Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area while Russian forces made incremental gains in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka corridor as of March 1, 2026. Total Russian casualties since the invasion reached approximately 1,266,770, with 870 reported in the last 24 hours. Russia's artillery production has surged to about 7 million shells annually, reflecting its war economy's growth. EU military aid to Ukraine increased by 67 percent in 2025.

Dmitri VolkovMon Mar 02 2026Loading...

Russia continues its offensive operations in Ukraine as of March 2026, adapting to a war of attrition while facing significant recruitment shortfalls and high casualties. The Russian Armed Forces maintain a recruitment rate of 30,000 to 35,000 personnel monthly, but casualties have reached nearly 40,000 per month. The military employs various equipment, including attack drones and all-terrain vehicles, to sustain operations across multiple fronts in eastern Ukraine. The ongoing conflict is characterized by incremental territorial gains and hybrid threats to European security.

Dmitri VolkovMon Mar 02 2026Loading...

Russia continues its military operations in Ukraine, facing staggering casualties of nearly 1.2 million since 2022, with 415,000 in 2025 alone. Despite significant defense spending, territorial gains remain minimal, with only 0.6% of Ukraine captured in 2024 and 0.8% in 2025. The conflict's attritional nature is evident as Russian forces struggle with high losses and slow advances, particularly in Donetsk Oblast.

Dmitri VolkovSun Mar 01 2026Loading...

Russian Armed Forces are sustaining high-intensity military operations in Ukraine as of March 2026, capturing territory and preparing for further offensives. The military is undergoing a significant reconstitution program, requiring 25,000 to 30,000 new personnel monthly. Russian defense industries are producing equipment at unprecedented rates, supported by foreign allies. The ongoing air campaign has severely impacted Ukraine's critical infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovSun Mar 01 2026Loading...

Russia continues high-intensity combat operations in Ukraine as of 2026, with monthly recruitment of 30,000 to 35,000 personnel potentially insufficient to replace approximately 40,000 casualties. The Kremlin's defense spending reached $186 billion in 2025, supporting ongoing military efforts despite economic pressures. Adaptations in command and control, including the deployment of Glaz/Groza systems, enhance operational capabilities, while targeting of critical infrastructure persists.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 28 2026Loading...

Russian forces are preparing for a major spring offensive against Ukraine's Fortress Belt, conducting artillery and drone operations in February 2026. However, they face significant personnel losses, with battlefield casualties exceeding recruitment targets for the first time since the invasion began. Ukrainian forces have demonstrated resilience, launching successful counterattacks and maintaining control over key positions despite Russian pressure. The situation is further complicated by logistical challenges and reliance on foreign fighters.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 28 2026Loading...

On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces conducted joint airstrikes against Iranian military infrastructure in Tehran, targeting regime facilities and officials. This operation threatens Iran's ability to supply drones to Russia, impacting the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Russia condemned the strikes but is unlikely to intervene militarily, while China expressed support for Iran without direct military involvement.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 28 2026Loading...

SpaceX enforced stricter verification for Starlink terminals, disrupting Russian artillery operations in February 2026. This loss of connectivity led to confusion among Russian units and allowed Ukrainian forces to exploit communication gaps in Zaporizhzhia. Concurrently, Russian forces launched a significant strike operation involving 420 drones and 39 missiles targeting Ukrainian infrastructure. The situation reflects ongoing adaptations by both sides in the conflict.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 27 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces executed successful counteroffensives, liberating approximately 183 square kilometers in the Kupyansk area and gaining 165 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts between mid-December 2025 and late February 2026. Russia's military faces increasing vulnerabilities, with casualty rates surpassing recruitment for the first time since 2022, while the Kremlin continues to allocate significant resources to sustain its war effort. Ukraine has also strengthened defense industrial cooperation with European partners.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 27 2026Loading...

