Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
Mali 2026 — the army and Africa Corps cross the threshold of the RBK-500
The Malian Army conducted airstrikes last week in Oubder and Tadjmart, utilizing RBK-500 cluster munitions. These strikes are part of anti-terror operations aimed at denying territory to armed groups. The use of such munitions raises concerns about long-term civilian safety due to unexploded ordnance. The involvement of Africa Corps, a paramilitary force linked to Russia, highlights the complex military dynamics in the region.
Marie DuboisFri May 22 2026Loading...
AFRICOM warns of 10 ISIS and al-Qaeda networks in Africa after 75% withdrawal
AFRICOM warns of the increasing presence of ISIS and al-Qaeda networks in Africa, particularly following a 75% reduction in its regional military posture. General Dagvin Anderson emphasized that the epicenter of global terrorism has shifted to Africa, with at least 10 terrorist organizations now operating on the continent. The report also notes the rising use of drones by insurgents in Mali and the growing connections between various jihadist groups across the region.
Marie DuboisThu May 21 2026Loading...27 Naparama killed in Mozambique in 2026 — the Islamic State pushes towards Palma
On May 17, 2026, 27 members of the Naparama militia were killed in a twelve-hour engagement with ISIS-affiliated insurgents in Katapua, Cabo Delgado, Mozambique. The confrontation began after the insurgents set fire to the village of Messanja and ended when they crossed the Megaruma River. This incident marks the heaviest loss for the Naparama militia in a single action, highlighting the operational challenges they face against better-armed jihadists.
Marie DuboisThu May 21 2026Loading...48 schoolchildren kidnapped in Borno in 2026 expose the educational failure against Boko Haram
Armed men abducted 48 schoolchildren in Mussa-Biri, Borno State, during school hours on May 20, 2026. Boko Haram is suspected to be behind the attack, which underscores the ongoing security challenges in the region. The Nigerian military engaged Boko Haram fighters in a separate incident in Gajibo on the same day, indicating a complex operational environment.
Marie DuboisWed May 20 2026Loading...
The 4 Super Tucano of Togo announce a coastal air defense against JNIM in 2026
Togo will receive four Embraer A-29 Super Tucano aircraft in 2026 to enhance its coastal air defense against the Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM). The aircraft will be based in Niamtougou, strategically located near the Burkina Faso border, where JNIM operates. This procurement aims to address the ongoing threat of terrorism in the region, despite previous incidents resulting in civilian and military casualties.
Marie DuboisWed May 20 2026Loading...
Metele struck by the United States and Nigeria — 20 ISWAP fighters killed in 2026
On May 17, 2026, U.S. Africa Command and Nigerian forces conducted airstrikes in Metele, Borno, killing over 20 ISWAP fighters. This operation, part of a broader campaign against terrorist networks, was confirmed by both AFRICOM and the Nigerian Defence Headquarters. The strikes utilized U.S. intelligence and precision targeting capabilities.
Marie DuboisTue May 19 2026Loading...
Lavrov courts Equatorial Guinea in 2026 and promotes the Russian model towards the Gulf of Guinea
On May 18, 2026, Russia expressed its readiness to enhance military-technical cooperation with Equatorial Guinea during a meeting in Moscow. The Equatorial Guinean foreign minister praised Russia's involvement in the Sahel, framing it as a stabilizing force. This cooperation aims to address Equatorial Guinea's defense needs, focusing on regime protection and maritime security, while positioning Russia as a key partner in the Gulf of Guinea.
Marie DuboisTue May 19 2026Loading...Famine threatens 6 million Somalis and opens an operational breach for Al-Shabaab in 2026
In 2026, a humanitarian crisis due to famine threatens 6 million Somalis, particularly in Burhakaba, Baidoa, and Hiiraan. Al-Shabaab is exploiting the situation to enhance its operational capabilities as government forces engage in conflicts with local militias. The closure of the Kenyan border complicates trade and security, while the rising costs of essential supplies hinder humanitarian efforts.
Marie DuboisMon May 18 2026Loading...
The DRC creates a mining guard of 20,000 men and militarizes the cobalt battle
The Democratic Republic of the Congo is establishing a mining guard of 20,000 personnel to secure cobalt extraction sites and transport routes. The initial deployment of 2,500 to 3,000 recruits is expected by December 2026, with support from the United States and the UAE. This initiative aims to control the mining sector amid ongoing military risks from armed groups in the eastern DRC, where cobalt production is critical for global supply chains.
Marie DuboisMon May 18 2026Loading...Mainok killed in Nigeria and 400 Starlink terminals expose ISWAP's nerve
On May 16, 2023, U.S. forces conducted a successful operation resulting in the death of ISWAP leader Abubakar Mainok in Maiduguri. Concurrently, over 400 Starlink terminals were seized from insurgent networks, indicating ISWAP's logistical capabilities. The report also highlights recent attacks on schools and military brigades, demonstrating ongoing insurgent activity in the region.
Marie DuboisSun May 17 2026Loading...
