Analysis & Reports

NATO fighters shot down a Russian drone over Lithuania on September 15, 2026, amid a growing threat from Russian drone operations to NATO's eastern flank. The incident prompted Poland to scramble its aircraft in a preventive operation against a new Russian air attack on Ukraine. The use of Shahed drones by Russia complicates air defense strategies for NATO, highlighting the need for improved coordination and response protocols among member states.

Dmitri VolkovTue Sep 15 2026Loading...

On September 14, 2026, a Russian drone struck a passenger train locomotive near Yahodyn, Ukraine, close to the Polish border. The attack occurred shortly after a diplomatic train crossed into Poland, prompting evacuation of passengers due to ongoing threats. This incident highlights the ongoing Russian campaign against Ukrainian transport infrastructure and raises concerns about potential escalation into Polish territory.

Dmitri VolkovMon Sep 14 2026Loading...

Russia launched drone strikes targeting fuel stations in Kyiv on September 13, 2026, resulting in at least two fatalities and twelve injuries. This marks a shift in the use of drones from military to economic pressure tactics. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of 399 Ukrainian drones overnight, indicating a sustained aerial campaign against Ukrainian infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovMon Sep 14 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones struck two Russian oil refineries in Slavyansk-na-Kubani and Nizhnekamsk on September 13, 2026, testing the capabilities of Russian air defenses. The attacks, occurring 1,200 kilometers from Ukraine, signify a strategic escalation in the conflict, targeting critical logistical infrastructure. Russian officials confirmed air defense activity but did not reveal the damage extent, highlighting vulnerabilities in the defense of industrial sites.

Dmitri VolkovSun Sep 13 2026Loading...

The Ukrainian Sargan-3000 destroyed a Russian drone in the Black Sea on September 12, 2026. This incident is noted as a potential first in naval drone combat, with Ukrainian military intelligence detecting the target before the Sargan-3000 executed the attack using a remote-controlled weapon system. The engagement highlights the evolving nature of naval warfare, emphasizing unmanned operations.

Dmitri VolkovSun Sep 13 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces attacked the Saratov oil refinery and Uralchem Azot chemical plant on September 10-11, 2026, marking a significant escalation in targeting Russian industrial capabilities. This was the sixth strike on the Saratov facility this year, indicating a systematic effort to disrupt Russian logistics and supply chains. The Russian government confirmed damage to these sites but did not disclose the extent of the impact.

Dmitri VolkovSat Sep 12 2026Loading...

Russian Armed Forces deployed 4,943 long-range drones in airstrikes against Ukraine in August 2026, increasing the use of reactive drones like Geran-4 and Geran-5. The share of these drones in strike packages rose to 56%, with Ukrainian air defense managing to intercept about 60%. This shift in tactics aims to stretch Ukrainian air defense resources and maintain pressure on the front lines.

Dmitri VolkovSat Sep 12 2026Loading...

Russian GUGI conducted operations near Svalbard on September 10, 2026, preparing for potential attacks on underwater cables using secret weapon systems. NATO forces detected and pursued Russian ships during these operations, signaling the challenges of covert military actions. The Norwegian Defense Minister emphasized the implications for Arctic security and the need for enhanced monitoring of underwater infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 11 2026Loading...

Russian forces resumed airstrikes on Kyiv on September 8, 2026, utilizing over 160 drones and dozens of missiles, resulting in five fatalities and 35 injuries. This attack followed a brief pause in strikes and coincided with the departure of U.S. diplomats, indicating a strategic military message. The strikes targeted both military and civilian infrastructure, reflecting a dual operational goal of exerting pressure on Ukraine and signaling to the U.S.

Dmitri VolkovWed Sep 09 2026Loading...

Russian forces attacked two cargo ships in the Black Sea, aiming to disrupt Ukraine's maritime logistics. This action is part of a broader strategy to economically isolate Ukraine by making access to its ports increasingly risky. In response, Ukraine has targeted Russian port and energy infrastructure, indicating a shift in the conflict towards mutual attacks on logistics. The situation is evolving as both sides adapt their strategies to exert pressure on each other.

Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 04 2026Loading...

Ukrainian long-range drones are impacting Russian airspace and logistics in September 2026, creating uncertainty in the rear areas of Russia. President Zelensky has advised airlines to evaluate risks for flights over Russia, while the Russian military is reallocating air defense resources in response to these threats. This shift indicates that the traditional concept of strategic depth for Russia is becoming increasingly costly and uncertain.

Dmitri VolkovWed Sep 02 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on August 30, 2026, targeting Russian military infrastructure in Yeysk, Millerovo, and Kirish. The attacks involved 130 drones and 2 ballistic missiles, aiming to disrupt Russian logistics and military operations. Key assets, including radar systems and ammunition depots, were hit, reflecting a strategic shift in Ukraine's approach to the conflict.

Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 31 2026Loading...

Russia is resuming its winter strategy of targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure with nearly 2000 drones and over 1600 bombs deployed in recent weeks. This approach aims to systematically exhaust Ukraine's resources and create political pressure as winter approaches. Concurrently, Ukraine is increasing its strikes on Russian airfields and drone launch positions, indicating a response to the ongoing military operations.

Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 31 2026Loading...

On August 28, 2023, the Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces successfully launched an RS-24 Yars intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk, reaching the Kura test range in Kamchatka. This event is part of a series of routine missile tests, occurring amidst heightened tensions with Ukraine and financial constraints within the Russian government. The launch underscores Russia's commitment to maintaining its strategic military readiness despite economic challenges.

Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 30 2026Loading...

A Russian drone strike using a Geran-4 targeted an ammunition depot in Myla, Kyiv Oblast, on August 29, 2026, resulting in 37 fatalities and 42 injuries. The attack caused extensive damage to at least 130 residential buildings and led to the evacuation of 381 individuals, including 59 children. This incident highlights the effectiveness of Russian tactics in disrupting Ukrainian logistics and civilian safety.

Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 30 2026Loading...

The Russian Armed Forces launched the 'Volna Kupol Garant' electronic warfare system into series production in August 2026 to counter Ukrainian drone operations. This system aims to disrupt Starlink communications by targeting satellites, primarily protecting stationary military assets. However, its effectiveness against mobile targets is limited, reflecting a shift in Russian military strategy in response to increased Ukrainian strikes on critical infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovSat Aug 29 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones attacked the Yaroslavl Oil Refinery on August 28, 2026, marking the eighth strike this year. In response, the Russian government issued a decree allowing temporary management of critical infrastructure due to insufficient protection against drone threats. This decree has raised concerns about its vague criteria and the implications for Russian businesses.

Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 28 2026Loading...

Russian forces are preparing Slavyansk for a siege in autumn 2026, employing Tornado-S systems and FAB-500 bombs to disrupt logistics and exhaust Ukrainian defenses. This strategy aims to weaken the supply routes and morale of Ukrainian forces rather than achieve immediate territorial gains. The focus is on creating a state of logistical distress in the region, indicating a shift in Russian military tactics towards prolonged engagements.

Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 27 2026Loading...

On August 25, 2026, the Russian Navy targeted five ships in the ports of Odessa and Pivdenny, marking a strategic shift towards an air blockade against Ukraine. This operation aims to disrupt Ukrainian agricultural exports and create a climate of fear among shipping companies. The attacks are part of a broader strategy to weaken Ukraine's economy without occupying new territory.

Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 26 2026Loading...

Russian forces conducted strikes on border crossings with Moldova from late July to August 2023, targeting infrastructure to disrupt Ukrainian logistics. This campaign aims to increase costs for Ukrainian exports and instill a sense of constant border threat for Moldova and Romania. The strikes are part of a broader strategy to weaken Ukraine's economic ties with Europe and demonstrate the risks associated with supporting Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 26 2026Loading...