Analysis & Reports
AI-assisted analysis of military-related information from public sources
The unified force of the AES increases to 6,000 men — the military bet of the three capitals in the face of security chaos
Nigerien President Abdourahamane Tiani announced an increase in the unified force of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) from 5,000 to 6,000 soldiers on February 14, 2024, in Niamey. This move reflects the strategic ambitions of the military regimes in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso amid ongoing jihadist threats. The AES, formed in response to regional pressures and the withdrawal of French forces, aims to establish operational capability without Western support, while also signaling a shift towards closer ties with Russia.
Marie DuboisSun Feb 15 2026Loading...69 drone attacks in two years — JNIM transforms asymmetric warfare in the Sahel
Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) has conducted 69 drone attacks in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Togo since early 2023, utilizing modified commercial drones to drop improvised explosive devices (IEDs). The Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) and Wilayat Sahel have also engaged in similar operations across Nigeria, Cameroon, Niger, and Chad. This marks a significant evolution in asymmetric warfare tactics in the Sahel region, with jihadist groups coordinating their efforts and sharing operational knowledge.
Marie DuboisSat Feb 14 2026Loading...Moscow institutionalizes its presence in the Sahel — strategic agreement with Ouagadougou and AES ministerial format
On February 12, 2026, Russia formalized its military presence in the Sahel by signing a strategic agreement with Burkina Faso, focusing on security and counter-terrorism. This agreement marks a transition from private military contractor involvement to state-level cooperation, with Russian forces now operating under a formal diplomatic framework. The presence of Russian military personnel is increasing in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, as Moscow seeks to enhance its influence in the region amid a withdrawal of Western forces.
Marie DuboisSat Feb 14 2026Loading...Washington Returns to the Sahel — 200 American Instructors Deployed to Nigeria to Counter Jihadist Expansion
The Pentagon confirmed the deployment of 200 U.S. military instructors to Nigeria on February 12, 2026, to train Nigerian armed forces in their fight against jihadist groups. This marks the first official ground deployment since controversial airstrikes in December 2025. The U.S. aims to support Nigeria amid rising jihadist threats and following the withdrawal of French forces from the Sahel region.
Marie DuboisFri Feb 13 2026Loading...36 Nigerien soldiers killed in Makalondi — JNIM strikes the Niger-Burkina Faso border
JNIM launched a deliberate assault on a fortified military position in Makalondi on February 4, resulting in the deaths of 36 Nigerien soldiers. The attackers seized at least 12 military vehicles equipped with heavy machine guns. This incident highlights the increasing operational capability of JNIM in the Tillabéri region, which has been a hotspot for jihadist activity.
Marie DuboisFri Feb 13 2026Loading...The Russian African Corps Takes Root in Niamey After Repelling the Islamic State's Assault
On January 28, thirty Islamic State fighters launched a coordinated assault on Niamey International Airport, targeting both the civilian terminal and the adjacent military base. The Russian African Corps and Nigerien Armed Forces repelled the attack, resulting in twenty attackers killed and four Nigerien soldiers injured. This incident underscores the growing military collaboration between Russia and Niger.
Marie DuboisThu Feb 12 2026Loading...The JNIM Drones Transform the War in the Sahel
JNIM launched a sophisticated drone attack on Niamey on January 29, 2025, targeting the international airport and military base. The assault involved RPGs and mortars, damaging military drones and a civilian aircraft. This marks a significant escalation in tactics, showcasing JNIM's advanced operational capabilities and integration of drone technology into their warfare strategy.
Marie DuboisThu Feb 12 2026Loading...Washington Returns to Bamako: The New American Strategy in the Sahel Challenges Russian Influence
On February 3, 2023, U.S. Secretary of State Nick Checker arrived in Bamako to discuss counter-terrorism cooperation and economic relations with Mali's Foreign Minister. The U.S. is shifting its strategy in the Sahel, moving away from democracy promotion and focusing on intelligence sharing and potential arms supplies to combat jihadist threats. Russian contractors are currently operating in the region, complicating the security landscape.
Marie DuboisWed Feb 11 2026Loading...In Kokoloko, a Nigerien drone strikes a crowded market and kills 17 civilians
A Nigerien military drone struck a crowded market in Kokoloko on January 6, 2026, killing 17 civilians and injuring 13 others. Three ISIS fighters were also killed in the attack. The incident has raised concerns about the legality of such strikes under international humanitarian law, as the market was filled with civilians. Following the strike, most residents fled the village.
