Analysis & Reports

On September 23, 2026, two attacks attributed to ISIS resulted in the deaths of 57 Nigerien soldiers in Dabaga and Abala-Filingué. The attacks underscore the Nigerien military's vulnerabilities in protecting its forces and maintaining operational control. Reports indicate missing soldiers and the evacuation of bodies to Tahoua and Niamey, highlighting significant operational challenges for the Nigerien Armed Forces.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 28 2026Loading...

Seven armed groups in Ethiopia, including the TPLF, formed the Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival to oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. This coalition, announced on September 28, 2026, aims to address the fragmentation of the country and could lead to increased military tensions. The Ethiopian government recognizes the coalition's formation but asserts its control over Addis Ababa.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 28 2026Loading...

Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso formed the Sahel States Alliance (AES) after leaving ECOWAS in January 2025. The UN is discussing its reduced presence in the Sahel as local governments assert military sovereignty, following the closure of the MINUSMA mission in late 2023. The AES aims for strategic autonomy amid increasing jihadist activity and Russian political support.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 27 2026Loading...

Boko Haram and ISWAP attacked the village of Wumbi on September 21, 2026, resulting in five fatalities, including a militia leader. The assault caused significant civilian displacement and highlighted vulnerabilities in local security. Concurrently, the Nigerian Army repelled an ISWAP attack in Pulka on September 7, 2026, maintaining their positions with air support.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 27 2026Loading...

JNIM and ISSP are actively targeting gold mines in Inata and the Liptako-Gourma region, controlling supply routes and taxing miners. The groups have established operational control since June 2026, exploiting the local economy and recruiting from vulnerable communities. A recent attack on the Dioura military camp resulted in significant casualties, highlighting the operational challenges faced by local forces.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 26 2026Loading...

Togo's Foreign Minister Robert Dussey characterized the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as a security bulwark against jihadist threats during a speech in New York in September 2026. He emphasized the need for political solidarity to address the instability caused by jihadist groups in neighboring Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Togo aims to navigate its diplomatic relations with the AES while acknowledging the challenges of regional security and the limitations of the AES's operational effectiveness.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 26 2026Loading...

Diomaye Faye addressed the UN General Assembly in September 2026, calling for enhanced regional cooperation to combat terrorism in the Sahel. He highlighted the recent attack by JNIM on a Malian military camp, which resulted in numerous casualties, underscoring the urgent need for a coordinated security response. Faye's remarks reflect the challenges faced by Senegal and the broader region due to the transnational nature of terrorist threats.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 25 2026Loading...

In 2026, armed groups, particularly Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), increased incursions across the Nigeria-Sahel border, notably in Katsina, Sokoto, and Kebbi. The relationship between Nigeria and the Sahel States Alliance (AES) has deteriorated, complicating military coordination. The region has seen a rise in terrorist incidents, with a notable increase in violence and operational challenges for local forces.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 25 2026Loading...

Jihadist groups, including JNIM and the Islamic State in the Sahel, have increased their operations in the Nigeria-Niger-Benin triangle, resulting in 504 deaths in 2026. The Nigerian Armed Forces have responded by launching Operation Savannah Shield and increasing troop numbers by 28,000. Attacks on oil pipelines and the exploitation of weak border areas pose significant security challenges for the region.

Marie DuboisThu Sep 24 2026Loading...

JNIM has imposed a blockade on Bamako since April 28, 2026, destroying over 300 fuel trucks and disrupting supply routes. The blockade has forced armed escorts for transport vehicles, significantly impacting fuel availability in the capital. JNIM's actions are accompanied by coercive public rules, while their coalition with the FLA adds to the threat against Bamako.

Marie DuboisThu Sep 24 2026Loading...

JNIM attacked a Malian military post in Dioura on September 10, 2026, claiming over 100 soldiers were killed. The attack resulted in the post ceasing communication, and JNIM released videos purportedly showing captured soldiers. This incident underscores the challenges faced by isolated military positions in Mali amid rising jihadist violence.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 23 2026Loading...

Representatives from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso unified their military efforts under the Sahel Alliance (AES) on September 22, 2026. Turkey is supplying Bayraktar drones to enhance AES's military capabilities, aiming to provide a visible military presence without the political costs of Western deployments. However, the effectiveness of these drones is contingent on integrated intelligence and ground operations to counter groups like JNIM and ISIS.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 23 2026Loading...

Nigerian soldiers repelled an attack by ISWAP in Pulka on September 7, 2026, maintaining their defensive position. One soldier was injured, and air support was utilized against the retreating attackers. The military reported recovering weapons and ammunition, but did not disclose the extent of enemy losses. The ongoing threat from ISWAP and Boko Haram continues to pressure military and civilian communities in the region.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 22 2026Loading...

On September 10, 2026, JNIM launched an attack on a Malian army position in Dioura, resulting in over 100 soldiers killed. JNIM claimed to have killed 150 soldiers and captured 93. The attack underscores the vulnerability of isolated military positions in central Mali and raises questions about the effectiveness of Malian forces and their Russian allies in maintaining control.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 22 2026Loading...

The Malian army evacuated two companies from Dioura on September 21, 2026, following intense fighting with JNIM, which claimed significant casualties. Nearly 100 Malian soldiers and five members of the Russian Africa Corps were reported killed. The JNIM's strategy appears focused on eroding the Malian state's ability to maintain remote positions, highlighting vulnerabilities in the region.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 21 2026Loading...

A presumed mutiny was thwarted by military authorities in Niger on September 20, 2026, with Burkina Faso publicly supporting the junta. The incident highlights internal crises affecting the Alliance of Sahel States, raising concerns about military cohesion and operational vulnerabilities in the region. The junta faces the challenge of maintaining state stability while managing internal trust issues among military officers.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 21 2026Loading...

Sudan accuses Ethiopia of permitting Rapid Support Forces (RSF) drones to launch strikes from its territory, particularly in the Blue Nile State. On September 17, 2026, General Malik Agar highlighted increasing hostility from Addis-Ababa. The ongoing drone activity raises concerns about potential cross-border conflicts, with humanitarian organizations reporting civilian impacts.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

Algeria is reassessing its military doctrine in response to security threats from JNIM and ISIS in the Sahel. The country is considering a more active military presence beyond its borders, particularly in the In Guezzam and Agadez regions. This shift is driven by the need to address the growing influence of armed groups and the changing geopolitical landscape in the region. Algeria aims to maintain control over its immediate neighborhood and prevent foreign military presence.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

Five suspects linked to Ansaru are on trial in Ibadan, Oyo State, for the kidnapping of students and teachers. This marks a significant operational shift for Ansaru, indicating their activities are extending beyond traditional strongholds. The trial reveals the tactical complexities involved in such kidnappings and suggests a growing threat to security in Nigeria's southwestern region.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 19 2026Loading...

Mutineers targeted the presidency, airport, and national television in Niamey on the night of August 28-29, 2026, leading to a government acknowledgment of a destabilization attempt. The Nigerien Armed Forces arrested dozens to hundreds of military personnel involved in the mutiny, which has raised concerns about the loyalty of units tasked with regime protection. Civilian casualties were also reported during the incident.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 19 2026Loading...