Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Exit through Upper Lars — 113 thousand in a week as a harbinger of a new mobilization
Over 113,000 Russian citizens crossed into Georgia via Upper Lars in August 2023, signaling potential preparations for mobilization. The Russian government is reportedly gathering personal data on reservists and has been denying any plans for mass mobilization. However, the failure of voluntary recruitment efforts has led to speculation about a future conscription announcement, particularly after the upcoming parliamentary elections.
Dmitri VolkovSat Aug 29 2026Loading...
"Not Planned, But We'll See" — Nebenzya and the Ritual of Denying Mobilization Before the State Duma Elections
Vasily Nebenzya, Russia's permanent representative to the UN, stated on August 20, 2026, that mass mobilization is not currently planned but hinted at potential future actions. This statement comes ahead of the Russian parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18-20, 2026, where mobilization could be announced post-election. Ukrainian President Zelensky indicated that Russia might mobilize several hundred thousand troops by the end of the year, suggesting a strategic approach to manage public perception and political stability during the election period.
Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 21 2026Loading...The Ceasefire Paradox: How Moscow's Victory Day Truce Masked an Escalating Cross-Border Drone War
Russian forces launched 78 airstrikes and 9,317 kamikaze drones against Ukrainian positions on May 7, 2026. Ukrainian drones struck the Mosfilm Tower in Moscow, while two drones crashed in Latvia, damaging an oil facility. Total Russian military losses reached approximately 1,342,030 personnel. Three ceasefire proposals were made within a week, but combat operations continued unabated.
Dmitri VolkovMon May 11 2026Loading...
Russia's Spring 2026 Offensive: Force Buildup and Ukraine's Counteroffensive Disruptions
Russia is mobilizing over 400,000 additional troops for a Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, while Ukraine's counteroffensive has disrupted these plans. Ukrainian forces regained significant territory in February 2026, forcing Russia to shift to defensive operations. Concurrently, Russia's aerial campaign has intensified, utilizing advanced drone technology to target Ukrainian infrastructure. Belarus is also enhancing its military presence near the Ukrainian border.
Dmitri VolkovSat Apr 04 2026Loading...Russia's Spring Offensive Stalls as Ukrainian Counterattacks Reshape the Battlefield
Russian forces' spring-summer offensive against Ukraine stalled in March 2026, with Ukrainian forces successfully counterattacking and liberating Berezove. Ukrainian long-range strikes have disrupted Russian oil exports significantly. Public criticism from Russian military commentators highlights systemic issues within the Russian military. Additionally, Russia plans to train over 70,000 drone operators to address operational challenges.
Dmitri VolkovSat Mar 28 2026Loading...Russia Launches Spring Offensive: Shift to Mechanized Warfare Marks New Phase in Eastern Ukraine
Russian forces launched a comprehensive spring offensive across eastern Ukraine from March 17 to March 23, 2026, marking a shift to mechanized warfare. They conducted 619 offensive operations, focusing on the strategic town of Lyman in Donetsk Oblast. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces engaged in 134 combat encounters, reporting significant Russian losses. The offensive is supported by extensive airstrikes and drone attacks, indicating a high operational tempo.
Dmitri VolkovWed Mar 25 2026Loading...Russia's Spring 2026 Offensive: Strategic Redeployments Signal Shift in Eastern Ukraine Campaign
Russian forces launched a Spring 2026 offensive in eastern Ukraine on March 19, employing battalion-sized mechanized assaults in the Lyman direction. Despite initial attacks being repelled by Ukrainian forces, Russia is redeploying elite units to bolster its operations. Concurrently, Ukrainian counteroffensives have disrupted Russian plans, leading to significant territorial gains. The air campaign has intensified, with numerous drone strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovTue Mar 24 2026Loading...
Ukraine Intensifies Deep Strikes as France Delivers Next-Generation Air Defense
Ukrainian forces intensified their medium and long-range strike campaign against Russian military infrastructure in March 2026, targeting locations such as Krasnodar Krai and Belgorod City. France committed to supplying Ukraine with SAMP/T NG air defense systems for battlefield testing. Ukrainian operations included strikes on oil facilities and air defense systems, while Russian forces launched a significant number of drones and missiles. The situation indicates a strategic effort by Ukraine to degrade Russian capabilities ahead of anticipated offensives.
Dmitri VolkovMon Mar 16 2026Loading...Russia's Spring Offensive Unravels as Ukrainian Gains Expose Strategic Vulnerabilities
Ukrainian forces liberated over 400 square kilometers in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast since late January 2026, disrupting Russian military operations. They advanced 10-12 kilometers in two drives, liberating settlements and revealing vulnerabilities in Russian defenses. Russian forces are facing significant casualties and logistical challenges, with reports of 1.315 million killed and wounded. The situation indicates a strategic setback for Russia as Ukrainian counterattacks continue to gain momentum.
Dmitri VolkovThu Mar 12 2026Loading...
Russia's Attrition Strategy Meets Ukrainian Tactical Innovation: Analyzing the Eastern Front, February 2026
Russian forces conducted massed infantry assaults across eastern Ukraine from February 21-23, 2026, focusing on multiple tactical areas including Kupyansk and Pokrovsk. Ukrainian forces executed counteroffensive operations, maintaining control of 97% of Kupyansk and utilizing advanced drone technology to strike deep into Russian territory. The operational tempo reflects ongoing attrition warfare, with significant casualties on both sides and challenges in Russian force generation.
Dmitri VolkovTue Feb 24 2026Loading...
