Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
The Sahel on the Brink of Interstate Conflict: Military Tensions between the AES and ECOWAS
The Sahel States Alliance (AES) activated a joint force of 5,000 soldiers from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger in December 2025 amid escalating military tensions with the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). ECOWAS plans to deploy a 260,000-strong counter-terrorism force, further straining relations. A Nigerian military intervention in Benin in February 2026 was viewed by the AES as a sovereignty violation, while U.S. airstrikes in Nigeria have complicated the security landscape. The AES is pivoting towards Russia for military support.
Marie DuboisFri Mar 13 2026Loading...The Jihadist Expansion towards the Gulf of Guinea: JNIM's Offensive Marks a Strategic Turning Point
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) launched a coordinated attack on military posts in Kofono, Benin, on March 7, 2026, resulting in 15 fatalities and 5 injuries among Beninese security forces. This incident highlights a significant strategic shift as jihadist groups expand their operations from the Sahel to coastal West Africa, exploiting regional security weaknesses.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...Regional offensive of JNIM in the Sahel: the defection of a commander triggers an unprecedented escalation
JNIM launched a large-scale offensive in February 2026, targeting military forces in Burkina Faso, following the defection of commander Sadou Samahouna to ISIS. The offensive included over 30 attacks, resulting in more than 120 casualties among soldiers and pro-government militias. The most lethal attack occurred in Titao, where 80 military personnel and militia members were killed. Concurrently, ISIS conducted its own offensive against JNIM positions, highlighting the ongoing conflict between these jihadist groups in the Sahel region.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...The Alliance of Sahel States Facing the Jihadist Challenge: Between Tactical Successes and Strategic Realignments
Malian, Burkinabè, and Nigerien forces conducted coordinated military operations from February 21 to March 9, 2026, eliminating over 100 terrorists. The Malian Armed Forces executed a surgical airstrike in Yanfolila, while the Burkinabè army launched a counter-offensive in Northern Sahel. Nigerien forces successfully repelled an attack on the Tahua airport. These actions reflect an intensified commitment to counter-terrorism amid evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...
Sahel: The rivalry between the Sahel States Alliance and ECOWAS in the face of jihadist escalation
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) deployed 5,000 to 6,000 troops in December 2025 to combat jihadist insurgency, while the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) plans a 260,000-strong anti-terror force by 2026. Jihadist groups, including JNIM and EIGS, have intensified attacks in the Sahel, notably against military installations in Burkina Faso and Niger. This military escalation highlights the political rivalry between AES and ECOWAS amid a deteriorating security situation in the region.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...Sahel: The rivalry between the Sahel States Alliance and ECOWAS in the face of jihadist escalation
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) deployed a unified force of 5,000 to 6,000 fighters in December 2025 to combat jihadist insurgency in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Meanwhile, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) announced plans for a larger regional anti-terrorist force comprising 260,000 soldiers, supported by a $2.5 billion annual budget. This situation highlights the political divide between the military juntas in the Sahel and the broader ECOWAS community.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...The American Return to the Sahel: Between Strategic Pragmatism and Redefinition of Alliances
The U.S. is negotiating security cooperation agreements with military juntas in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso as of March 2026. This includes the potential resumption of drone surveillance over Mali to monitor jihadist groups. Concurrently, jihadist activities have escalated in Nigeria, leading to military casualties. Sahelian forces have also reported tactical successes against militants, indicating a complex security landscape in the region.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...The Sahel at a Crossroads: Washington Reconnects with Military Juntas in the Face of Jihadist Rise
The U.S. is negotiating a return to military operations in the Sahel, including drone surveillance over Mali, while Nigerien forces successfully conducted operations against jihadists. Russian forces are providing military support to Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, amid increasing jihadist violence in Nigeria. This situation reflects a complex geopolitical landscape with implications for U.S. interests in the region.
Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...The Sahel Facing Strategic Fragmentation: Rivalry between ECOWAS and the Sahel States Alliance in the Counter-Terrorism Fight
ECOWAS is set to deploy 2000 soldiers by the end of 2026 to combat terrorism in the Sahel, while the Sahel States Alliance, comprising Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, aims to establish a joint force of 5000-6000 fighters. This dual military architecture arises amid rising terrorist threats and significant humanitarian crises, with Nigeria's economic challenges limiting its support for ECOWAS operations.
Marie DuboisWed Mar 11 2026Loading...Sahel: Between Territorial Reconquests and Strategic Reconfiguration, the Anti-Jihadist Offensive Marks a Turning Point in March 2026
Burkinabè Armed Forces regained control of several strategic towns in Burkina Faso from jihadist groups in February 2026. Coordinated operations with Malian forces resulted in the elimination of over 100 militants. The U.S. lifted sanctions on Malian officials to facilitate ISR operations, while ECOWAS deployed a new military force to address the growing jihadist threat in West Africa. Ongoing attacks by the Islamic State in Niger underscore the persistent security challenges in the region.