The Sahel at the Turning Point: The Coordinated Attacks of April 25, 2026 and the Strategic Reconfiguration of West Africa
On April 25, 2026, JNIM and FLA launched coordinated attacks on strategic positions in Mali, including Bamako, Kati, Gao, Kidal, Sevare, and Mopti. The fall of Kidal marked a significant setback for the Malian government, while the assassination of Defense Minister General Sadio Camara on April 26 further destabilized the regime. This offensive highlights the deep vulnerabilities of the transitional government and the evolving dynamics of militant alliances in the region.
Marie DuboisSun May 17 2026Loading...The jihadist offensive of April 25, 2026 in Mali: a strategic break for the Sahel and its external partners
On April 25, 2026, JNIM and FLA launched a coordinated offensive against Malian forces in Bamako, Kati, Kidal, Gao, Sévaré, Mopti, and Bourem, resulting in over 1,000 enemy combatants killed and significant casualties among Malian troops. The offensive included the use of explosive-laden vehicles and led to the downing of a Mil Mi-35 helicopter. JNIM subsequently declared a 'total siege' of Bamako, demanding the withdrawal of Russian forces.
Marie DuboisSat May 16 2026Loading...
The Sahel at the Time of Unprecedented Alliances: The Coordinated Offensives of April-May 2026 and the Security Restructuring of West Africa
A coalition of the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA) and Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) launched a coordinated offensive against Malian armed forces and their Russian allies from April 25 to May 7, 2026, capturing key locations including Kidal. The offensive resulted in significant casualties, including the death of Malian Defense Minister General Sadio Camara. Additionally, JNIM attacked a military post in Benin, indicating a broader regional threat.
Marie DuboisSat May 16 2026Loading...The Sahel at the Time of the Coordinated Offensive: The Strategic Reconfiguration of West African Jihadism and the Erosion of the Russo-Sahelian Framework
On April 25, 2026, JNIM and FLA launched a coordinated offensive across multiple locations in Mali, resulting in the death of General Sadio Camara and significant casualties among both enemy fighters and Malian soldiers. The offensive has destabilized the Malian junta's control, with JNIM expanding operations into Benin, where they attacked a military post, killing seven soldiers. Russian airstrikes also reported high enemy casualties, indicating a severe escalation in the conflict.
Marie DuboisFri May 15 2026Loading...The JNIM Offensive in Mali: Fracture of the Sahel Security Model and Regional Recomposition
On April 25, 2026, JNIM and FLA conducted coordinated attacks across five Malian cities, including a suicide bombing that killed the Defense Minister in Kati. This operation marks a significant strategic shift, as JNIM, with 5,000 to 6,000 fighters, has initiated an economic blockade of Bamako, aiming to undermine the Malian state. The attacks reflect a growing sophistication in tactics and a new alliance between jihadist and secular separatist forces.
Marie DuboisFri May 15 2026Loading...The Offensive of April 25, 2026 in Mali: Strategic Fracture and Reconfiguration of the Security Landscape in the Sahel
A coalition of the Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA), Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), and Islamic State Sahel Province (IS-SP) launched a large-scale offensive against Malian government forces on April 25, 2026. The attack resulted in significant casualties, including the death of Defense Minister Sadio Camara and over 200 Malian military personnel. The FLA has taken control of Kidal, while JNIM claims control over parts of Mopti and Gao, indicating a severe deterioration of the Malian security situation.
Marie DuboisThu May 14 2026Loading...
Coordinated Offensives in Mali: The Largest Insurrectional Operation Since 2012 Reshapes the Security Architecture of the Sahel
Coordinated insurgent attacks by the Front de Libération de l'Azawad (FLA) and Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) struck multiple locations in Mali on April 25-26, 2026, resulting in significant casualties, including the death of Defense Minister General Sadio Camara. The FLA and JNIM claimed control over several strategic areas, prompting the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) to initiate retaliatory airstrikes. The situation reflects a concerning tactical alliance between historically rival groups.
Marie DuboisWed May 13 2026Loading...
Mali, Breaking Point: The April 25 Offensive Redefines the Security Map of the Sahel
On April 25, 2026, a coordinated offensive by Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Front de Libération de l'Azawad (FLA) targeted key political and military leaders in Mali, resulting in the death of Defense Minister General Sadio Camara and significant territorial losses. The offensive represents a strategic turning point in the Sahel, with Kidal returning to rebel control and the credibility of Russian forces severely undermined.
Marie DuboisWed May 13 2026Loading...The offensive of April 25, 2026 in Mali: a turning point for the Alliance of Sahel States and regional security
On April 25, 2026, coordinated attacks by armed groups targeted Bamako, Gao, Kidal, and Ménaka, resulting in the death of Malian Defense Minister Sadio Camara. In response, the Alliance of Sahel States initiated air campaigns against insurgent positions on May 1, marking a significant military operation. The region is experiencing escalating violence, with over 2,600 conflict-related deaths reported in early 2026.
Marie DuboisTue May 12 2026Loading...The Coordinated Offensive of April 25 in Mali: A Strategic Turning Point for Security in the Sahel
On April 25, 2026, armed groups launched a coordinated offensive in Mali, attacking Bamako, Kati, Gao, Kidal, and Sévaré, resulting in significant military and political setbacks for the regime. General Sadio Camara, the Malian Defense Minister, was killed in a suicide bombing. The offensive marked a strategic turning point in the Sahel region, highlighting the deep vulnerabilities of the current security architecture.
Marie DuboisTue May 12 2026Loading...
