Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian forces achieved significant territorial gains in February 2026, liberating around 200 square kilometers and disrupting Russian military preparations. Russia's casualty rate exceeded its recruitment rate for the first time, with approximately 35,000 casualties reported in December 2025. The ongoing conflict has strained Russia's military and economy, as evidenced by the Kremlin's increased defense spending and deteriorating recruitment quality.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 26 2026Loading...

Russian forces conducted massed infantry assaults across eastern Ukraine from February 21-23, 2026, focusing on multiple tactical areas including Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces executed counteroffensive operations, maintaining control of 97% of Kupyansk and utilizing advanced drone technology to strike deep into Russian territory. The operational tempo reflects ongoing attrition warfare, with significant casualties on both sides and challenges in Russian force generation.

Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 24 2026Loading...

Russia is laying the groundwork for a potential limited reserve mobilization amid ongoing manpower challenges. Ukrainian forces are advancing in southern Ukraine, particularly near Kupyansk and Oleksandrivka, while Russian forces maintain pressure in the Donbas region. Russia has intensified strikes against Ukrainian military targets and is enhancing its electronic warfare capabilities. The situation remains fluid as both sides prepare for renewed operations as winter transitions to spring.

Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 24 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces recaptured approximately 400 square kilometers of territory in a counteroffensive, while Russian forces conducted large-scale attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Russian casualties exceeded 186,000, with significant losses reported in the Novopavlivka sector. The conflict remains characterized by operational stalemate, with both sides sustaining heavy casualties and ongoing military operations across multiple fronts.

Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 23 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces have transitioned to a counteroffensive in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, liberating 168.9 square kilometers since January 1, 2026. They executed a precision strike on the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Russia, demonstrating enhanced deep-strike capabilities. Meanwhile, Russian territorial gains have significantly slowed, reflecting attrition and improved Ukrainian defenses. The evolving military landscape indicates a shift in operational dynamics as Ukraine adapts its strategies.

Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 23 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces recaptured 86 square kilometers and 18 settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from February 20-22, 2026, disrupting Russian offensive operations. Russian claims of territorial gains were found to be inflated, with independent assessments verifying only 572 square kilometers seized. The denial of Starlink access has significantly impacted Russian command and control capabilities, leading to operational challenges. Russian forces continue to conduct strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, despite facing increasing manpower pressures and recruitment issues.

Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 22 2026Loading...

On February 17, 2026, Russian air defense systems destroyed over 150 Ukrainian drones in a single night, with a total of approximately 300 UAVs intercepted within 24 hours. The attacks focused on strategic sites in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, Crimea, and Krasnodar Krai. Concurrently, Russia presented new air defense technologies at the World Defense Show 2026, indicating a shift towards enhanced counter-drone capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 20 2026Loading...

Russian forces seized 200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and 12 settlements in Donetsk Oblast in February 2026, but at a high cost, with the 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly operating at 40% strength. Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Zaporizhia Oblast, reclaiming over 200 square kilometers. The operational reality indicates that while Russia can gain territory, it struggles to maintain combat power and achieve strategic objectives.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 19 2026Loading...

In January 2026, Russian losses on the battlefield exceeded recruitment by 9000 personnel, marking a significant failure of the voluntary recruitment system. This situation has prompted the Russian government to prepare legislative measures for potential forced conscription, as the current model of 'war without mobilization' has reached its limits. The inability to replace personnel threatens the ongoing military operations in Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 19 2026Loading...

The B-52H Stratofortress, Tu-95MS Bear, and B-2 Spirit are actively utilized in military operations as of 2026, with the B-52H serving as a versatile platform for standoff strikes. The Tu-95MS has been employed in Russia's strategic air campaign against Ukraine, launching Kh-101 missiles from a distance. The B-2 Spirit remains the only aircraft capable of penetrating advanced air defenses, underscoring its critical role in nuclear deterrence.

Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...

Russia is advancing with a depleted 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Zybyne, Kharkiv Oblast, as of February 2026. The Kremlin announced that Vladimir Medinsky will lead negotiations in Geneva starting February 17, aiming for terms that suggest the capitulation of Ukraine. Despite capturing territory, the Russian army operates at only 40% personnel strength, indicating systemic exhaustion. Concurrently, Ukraine has reported extensive damage to its energy infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 17 2026Loading...

Russia is modernizing Factory No. 9 in Yekaterinburg by acquiring 22 industrial machines from Europe and Taiwan to enhance its artillery production capabilities. This effort aims to increase the output of artillery barrels and components for the Coalition system, addressing a critical shortfall in military production. The reliance on foreign technology underscores vulnerabilities in Russia's defense industry amid ongoing sanctions.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 14 2026Loading...

On February 12, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive combined strike involving 219 drones and 24 ballistic missiles against energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odessa, and Dnipro. This operation aimed to exhaust Ukrainian air defense capabilities while targeting civilian heating during extreme cold. The cost-effectiveness of the Russian strategy highlights a significant disparity in military expenditure between the two sides.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...

By 2026, the Russian Army will transition to coercive recruitment methods due to budget constraints, requiring 25,000 to 40,000 new contract soldiers monthly. Regions such as Buryatia and Tatarstan will likely face increased recruitment pressures, while Moscow and Saint Petersburg remain relatively insulated. The reliance on financial incentives has diminished, leading to a potential second wave of mobilization as military losses continue to rise.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...

Construction of infrastructure for the 'Oreshnik' missile system was observed at the Krichiv-6 airfield in Belarus on February 9, 2026. The Russian Armed Forces are preparing for the deployment of 4-6 units, despite currently having only 3-4 systems available. This development indicates a strategic move to enhance military presence in Belarus and signal political integration with the country.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 12 2026Loading...

Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeev survived an assassination attempt outside his home in Moscow on February 6. The Russian Investigative Committee classified the incident as an attempted murder, while Foreign Minister Lavrov described it as a terrorist act by Ukraine. Two suspects were detained in Dubai, raising questions about the security of Russian intelligence services and potential internal conflicts within the GRU and FSB.

Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...

The Russian Armed Forces plan to establish a new branch, the Unmanned Systems Troops (ВБС), comprising 87,000 personnel by February 2026. This formation will include one brigade, four regiments, and numerous battalions and companies, focusing on drone operations. However, concerns arise regarding the bureaucratic structure and the ability to recruit qualified personnel amidst existing shortages in the defense industry.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 07 2026Loading...

In 2025, Belarus adopted 16 new military products, indicating a shift towards deeper integration with the Russian defense industry. The Belarusian defense sector is increasingly reliant on foreign components, particularly from North Korea and China, raising concerns about its technological independence. The export of military products to 65 countries suggests Belarus is acting as an intermediary for Russian arms, further complicating its position amid sanctions.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 07 2026Loading...

The Russian defense industry is experiencing significant mobilization dynamics amid ongoing sanctions, with military spending projected to reach 13.5 trillion rubles by 2025. Despite employing 3.8 million workers, the sector faces structural challenges, including a decline in dual-use imports and financial difficulties. Plans for 2026 include the introduction of advanced systems like the Su-75 fighter and Sarmat ICBM, but the industry's long-term sustainability is in question due to component shortages and corruption issues.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 06 2026Loading...