Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Russia and Belarus Accelerate Military Supplies — New Order Changes the Balance of Eastern Europe in 2026
On November 3, 2026, Russia and Belarus accelerated military supplies through a new decree signed by Putin, streamlining military-technical cooperation. This change allows Belarus to access Russian military components more predictably and enhances the operational capabilities of its armed forces. The integration of military supplies signifies a shift in logistics and cooperation, reflecting the evolving military relationship between the two nations.
Dmitri VolkovWed Nov 04 2026Loading...500 PAC-3 MSEs to be Delivered in 2030: Why Ukraine's Air Defense Budget is Shifting to Oil Refineries
The U.S. approved a potential sale of 500 PAC-3 MSE missiles to Ukraine, valued at $2.1 billion, with delivery expected no earlier than 2030. Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to conduct strikes on Russian oil and rocket fuel facilities, responding to ongoing drone attacks from Russia. On October 31, Ukraine reported intercepting 105 out of 134 Russian drones launched against its territory.
Dmitri VolkovSat Oct 31 2026Loading...Russian Air Defense Loses Depth — S-400 and "Pantsir" Systems Do Not Cover the Rear in 2026
Russian air defense systems are increasingly unable to protect rear areas, as highlighted by the Institute for the Study of War in October 2026. The focus on immediate combat zones has left critical infrastructure vulnerable. This shift in strategy reflects a prioritization of key assets over comprehensive territorial defense, exacerbated by sanctions affecting the quality of military components.
Dmitri VolkovFri Oct 30 2026Loading...
Ukrainian Drones Covered 1500 Kilometers and Struck the Titanium Support of Su-34 and Iskanders
Ukrainian drones struck a titanium production facility in Perm Krai, Russia, on October 25-26, 2026, traveling approximately 1500 kilometers. This attack targets a critical component of Russia's military supply chain, potentially disrupting the production of materials essential for aviation and missile systems. Concurrently, Ukrainian air defenses intercepted 112 Russian drones and 3 missiles during a separate attack.
Dmitri VolkovMon Oct 26 2026Loading...
2500 Kilometers of FP-1 Deep Strike Reflects Three Layers of Cracks in the Russia-Ukraine Energy Ceasefire
On October 24, 2023, Russian forces attacked a Ukrainian power plant while Ukrainian forces reported drone strikes reaching 2,500 km into Russian territory, targeting facilities in Omsk and Togliatti. The attacks resulted in at least 4 deaths and 78 injuries. Ukrainian strikes also disrupted water and electricity supply in Crimea, indicating ongoing military operations and escalating tensions between the two nations.
Dmitri VolkovSat Oct 24 2026Loading...Strikes on Proton and Togliatti Reveal a New Vulnerability in Russian Rocket Production
On October 24, 2023, Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on missile production facilities in Oryol and Tolyatti, as well as a military airfield in Yeysk. Russian sources confirmed the attacks and reported damage in Tolyatti, although the extent remains undisclosed. These strikes target critical components of the Russian missile supply chain, aiming to disrupt production and increase operational costs.
Dmitri VolkovSat Oct 24 2026Loading...
Geraniums and "Shaheds" in 2026 — 2597 Drones Show a New Logic of the Russian Air Campaign
The Russian army launched 2597 drones against Ukraine over a week, with Ukrainian air defense neutralizing over 87% of them. On October 22-23, 176 drones were launched, including 92 reactive Shahids. Ukrainian sources reported a fire at a synthetic rubber plant in Samara following a drone attack, and power outages in occupied Crimea due to damage to energy infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovSat Oct 24 2026Loading...Over 1000 Drones Over St. Petersburg — The Energy Truce Turned into a War of Attrition
Ukrainian forces launched over 1000 drones targeting Russian oil facilities in Saint Petersburg on October 18-19, 2026. The strikes resulted in significant damage, including the destruction of an oil terminal and power outages affecting around 20,000 residents. Russian air defenses reportedly shot down 145 drones, but the attacks marked a notable escalation in the conflict, disrupting critical infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovWed Oct 21 2026Loading...Ukrainian Drones Reached St. Petersburg — A Thousand Devices Tested the Limits of Russian Air Defense in 2026
Ukrainian drones conducted a significant attack on Russian infrastructure in Saint Petersburg on October 18, 2026, targeting oil terminals and logistics centers. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported 1,015 drones as either destroyed or suppressed. The assault resulted in at least one fatality and several injuries, highlighting vulnerabilities in Russian air defense systems.
Dmitri VolkovMon Oct 19 2026Loading...Belarus Expands Production of Components for "Grad" — Minsk Becomes Arsenal of the Russian War 2026
Belarus is expanding its production of components for the BM-21 Grad rocket system in Minsk as of October 2026. This development signifies Belarus's increasing role in supporting Russian military operations, transforming its defense industry into a key element of Russia's military supply chain. The production expansion is aimed at enhancing logistical support for ongoing military actions against Ukraine.
Dmitri VolkovSat Oct 17 2026Loading...