Marie DuboisWed Mar 11 2026Loading...Sahel: The ECOWAS-AES Rivalry Redefines the Regional Security Architecture
ECOWAS announced the deployment of 2000 soldiers by 2026, while the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) launched a unified force of 5000 soldiers in December 2025. On March 10, 2026, ISIS-Sahel attacked the Tahoua airport in Niger, targeting military drones. The security situation in the Sahel remains dire, with over 2.6 million displaced and terrorism-related deaths surpassing 10,000 in 2025.
Marie DuboisTue Mar 10 2026Loading...The Sahel States Alliance Strengthens Its Unified Force: Analysis of a New Regional Security Architecture
The Alliance of Sahel States (AES) expanded its Unified Force to 6,000 soldiers by early 2026, intensifying military operations against jihadist threats. In March 2026, Malian and Burkinabè forces conducted airstrikes that neutralized over 100 militants in Sikasso and Djibo. The presence of approximately 1,000 Russian contractors in Mali supports AES operations, while ECOWAS plans to deploy a rapid response force of 1,650 soldiers in 2026. The situation reflects a complex security dynamic in the Sahel region.
Marie DuboisTue Mar 10 2026Loading...Sahel: The rivalry between the AES and ECOWAS reshapes West African security geopolitics
The Unified Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) was officially launched in December 2025, comprising 6,000 soldiers from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, with its headquarters in Niamey. This force aims to counter the growing terrorist threat independently, while the Economic Community of West African States (CEDEAO) plans to establish a standby force of 260,000 soldiers by 2026. Recent terrorist attacks have intensified, highlighting the urgent need for effective regional cooperation amidst political fractures.
Marie DuboisMon Mar 09 2026Loading...Sahel: Institutional Fragmentation in the Face of Terrorist Escalation
ECOWAS activated a regional force of 2,000 soldiers in March 2026 to address escalating terrorist threats in the Sahel. The main terrorist groups, JNIM and ISSP, continue to conduct sophisticated attacks, including a drone assault on Niamey's airport. JNIM has imposed a blockade on fuel convoys in Mali, while the AES has launched a unified force of 6,000 men to combat the crisis. The situation remains critical as these groups threaten regional stability.
Marie DuboisMon Mar 09 2026Loading...The Sahel between Militarization and Fragmentation: The Escalation of Regional Rivalries Redefines the West African Security Architecture
On January 29, 2026, 30 ISIS fighters attacked the Diori Hamani International Airport in Niamey, highlighting the ineffectiveness of current military strategies. In response to escalating violence, ECOWAS announced a plan for a 260,000-soldier anti-terror force, while the U.S. deployed 100 military personnel to Nigeria to bolster local efforts against terrorism. The Sahel region faces increasing fragmentation and competition among security architectures.
Marie DuboisSun Mar 08 2026Loading...Sahel: Accelerated Militarization in Response to Terrorist Escalation and Geopolitical Tensions
IS-Sahel attacked Niamey International Airport on January 29, 2026, using armed drones and mortars, marking a significant escalation in regional terrorism. JNIM has conducted over 500 attacks in Burkina Faso, controlling 60% of the territory. The CEDEAO activated a standby force of 2,000 soldiers in March 2026, while Russian fighters have been deployed in the AES countries. The situation reflects a deteriorating security environment in the Sahel.
Marie DuboisSun Mar 08 2026Loading...Sahel 2026: Two Military Architectures Facing the Persistent Jihadist Threat
On February 26, 2026, defense ministers from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger met in Ouagadougou to finalize the AES's roadmap for combating jihadist insurgency. The AES has increased its military force to 6,000 soldiers, while ECOWAS plans to deploy 260,000 troops against terrorism. ISIS launched an attack on a Niger military base, highlighting ongoing security challenges in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. has resumed airstrikes against ISIS in Nigeria.
Marie DuboisSat Mar 07 2026Loading...Sahel 2026: Two Military Architectures Against the Jihadist Threat
Defense ministers from Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger convened in Ouagadougou on February 26, 2026, to discuss the critical reconfiguration of security in the Sahel region. This meeting highlights ongoing military cooperation among these nations in response to jihadist threats.
Marie DuboisSat Mar 07 2026Loading...Sahel: The Joint Force of the G5 Sahel Against the Intensification of the Jihadist Threat
The Joint Force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) conducted military operations against jihadist groups in the Sahel region in March 2026, eliminating over 100 militants. Burkinabè forces launched an offensive around Djibo, while the AES coordinated efforts to counter the transnational threat. The report highlights the increasing use of armed drones by jihadist groups and the ongoing humanitarian crisis in the region.
Marie DuboisSat Mar 07 2026Loading...Sahel 2026: The Terrorist Escalation Challenges New Regional Security Architectures
Thirty fighters from the Islamic State launched a coordinated assault on the Diori Hamani International Airport and Base 101 in Niamey on January 28-29, 2026, resulting in the destruction of five military aircraft. This attack highlights the escalating terrorist activities in the Sahel, with JNIM increasing operations in Burkina Faso. In response, the Alliance of Sahel States has initiated a unified force of 6000 soldiers, while ECOWAS plans to deploy an additional 2000 soldiers by the end of 2026.
Marie DuboisFri Mar 06 2026Loading...
