovWed Sep 16 2026
Russian jet "Shaheds" accelerate the drone war over Ukraine in 2026

Russian jet "Shaheds" accelerate the drone war over Ukraine in 2026

Weapons & EquipmentMilitary OperationsOperational

Russia increased its drone operations by launching 102 Shahed drones overnight on September 14, 2026, while Ukraine is developing faster interceptors to counter this threat. The introduction of jet variants of the Shahed drones alters the dynamics of the air war, as they can evade detection and engage Ukrainian defenses more effectively. Ukraine continues to target Russian military infrastructure, including radar systems.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovTue Sep 15 2026
Russian jet drones are changing the nature of strikes on Ukraine in 2026

Russian jet drones are changing the nature of strikes on Ukraine in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentLogisticsHybrid

Russia launched drone strikes targeting fuel stations in Kyiv on September 13, 2026, resulting in at least two fatalities and twelve injuries. This marks a shift in the use of drones from military to economic pressure tactics. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of 399 Ukrainian drones overnight, indicating a sustained aerial campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovMon Sep 14 2026

Ukrainian Sargan-3000 Destroyed a Russian Drone — The Black Sea Enters an Era of Uncrewed Naval Combat 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

The Ukrainian Sargan-3000 destroyed a Russian drone in the Black Sea on September 12, 2026. This incident is noted as a potential first in naval drone combat, with Ukrainian military intelligence detecting the target before the Sargan-3000 executed the attack using a remote-controlled weapon system. The engagement highlights the evolving nature of naval warfare, emphasizing unmanned operations.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSun Sep 13 2026
Russian Drones "Geran" Change Aerial Warfare Over Ukraine in 2026

Russian Drones "Geran" Change Aerial Warfare Over Ukraine in 2026

Military OperationsWeapons & EquipmentOperational

Russian Armed Forces deployed 4,943 long-range drones in airstrikes against Ukraine in August 2026, increasing the use of reactive drones like Geran-4 and Geran-5. The share of these drones in strike packages rose to 56%, with Ukrainian air defense managing to intercept about 60%. This shift in tactics aims to stretch Ukrainian air defense resources and maintain pressure on the front lines.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovSat Sep 12 2026

UAV "Geranium" and Iranian Engineers Form a Russian-Iranian Military Technology Framework in 2026

Political-MilitaryWeapons & EquipmentStrategic

Iranian engineers are collaborating with Russian military technology sectors, focusing on UAVs and navigation systems as of 2026. Nearly 10,000 Iranian specialists are being trained in Russia, enhancing Iran's military capabilities. This partnership allows Iran to access advanced technologies while providing Russia with expertise in circumventing sanctions. The collaboration emphasizes dual-use technologies and the evolution of military systems.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Sep 10 2026

Rostec Launches Air Defense Marketplace in 2026 — Russian Rear Seeks Protection from Drones

Weapons & EquipmentLogisticsOperational

Rostec is launching a defense marketplace in September 2026 to enhance drone protection for Russian infrastructure. This initiative aims to connect manufacturers with defense needs, particularly in response to vulnerabilities exposed by Ukrainian strikes. The marketplace will feature anti-drone systems and related equipment, with a significant portion of applications coming from Russian corporations. The move reflects budgetary pressures and a shift towards more cost-effective defense solutions.

Dmitri VolkovDmitri VolkovThu Sep 10 2026