Russian Refineries Again Under Attack from Ukraine in 2026 — One Hundred Days of Ceasefire Revealed the Limits of Air Defense
Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian oil infrastructure on October 15-16, 2026, following a brief pause. Russian air defense systems are reportedly unable to effectively protect these facilities, leading to increased vulnerability. The U.S. is involved in diplomatic efforts to halt these attacks, while Ukraine aims to leverage its strikes to disrupt Russian logistics and military supply chains.
Dmitri VolkovFri Oct 16 2026Loading...
Ukrainian Strike Drones Return to Russian Oil Refineries — The Energy Truce Turned Out to Be a Trap
Ukraine resumed drone strikes on Russian oil refineries on October 16, 2026, following a series of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. The energy truce declared by Washington quickly collapsed, with both sides viewing infrastructure as leverage in the conflict. President Zelensky announced that the energy agreement is no longer in effect, indicating a return to previous military strategies targeting critical energy assets.
Dmitri VolkovFri Oct 16 2026Loading...Russian Refineries Under Attack from Ukraine After 48 Hours of Ceasefire — The Energy War Returns
Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries on October 15, 2026, following a brief 48-hour ceasefire. This action signifies a return to energy warfare, with Ukraine targeting critical infrastructure to disrupt Russian military logistics. Russian officials have accused Ukraine of violating agreements, highlighting the ongoing tensions and strategic implications of these military operations.
Dmitri VolkovThu Oct 15 2026Loading...
The EU imposes record sanctions against the Russian defense industry — 1600 targets change the price of war in 2026
The European Union imposed record sanctions on 1600 entities within the Russian defense industry on October 12, 2026. These sanctions aim to disrupt the entire production ecosystem, affecting suppliers and intermediaries, rather than just targeting individual companies. The sanctions are expected to increase costs and reduce the quality of military equipment, while Russia may turn to countries like China and Iran for support.
Dmitri VolkovTue Oct 13 2026Loading...
Russian "Geran-4" receives Chinese protection from electronic warfare and changes the balance of drone warfare in 2026
Russian Geran-4 drones have been upgraded with 32-element antennas, enhancing their electronic warfare capabilities. This development, linked to Chinese technology, complicates Ukrainian electronic warfare efforts. The ongoing reliance on Chinese components highlights Russia's logistical challenges in drone production. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centers further expose vulnerabilities in their military infrastructure.
Dmitri VolkovSat Oct 10 2026Loading...
Ukraine struck three missile sites in Russia and is changing the logic of long-range strikes in 2026.
Ukraine struck three Russian missile facilities on October 9, 2026, targeting the Redkino experimental plant in Tver Oblast and facilities in Nizhny Novgorod. This operation aimed to disrupt the supply chain for missile production, impacting logistics and increasing the cost of Russian missile operations. Reports indicate one Russian soldier was killed, with minimal damage to infrastructure confirmed by multiple sources.
Dmitri VolkovFri Oct 09 2026Loading...Ukrainian Drones Disabled Up to Half of Russia's Oil Refining and Changed the Balance in Central Asia in 2026
Ukrainian drones incapacitated up to half of Russia's oil refining capacity in 2026, significantly impacting military logistics and fuel supply in Central Asia. Countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are now sourcing oil from Iran, indicating a shift in regional fuel dynamics. The Russian military faces operational challenges as it struggles to adapt to these losses, with fuel restrictions imposed domestically. The situation reflects a broader strategic shift in the region, diminishing Russia's influence.
Dmitri VolkovWed Oct 07 2026Loading...Geranium-4 Changes the Rules of Strikes on Ukraine in Autumn 2026
Russia is modifying the Geran-4 drone to improve its autonomous capabilities, focusing on targeting logistics and infrastructure in Ukraine. This includes enhanced navigation systems and a new warhead designed for concrete and steel. Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russian strikes have damaged over 500 locomotives since February 2022, indicating a strategic shift in targeting. Concurrently, Ukraine has successfully attacked Russian fuel depots, significantly impacting their refining capacity.
Dmitri VolkovTue Oct 06 2026Loading...CSTO Exercises 2026 — 2000 Military Personnel Test the Russian Command Model
The CSTO conducted military exercises in Chebarkul from September 27 to October 3, 2026, involving 2000 personnel and over 350 units of military equipment. The exercises focused on command structure, logistics, and coordination among member states, particularly in response to modern warfare challenges. Notably, Armenia did not participate, highlighting political tensions within the alliance.
Dmitri VolkovMon Oct 05 2026Loading...
Putin's Decree on 1.55 Million Military Personnel Shows the Cost of a Prolonged War for Russia
On September 29, 2026, President Putin announced an increase in the Russian Armed Forces to 1.55 million personnel, marking the fourth adjustment in 2026. This decision coincides with plans to raise defense spending by about 27% in 2027. Reports also suggest North Korea may prepare to send 10,000 troops to assist Russia, highlighting the ongoing personnel challenges faced by the Russian military.
Dmitri VolkovTue Sep 29 2026Loading...
