Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
The Arithmetic of Attrition: Russia's Pyrrhic Advances and the Erosion of Putin's Theory of Victory
In February 2026, Russian forces claimed significant territorial gains in Ukraine, but independent assessments revealed only marginal advances at a high human cost, with 35,000 Russian deaths reported in December 2025 and January 2026. The operational tempo is challenged by economic strains and tactical setbacks, as Ukrainian forces have successfully retaken territory. Russian military operations are increasingly characterized by information warfare aimed at shaping perceptions of the conflict.
Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 21 2026Loading...The Evolution of the Russian Counter-Drone Doctrine: From Defensive Measures to Technological Export
On February 17, 2026, Russian air defense systems destroyed over 150 Ukrainian drones in a single night, with a total of approximately 300 UAVs intercepted within 24 hours. The attacks focused on strategic sites in the Black Sea, Azov Sea, Crimea, and Krasnodar Krai. Concurrently, Russia presented new air defense technologies at the World Defense Show 2026, indicating a shift towards enhanced counter-drone capabilities.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 20 2026Loading...The Evolution of the Russian Drone Doctrine: From Mass Production to the Concept of "Carrier Drones"
The Russian military has significantly increased production of the 'Upyr-18' drone and is utilizing 'Geran-2' drones as carriers for FPV drones to enhance tactical capabilities. This shift reflects a broader strategy to compensate for technological gaps through mass production and innovative applications of existing systems. As of February 2026, Russian forces have reportedly suffered approximately 1,257,880 personnel losses since the start of the conflict.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 20 2026Loading...Russia's February Gains: 200 Square Kilometers and the Illusion of Momentum
Russian forces seized 200 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and 12 settlements in Donetsk Oblast in February 2026, but at a high cost, with the 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment reportedly operating at 40% strength. Ukrainian forces counterattacked in Zaporizhia Oblast, reclaiming over 200 square kilometers. The operational reality indicates that while Russia can gain territory, it struggles to maintain combat power and achieve strategic objectives.
Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 19 2026Loading...Minus 9000 for January — the limit of the Russian voluntary recruitment system
In January 2026, Russian losses on the battlefield exceeded recruitment by 9000 personnel, marking a significant failure of the voluntary recruitment system. This situation has prompted the Russian government to prepare legislative measures for potential forced conscription, as the current model of 'war without mobilization' has reached its limits. The inability to replace personnel threatens the ongoing military operations in Ukraine.
Dmitri VolkovThu Feb 19 2026Loading...Two Hours Instead of a World — Why the Geneva Talks Are Doomed to Stall
The Geneva negotiations on February 18, 2026, concluded after just two hours without any significant agreements. Ukraine reported 740 casualties among Russian forces, highlighting the ongoing conflict. Russia's demands for territorial recognition remain unchanged, complicating the peace process. The situation around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant continues to be a critical point of contention.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...
Victorious Report Against the Backdrop of Retreat — Kryvoruchko, Starlink, and the Information War in the Heat of Geneva
Ukrainian forces reclaimed 201 square kilometers from Russian control between February 12-16, 2026, during a period of reported communication disruptions for Russian troops due to Starlink outages. Deputy Defense Minister Alexey Krivoruchko claimed these outages did not affect operations, while Ukrainian officials noted significant impacts. The situation unfolded against the backdrop of tense negotiations in Geneva between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...
B-52 Stratofortress vs Tu-95 Bear vs B-2 Spirit: Cold War Giants and Stealth Revolution
The B-52H Stratofortress, Tu-95MS Bear, and B-2 Spirit are actively utilized in military operations as of 2026, with the B-52H serving as a versatile platform for standoff strikes. The Tu-95MS has been employed in Russia's strategic air campaign against Ukraine, launching Kh-101 missiles from a distance. The B-2 Spirit remains the only aircraft capable of penetrating advanced air defenses, underscoring its critical role in nuclear deterrence.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...
M1 Abrams vs Leopard 2 vs T-90 vs Type 99: Modern Main Battle Tank Comparison
The ongoing war in Ukraine has highlighted the performance of various main battle tanks, including the M1 Abrams, Leopard 2, T-90, and Type 99. The M1 Abrams is recognized for its advanced armor and active protection systems, while the Leopard 2A7V has faced significant losses due to vulnerabilities. The T-90M has demonstrated improved survivability, and the Type 99A's capabilities remain largely untested in combat. This analysis underscores the importance of active protection systems in modern armored warfare.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...
396 Drones on the Night Before Geneva — Russian Military Doctrine of Pressure in Negotiations
Russia launched a massive attack on Ukraine with 396 drones and 29 missiles on February 16-17, 2026, as negotiations in Geneva continued. Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted 367 drones and 25 missiles. The military actions are part of a strategy to exert pressure during diplomatic talks, highlighting the ongoing conflict and the complexities of the negotiations.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 18 2026Loading...