Russia continues to sustain high-intensity military operations in Ukraine as of February 2026, despite facing manpower constraints. The Russian Army recruits 30,000 to 35,000 personnel monthly, but this is insufficient to replace significant battlefield casualties, which totaled over 35,000 in late 2025. Moscow is developing new military tactics and equipment, including advanced drones, while protracting negotiations to improve its strategic position.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 26 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces achieved significant territorial gains in February 2026, liberating around 200 square kilometers and disrupting Russian military preparations. Russia's casualty rate exceeded its recruitment rate for the first time, with approximately 35,000 casualties reported in December 2025. The ongoing conflict has strained Russia's military and economy, as evidenced by the Kremlin's increased defense spending and deteriorating recruitment quality.

Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 26 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces launched successful counteroffensives in Kupyansk, Zaporizhia, and Dnipropetrovsk, liberating significant territory and disrupting Russian military operations from December 2025 to February 2026. Russian casualties exceeded recruitment rates, prompting preparations for involuntary reserve callups. The Kremlin's communication issues and military setbacks indicate a critical turning point in the conflict, with implications for domestic stability and military effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 25 2026Loading...

Russia and Iran conducted naval exercises in the Gulf of Oman from February 19-21, 2026, involving one Russian frigate, two Iranian destroyers, and three Chinese warships. This event coincided with the U.S. assembling a significant military presence in the region, serving as a political signal of solidarity among the three nations. The exercises highlighted the ongoing military cooperation between Russia and Iran, despite existing limitations on their partnership.

Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 25 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces launched successful counterattacks in February 2026, recapturing territory in Kupyansk and Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhia oblasts. Russian forces faced significant command and control failures, leading to a casualty rate exceeding recruitment for the first time. The ongoing conflict has resulted in substantial territorial gains for Ukraine, while Russia struggles with manpower shortages and operational effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 25 2026Loading...

Russian forces conducted massed infantry assaults across eastern Ukraine from February 21-23, 2026, focusing on multiple tactical areas including Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces executed counteroffensive operations, maintaining control of 97% of Kupyansk and utilizing advanced drone technology to strike deep into Russian territory. The operational tempo reflects ongoing attrition warfare, with significant casualties on both sides and challenges in Russian force generation.

Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 24 2026Loading...

Russia is laying the groundwork for a potential limited reserve mobilization amid ongoing manpower challenges. Ukrainian forces are advancing in southern Ukraine, particularly near Kupyansk and Oleksandrivka, while Russian forces maintain pressure in the Donbas region. Russia has intensified strikes against Ukrainian military targets and is enhancing its electronic warfare capabilities. The situation remains fluid as both sides prepare for renewed operations as winter transitions to spring.

Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 24 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces recaptured approximately 400 square kilometers of territory in a counteroffensive, while Russian forces conducted large-scale attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. Russian casualties exceeded 186,000, with significant losses reported in the Novopavlivka sector. The conflict remains characterized by operational stalemate, with both sides sustaining heavy casualties and ongoing military operations across multiple fronts.

Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 23 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces have transitioned to a counteroffensive in southern Zaporizhzhia Oblast, liberating 168.9 square kilometers since January 1, 2026. They executed a precision strike on the Votkinsk Machine Building Plant in Russia, demonstrating enhanced deep-strike capabilities. Meanwhile, Russian territorial gains have significantly slowed, reflecting attrition and improved Ukrainian defenses. The evolving military landscape indicates a shift in operational dynamics as Ukraine adapts its strategies.

Dmitri VolkovMon Feb 23 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces recaptured 86 square kilometers and 18 settlements in Zaporizhia and Dnipropetrovsk Oblasts from February 20-22, 2026, disrupting Russian offensive operations. Russian claims of territorial gains were found to be inflated, with independent assessments verifying only 572 square kilometers seized. The denial of Starlink access has significantly impacted Russian command and control capabilities, leading to operational challenges. Russian forces continue to conduct strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure, despite facing increasing manpower pressures and recruitment issues.

Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 22 2026Loading...

Russian forces achieved incremental territorial gains in eastern Ukraine, seizing 160 square kilometers and 11 settlements in January and February 2026. Despite these advances, the Russian military faces a significant manpower crisis, with recruitment methods becoming increasingly coercive. Ukrainian forces continue to adapt, successfully targeting Russian infrastructure with drone strikes, indicating a fluid and contested front line.

Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 22 2026Loading...