Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow on September 18, 2026, coinciding with the start of parliamentary elections, with over 350 drones involved. The attack included strikes on a refinery in Yaroslavl and a military airfield in Rostov. Ukrainian forces aim to increase the political cost of the ongoing war for Russia, while the Russian military adapts its defenses and missile capabilities in response to these drone threats.

Dmitri VolkovFri Sep 18 2026Loading...

Russian drones are utilizing Belarusian LTE networks for command and control during attacks on Ukraine, as reported by Ukrainian officials on September 14, 2026. This development allows for more complex operations and enhances the effectiveness of the Shahed drones. The attacks have targeted the Rivne, Volyn, and Lviv regions, indicating a strategic use of Belarusian infrastructure to support Russian military actions.

Dmitri VolkovWed Sep 16 2026Loading...

Russia increased its drone operations by launching 102 Shahed drones overnight on September 14, 2026, while Ukraine is developing faster interceptors to counter this threat. The introduction of jet variants of the Shahed drones alters the dynamics of the air war, as they can evade detection and engage Ukrainian defenses more effectively. Ukraine continues to target Russian military infrastructure, including radar systems.

Dmitri VolkovTue Sep 15 2026Loading...

Russian Armed Forces deployed 4,943 long-range drones in airstrikes against Ukraine in August 2026, increasing the use of reactive drones like Geran-4 and Geran-5. The share of these drones in strike packages rose to 56%, with Ukrainian air defense managing to intercept about 60%. This shift in tactics aims to stretch Ukrainian air defense resources and maintain pressure on the front lines.

Dmitri VolkovSat Sep 12 2026Loading...

Eighteen out of thirty-six Rassvet satellites failed to reach orbit, hindering Russian military communication capabilities in 2026. This failure impacts the operational effectiveness of Russian drones in Ukraine, as reliable communication is essential for real-time control and targeting. Additionally, Russian forces are reportedly enhancing the capabilities of Geran drones for precision strikes, indicating a shift in their operational strategy despite technological setbacks.

Dmitri VolkovSat Sep 05 2026Loading...

The 3M22 Zircon missile is assessed to have a maximum speed of 6.8 Mach and a warhead weight of 120 kilograms, indicating limitations in its capabilities. It functions as a high-speed penetration tool rather than a revolutionary weapon, with a quasi-ballistic trajectory and a range of about 1000 kilometers. Ukrainian intelligence highlights the reliance on foreign components for its production, suggesting vulnerabilities in Russia's military technology claims.

Dmitri VolkovTue Sep 01 2026Loading...

Russia is resuming its winter strategy of targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure with nearly 2000 drones and over 1600 bombs deployed in recent weeks. This approach aims to systematically exhaust Ukraine's resources and create political pressure as winter approaches. Concurrently, Ukraine is increasing its strikes on Russian airfields and drone launch positions, indicating a response to the ongoing military operations.

Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 31 2026Loading...

The UK government authorized the transfer of classified information on SCALP missile components to Ukraine for local assembly, significantly enhancing Ukraine's military capabilities. This decision alters the dynamics of military support and operational planning against Russia, prompting a nervous reaction from Moscow. The local assembly of these missiles could enable Ukraine to conduct sustained long-range strikes, impacting Russian military logistics and operations.

Dmitri VolkovFri Aug 28 2026Loading...

The UK is set to provide Ukraine with documentation for producing Storm Shadow missiles, prompting Russia to threaten British factories. This development indicates a shift in military strategy, as Russia perceives the potential for Ukraine to establish a distributed production capability. In response, Russia is likely to enhance reconnaissance and increase threats against Ukrainian industrial sites.

Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 25 2026Loading...

On August 20, 2023, Russian forces launched a massive combined strike on Kyiv, involving 44 cruise missiles and 168 drones. Ukrainian air defense intercepted 39 cruise missiles and 145 drones, but the attack resulted in 12 civilian deaths and around 40 injuries. The strikes hit multiple locations, including residential buildings and a children's hospital, indicating a strategy aimed at pressuring the civilian population.

Dmitri VolkovThu Aug 20 2026Loading...

