Analysis & Reports

Seven armed groups in Ethiopia, including the TPLF, formed the Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival to oppose Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government. This coalition, announced on September 28, 2026, aims to address the fragmentation of the country and could lead to increased military tensions. The Ethiopian government recognizes the coalition's formation but asserts its control over Addis Ababa.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 28 2026Loading...

Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso formed the Sahel States Alliance (AES) after leaving ECOWAS in January 2025. The UN is discussing its reduced presence in the Sahel as local governments assert military sovereignty, following the closure of the MINUSMA mission in late 2023. The AES aims for strategic autonomy amid increasing jihadist activity and Russian political support.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 27 2026Loading...

Togo's Foreign Minister Robert Dussey characterized the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) as a security bulwark against jihadist threats during a speech in New York in September 2026. He emphasized the need for political solidarity to address the instability caused by jihadist groups in neighboring Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Togo aims to navigate its diplomatic relations with the AES while acknowledging the challenges of regional security and the limitations of the AES's operational effectiveness.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 26 2026Loading...

Diomaye Faye addressed the UN General Assembly in September 2026, calling for enhanced regional cooperation to combat terrorism in the Sahel. He highlighted the recent attack by JNIM on a Malian military camp, which resulted in numerous casualties, underscoring the urgent need for a coordinated security response. Faye's remarks reflect the challenges faced by Senegal and the broader region due to the transnational nature of terrorist threats.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 25 2026Loading...

Representatives from Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso unified their military efforts under the Sahel Alliance (AES) on September 22, 2026. Turkey is supplying Bayraktar drones to enhance AES's military capabilities, aiming to provide a visible military presence without the political costs of Western deployments. However, the effectiveness of these drones is contingent on integrated intelligence and ground operations to counter groups like JNIM and ISIS.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 23 2026Loading...

A presumed mutiny was thwarted by military authorities in Niger on September 20, 2026, with Burkina Faso publicly supporting the junta. The incident highlights internal crises affecting the Alliance of Sahel States, raising concerns about military cohesion and operational vulnerabilities in the region. The junta faces the challenge of maintaining state stability while managing internal trust issues among military officers.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 21 2026Loading...

Algeria is reassessing its military doctrine in response to security threats from JNIM and ISIS in the Sahel. The country is considering a more active military presence beyond its borders, particularly in the In Guezzam and Agadez regions. This shift is driven by the need to address the growing influence of armed groups and the changing geopolitical landscape in the region. Algeria aims to maintain control over its immediate neighborhood and prevent foreign military presence.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 20 2026Loading...

Five suspects linked to Ansaru are on trial in Ibadan, Oyo State, for the kidnapping of students and teachers. This marks a significant operational shift for Ansaru, indicating their activities are extending beyond traditional strongholds. The trial reveals the tactical complexities involved in such kidnappings and suggests a growing threat to security in Nigeria's southwestern region.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 19 2026Loading...

Algeria and Mali resumed diplomatic dialogue on September 15, 2026, signaling a thaw in relations after months of tension. The two nations aim to enhance cooperation on security issues in the Sahel, recognizing the need for joint efforts to address instability. Algeria's strategic position and local connections may facilitate this cooperation, although the effectiveness will depend on involving local actors in the process.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 15 2026Loading...

Venâncio Mondlane faces treason charges in Mozambique, linked to post-election violence in November 2024 that resulted in over 300 deaths. The Mozambican government is accused of using these charges to suppress political opposition ahead of upcoming elections. Meanwhile, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado continues to displace nearly one million people, complicating the security landscape as the government struggles to maintain control in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 13 2026Loading...

WACCE issued an alert regarding the jihadist threat from Burkina Faso to Ghana on September 11, 2026. The report indicates that while there are no confirmed jihadist cells in Ghana, the conditions for their spread are present due to ongoing violence in Burkina Faso and population displacement. It emphasizes the need for local cooperation and intelligence to prevent potential infiltration along the northern border.

Marie DuboisSun Sep 13 2026Loading...

Algeria deployed four Su-30 aircraft to Niamey, Niger, on August 30, 2026, in response to a mutiny by soldiers. This deployment, framed as military support for Niger, marks a significant shift in Algeria's military policy, allowing for intervention under certain conditions. The move is part of a broader strategic partnership, including energy cooperation, between Algeria and Niger.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 12 2026Loading...

The U.S. delivered military equipment to Nigeria in September 2026 while simultaneously reducing its troop presence. This shift aims to enhance the capabilities of the Nigerian Armed Forces against jihadist threats, particularly in the Lake Chad Basin. The U.S. strategy emphasizes local partnerships and operational support rather than direct military engagement, reflecting a broader reconfiguration of its military presence in West Africa.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 11 2026Loading...

Nigeria has been negotiating a three-month ceasefire with Boko Haram since June 2023, following the release of 360 civilians. The ceasefire, which may be extended, is focused on communities near Ngoshe in Borno. However, ISWAP, a rival group, is not part of this agreement, raising concerns about the potential for increased violence. Previous ceasefire attempts have collapsed, indicating uncertainty about the effectiveness of this arrangement.

Marie DuboisThu Sep 10 2026Loading...

Mutinous soldiers attacked a strategic airbase in Niamey on the night of August 29-30, 2026, but were repelled by forces loyal to General Abdourahamane Tiani. The Nigerien government accused France of orchestrating the mutiny, a claim that France denied. Russian personnel reportedly assisted in regaining control of the base, indicating a shift in military alliances.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 09 2026Loading...

The Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) is expanding its influence over gold mining operations in the Sahel, particularly in Burkina Faso, and is threatening neighboring countries like Ghana and Senegal. In 2026, JNIM is not only controlling mining areas but also extracting resources from local miners, establishing a system of taxation and control. This evolving situation poses significant risks to regional security as jihadist groups adapt their strategies to maintain their presence and influence.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 05 2026Loading...

On September 1, 2026, a national security conference took place in Mogadishu, focusing on the transition from AUSSOM and the coordination of security efforts. Somali intelligence reported the killing of a significant Al-Shabaab intelligence leader in Jilib, highlighting ongoing military operations. The conference addressed critical issues such as political oversight and funding for security institutions, indicating the fragile state of security in Somalia as the country prepares to take on more responsibilities.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 02 2026Loading...

Governor Babagana Zulum suspended local village chiefs in Mallam-Fatori, Borno, highlighting the fragility of civil return in 2026. He inspected damaged infrastructure and emphasized the need for local governance alongside military presence to ensure stability. The 68th Battalion remains active in the area, but the lack of local leadership raises security concerns as displaced populations begin to return.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 01 2026Loading...

Nigerien soldiers engaged in a mutiny at Base 101 in Niamey on August 28-29, 2026, taking hostages and attempting to seize key government locations. The mutiny was met with support from the Africa Corps and Algerian military, highlighting Niger's reliance on foreign assistance amid internal strife. The situation reflects a deteriorating security environment and challenges to the current military regime's authority.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 01 2026Loading...

Mutinous soldiers attempted to seize control of Niamey's Diori Hamani airport and the presidential perimeter on August 29, 2023. Algeria deployed four Su-30 aircraft, an Il-76 transport, and an Il-78 refueling aircraft to support Niger against destabilization attempts. The Africa Corps, a Russian force, intervened to assist in countering the mutiny, highlighting the Nigerien military's reliance on foreign support amid internal divisions.

Marie DuboisMon Aug 31 2026Loading...