201 square kilometers in five days — the loss of Starlink exposed the flaws in the Russian military command system
Ukrainian forces reclaimed 201 square kilometers in Zaporizhzhia Oblast from February 12-16, 2026, following the disruption of Russian communications due to the loss of Starlink terminals. This operational failure led to significant challenges in command and control for Russian troops, halting their assault actions in several sectors. The transition to less effective geostationary satellites further complicates Russian military operations.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 17 2026Loading...Russia Goes to Geneva with an Exhausted Army — What Lies Behind the Kremlin's Negotiating Position
Russia is advancing with a depleted 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment in Zybyne, Kharkiv Oblast, as of February 2026. The Kremlin announced that Vladimir Medinsky will lead negotiations in Geneva starting February 17, aiming for terms that suggest the capitulation of Ukraine. Despite capturing territory, the Russian army operates at only 40% personnel strength, indicating systemic exhaustion. Concurrently, Ukraine has reported extensive damage to its energy infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 17 2026Loading...Russian losses in the war exceeded 1.25 million — the rate of decline is accelerating contrary to forecasts
Russian Armed Forces have suffered over 1.25 million personnel losses in the conflict as of February 15, 2026, with daily losses reaching 1,250. The rate of casualties is increasing, surpassing previous peaks, and the military is struggling to replenish its ranks effectively. Equipment losses are also significant, including over 11,672 tanks and 24,037 armored vehicles, indicating a severe degradation of military capability.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 15 2026Loading...219 Drones and 24 Missiles in One Night — Russia's Massive Attacks on Ukraine's Energy as a System of Depleting Air Defense
On February 12, 2026, the Russian Armed Forces launched a massive combined strike involving 219 drones and 24 ballistic missiles against energy infrastructure in Kyiv, Odessa, and Dnipro. This operation aimed to exhaust Ukrainian air defense capabilities while targeting civilian heating during extreme cold. The cost-effectiveness of the Russian strategy highlights a significant disparity in military expenditure between the two sides.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...Ukrainian FPV Interceptors Against "Lightning" Drones — The Formation of a New Layer of Air Opposition
Ukrainian FPV interceptors destroyed over 300 Russian 'Molniya' drones in February 2026, indicating a significant shift in aerial warfare dynamics. The 'Molniya' drones, which operate on pre-programmed routes, are being actively countered by specialized units like the Ukrainian Security Service's 'Alpha'. Russia's Ministry of Defense is attempting to centralize drone operations to enhance effectiveness, but this may create vulnerabilities.
Dmitri VolkovWed Feb 11 2026Loading...UMPB-5: A New Word in Airstrike Tactics or the Evolution of Inevitability
Russian Aerospace Forces conducted continuous airstrikes over Ukraine in January 2026, dropping 5,717 guided bombs, including the newly developed UMPB-5. This weapon allows strikes from distances of 50-60 km, keeping aircraft safe from Ukrainian air defense systems. A recent strike on Kharkiv resulted in 33 civilian injuries, highlighting the impact of this new tactical approach.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 10 2026Loading...Strikes on NPP Infrastructure: Escalation of Winter Campaign and Limits of Effectiveness
Russian forces conducted airstrikes on nuclear power plant infrastructure in Ukraine on February 6-7, 2026, deploying 408 drones and 39 missiles. Ukrainian air defense successfully intercepted 406 of these, but 34 managed to strike 19 locations, severely impacting energy generation. This operation represents a strategic shift in targeting high-voltage substations, aiming to disrupt the energy supply and increase pressure on Ukraine amid ongoing negotiations.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 10 2026Loading...Strikes on Ukraine's Energy Infrastructure: Returning to the 2022 Strategy and Limits of Effectiveness
On February 7, 2026, Russian Armed Forces launched a large-scale strike on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, deploying 450 drones and over 70 missiles targeting thermal power plants and key substations. This operation signifies a return to a strategy of attrition, aiming to disrupt Ukraine's energy supply. However, Ukraine's energy system has adapted, mitigating the long-term effects of these attacks.
Dmitri VolkovSun Feb 08 2026Loading...The Evolution of Russian Infantry Tactics in the Context of Total Dominance of UAVs: Analysis of Adaptation and Prospects
Russian forces are evolving their tactics in the Ukrainian theater as of January 2026, implementing 'mole tactics' for underground logistics and employing small assault groups instead of larger battalion formations. Tactical aviation is increasingly used to strike key enemy positions, compensating for the limitations imposed by UAV surveillance. Guided aerial bombs have become essential for effective assaults on fortified positions.
Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 06 2026Loading...