NATO conducted large-scale air exercises near Kaliningrad on August 18, 2026, involving 25 aircraft, including E-3A Sentry and AH-64E Apache. The unannounced exercises aimed to test Russian A2/AD capabilities and involved electronic warfare and reconnaissance operations. This sudden military activity reflects a shift in NATO's approach to readiness and deterrence in the region.

Dmitri VolkovWed Aug 19 2026Loading...

On August 17, 2026, debris from a Russian Geran drone fell in Moldova, causing an explosion near the village of Talmadge. Russia is producing around 3000 Geran-4 and Geran-5 drones monthly, indicating a significant increase in drone warfare capabilities. The production facility in Tatarstan is strategically located far from Ukraine, allowing for sustained drone operations. This incident underscores the growing impact of the drone war beyond Ukraine's borders.

Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 18 2026Loading...

Russian forces launched 198 ballistic and hypersonic missiles at Ukraine in July 2026, utilizing S-400 systems for ground strikes. This marks a significant increase in missile activity, as previous months saw lower numbers. The repurposing of air defense missiles for offensive operations indicates a strategic shift in Russia's military approach amid ongoing conflict.

Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 17 2026Loading...

Russia is restructuring its military production for the winter campaign of 2026/2027, significantly increasing the production of ballistic and hypersonic missiles, as well as drones. In July, the Russian Armed Forces launched 198 missiles, the highest number in a year, while also producing 1400 reactive strike drones. Most new missiles are being deployed directly into combat rather than stored, indicating a shift in military strategy. The production of Iskanders and RM-48U missiles has also surged, with plans to increase the share of reactive drones in the strike fleet.

Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 11 2026Loading...

Russia launched 11 ballistic missiles and over 200 drones at Odessa on the night of August 8-9, 2026, resulting in significant damage to residential areas and energy infrastructure. At least 14 individuals were injured, and the strikes are part of a systematic campaign against Ukraine's grain corridor. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that 72% of the drones were intercepted, but the attacks continue to threaten Ukraine's economic stability.

Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 10 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones destroyed an S-400 air defense system in Gelendzhik on the night of August 9, along with four other Russian air defense systems and three vessels in the Black Sea. This operation marks a significant escalation in Ukraine's campaign against Russian air defenses, targeting critical military assets deep within Russian-held territory. The attacks included the destruction of radar systems essential for the operation of the S-400, indicating a strategic shift in Ukraine's military capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 09 2026Loading...

Russian forces launched a coordinated attack on August 3-4, 2026, utilizing 136 drones and 1 Iskander-M missile, targeting multiple locations in Ukraine including Rostov Oblast and Oryol. Despite 117 drones being intercepted, 14 drones successfully struck targets across 14 areas. This operation reflects a strategic shift in Russian military tactics, emphasizing a diverse array of strike capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovTue Aug 04 2026Loading...

Russia launched 133 drone strikes against Ukrainian ports on August 2, 2026, primarily using new munitions called 'Banderol'. These strikes, which targeted Odessa, indicate a strategic shift towards specialized attacks on Ukraine's war economy infrastructure. The upgraded 'Geran-4 Seeker' drones are now equipped with optical guidance systems, enhancing their effectiveness against Ukrainian defenses.

Dmitri VolkovMon Aug 03 2026Loading...

Russia launched approximately 144 missiles, including ballistic types, over a week, with Ukraine intercepting only one of 27 aimed at Kyiv. This reflects a strategic shift in Russian military operations, emphasizing the use of ballistic missiles to exploit weaknesses in Ukrainian air defenses. Concurrently, Ukraine reported high interception rates of drones but faces challenges against ballistic threats, indicating a critical phase in the ongoing conflict.

Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 02 2026Loading...

Russian forces launched a significant strike on Kyiv from July 31 to August 1, 2026, using 35 missiles, including 27 ballistic missiles, and 185 drones. The attack resulted in civilian casualties and damage to infrastructure, highlighting a shift in Russian military strategy. Concurrently, Ukraine continued its campaign against Russian fuel infrastructure, indicating a broader conflict dynamic.

Dmitri VolkovSun Aug 02 2026Loading...