Marie DuboisWed Feb 11 2026Loading...The American Strikes in Sokoto Reveal AFRICOM's New Strategy in the Sahel
U.S. Air Force conducted airstrikes on December 25, 2025, in Bauni, Nigeria, killing over 100 fighters. The strikes targeted positions claimed to be affiliated with ISIS, but local sources indicate the presence of the Lakurawa group instead. This operation signifies a renewed military strategy by AFRICOM in Africa, raising concerns about civilian casualties and the accuracy of intelligence used.
Marie DuboisTue Feb 10 2026Loading...The attack on Niamey airport reveals the ISWAP-ISIS alliance between Lake Chad and the Sahel
ISWAP and ISIS affiliates attacked Niamey International Airport on January 29, destroying a Bayraktar TB2 drone and damaging several aircraft, resulting in 27 government personnel fatalities. This operation highlights a growing alliance between ISWAP and ISIS factions, with implications for regional security as they coordinate attacks across the Sahel and Lake Chad Basin.
Marie DuboisTue Feb 10 2026Loading...Washington returns to the Sahel after the failure of its conditional strategy against the juntas
On February 7, 2025, U.S. officials engaged with the Malian junta in Bamako, marking a shift in U.S. policy after years of military cooperation suspension. The U.S. aims to address security threats, particularly from jihadist groups, while navigating the presence of Russian mercenaries in the region. Recent attacks have resulted in significant casualties among Nigerien soldiers, highlighting the ongoing instability in the Sahel.
Marie DuboisMon Feb 09 2026Loading...Niger Under Double Pressure: 36 Soldiers Killed in Makalondi, Russia Intervenes in Niamey
On February 4, 2026, 36 Nigerien soldiers were killed in Makalondi as JNIM fighters overwhelmed a military position, capturing at least 12 armored vehicles. Concurrently, the Islamic State in the Sahel attacked Niamey's Diori Hamani International Airport, resulting in 20 assailants killed. Russian forces confirmed their role in defending the airport, while the U.S. deployed a small military team to Nigeria, marking a renewed American presence in the region.
Marie DuboisMon Feb 09 2026Loading...34 Miners and Traders Killed on the Gao-Ansongo Road: When Military Escorts Turn Civilian Convoys into Targets in Mali
On February 7, 2024, a convoy of 19 civilian vehicles was attacked by Islamist fighters on the Gao-Ansongo Road near Kobe, Mali, resulting in 34 deaths and 34 injuries. The convoy, which included Nigerien miners and Malian traders, was under military escort when it came under fire. The Islamic State in the Greater Sahara is suspected of the attack, which underscores the risks posed by military escorts to civilian safety in the region.
Marie DuboisSun Feb 08 2026Loading...Washington Returns to the Sahel Through the Back Door
U.S. Secretary of State Nick Checker visited Mali in January 2024, signaling a strategic shift in U.S. policy towards the Sahel. The U.S. plans to offer intelligence and potential arms to Sahelian juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, moving away from previous democratic conditionality. This engagement aims to counter the growing jihadist threat and Russian influence in the region.
Marie DuboisSat Feb 07 2026Loading...The Attack on Air Base 101 Reveals the Flaws of the Militarized Sahel
Over thirty fighters from the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara attacked the Diori Hamani International Airport and Base Aérienne 101 in Niamey, Niger, shortly after midnight on January 29. The assault lasted nearly two hours, resulting in three civilian aircraft being hit and one ammunition depot destroyed. Four Nigerien soldiers were injured, and local reports indicate twenty attackers were killed and eleven captured.
Marie DuboisSat Feb 07 2026Loading...The Jihadist Expansion of the Sahel into Nigeria: Kwara State, New Front of the Terrorist Threat
On February 4, 2026, a terrorist attack in Kaiama, Kwara State, Nigeria, resulted in over 160 civilian casualties. In response, President Bola Tinubu deployed a full battalion of the Nigerian Armed Forces to address the escalating jihadist threat. This incident marks a significant shift in jihadist operations, with groups from the Sahel expanding their activities into central Nigeria, exploiting local vulnerabilities and limited security presence.
Marie DuboisFri Feb 06 2026Loading...The Niamey Attack Reveals New Security Dynamics in the Sahel: Between Russian Presence, Diplomatic Accusations, and Western Realignment
The Islamic State in the Sahel launched a coordinated attack on Niamey airport on January 28, 2026, involving approximately 20 assailants equipped with heavy weapons and drones. The assault resulted in the deaths of 20 attackers and injuries to four Nigerien soldiers. This incident highlights a significant escalation in jihadist operations and the evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel, particularly with the involvement of Russian military forces.
Marie DuboisFri Feb 06 2026Loading...
