Analysis & Reports

The Nigerian military rejected any ceasefire agreement with Boko Haram and ISWAP on November 5, 2026, affirming that military operations will persist. This denial highlights the sensitive nature of maintaining control in the northeast, where armed groups exploit gaps in military presence. The situation in the Lake Chad Basin remains complicated, with various factions operating independently.

Marie DuboisSat Nov 07 2026Loading...

Nigeria is collaborating with the Sahel States Alliance (AES) to reposition the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) due to security gaps following Niger's withdrawal. The MNJTF, operational since 1994, faces challenges from ISWAP and Boko Haram in the Lake Chad region. The Nigerian Defense spokesperson emphasized the need for a diplomatic approach to reintegrate Niger while maintaining its sovereignty. The situation remains critical as armed groups exploit the security vacuum.

Marie DuboisSat Nov 07 2026Loading...

Algeria is preparing to deploy troops to Niger in 2026, marking its first significant military projection abroad in over fifty years. This deployment aims to address security concerns and prevent instability from affecting Algeria's southern regions. The exact details of the troop numbers and mission remain undisclosed, but the move signifies a shift in Algeria's approach to regional security in the Sahel.

Marie DuboisFri Nov 06 2026Loading...

Russian security companies are competing for control of a gold mine in Burkina Faso as of November 2, 2026. This competition is influenced by the activities of the JNIM, which seeks to exploit local economies and disrupt transport routes. The mine's strategic importance extends beyond economic gain, serving as a military position and a political bargaining chip for Russia.

Marie DuboisMon Nov 02 2026Loading...

On November 1, 2026, the Algerian parliament approved the deployment of troops to Niger to protect strategic interests and energy facilities. This decision follows Algeria's earlier military support to Niger, including the dispatch of Su-30 fighter jets. The move reflects Algeria's shift in military policy and aims to establish a direct security presence in Niger amid regional instability.

Marie DuboisSun Nov 01 2026Loading...

Russia is enhancing its military and diplomatic presence in the Sahel region, focusing on cooperation with Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The Russia-Africa summit on October 30, 2026, resulted in a plan for action from 2027 to 2029, emphasizing military support without democratic prerequisites. The Africa Corps has replaced the Wagner Group in official communications, indicating a shift in Russia's approach to regional influence.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 30 2026Loading...

Ethiopia received 12 Su-35 fighter jets from Russia, enhancing its military capabilities amid escalating conflict in Tigray. The Ethiopian government also announced the forthcoming delivery of S-400 air defense systems. This acquisition is seen as a strategic move to address external threats and protect critical infrastructure. Eritrea expresses concern over these developments, which could alter the regional security dynamics.

Marie DuboisThu Oct 29 2026Loading...

Ghana has maintained a state of calm in Bawku for 150 days, allowing markets to reopen and easing curfews. The government announced an investment of $85.7 million to revitalize the area, aiming to restore its economic role. The situation remains fragile, with the potential for jihadist influence from the JNIM, which could exploit local grievances if not managed effectively.

Marie DuboisWed Oct 28 2026Loading...

Algeria approved the deployment of troops to Niger on October 25, 2026, following a unanimous vote in Parliament. This move aims to protect oil facilities and deter destabilization efforts in the region. The deployment comes after Algeria sent Russian aircraft to Niger and reflects a shift in regional security dynamics as Western powers reduce their presence.

Marie DuboisWed Oct 28 2026Loading...

Algeria's People's National Army is set to deploy units to Niger in 2026 following parliamentary approval on October 25. This marks Algeria's first military projection outside its borders since 1973, aimed at safeguarding its energy and economic interests. The specifics regarding troop numbers and deployment duration remain undisclosed.

Marie DuboisTue Oct 27 2026Loading...

Algeria's National Council approved the deployment of troops to Niger on October 25, 2026, to secure oil facilities and counter threats from JNIM and Russia. This marks Algeria's first military operation outside its borders since 1973. The deployment includes Su-30 aircraft, indicating a significant shift in Algeria's defense policy and military readiness in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Oct 25 2026Loading...

JNIM claimed control of a militia post in Kando, Burkina Faso, on October 22, 2026. This incident, reported by Sahel Liveuamap, has not been independently verified by the government. The attack indicates a shift in JNIM's operational strategy, potentially increasing insecurity along trade routes in the region. The geographical significance of Kando suggests that JNIM may be testing the state's military response.

Marie DuboisSat Oct 24 2026Loading...

On October 23, 2026, Burkina Faso's parliament reinstated the death penalty for serious crimes, including terrorism and treason, amid ongoing pressure from the JNIM in the North and East. This decision reflects the government's strategy to assert control over the insurgency while potentially discouraging civilian cooperation. The political landscape is marked by the suppression of dissent and the consolidation of military power, paralleling trends in the Sahel region.

Marie DuboisSat Oct 24 2026Loading...

On October 21, 2026, Niger's Defense Minister signed a military cooperation agreement with Algeria, which included the deployment of four Algerian fighter jets to Niamey. This move aims to bolster the regime of Abdourahamane Tiani amid ongoing security threats from jihadist groups. The agreement signifies Algeria's strategic interest in the Sahel region and its commitment to supporting Niger's military capabilities.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 23 2026Loading...

ECOWAS and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) agreed to negotiate formal cooperation to combat jihadist threats in the Sahel region. Ghana's President Mahama emphasized the need for collaboration against terrorism, welcoming external partners like Russia. The political shift follows Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger's exit from ECOWAS amid ongoing jihadist activities that exploit regional instability. The negotiations aim to enhance military communication and operational coordination.

Marie DuboisThu Oct 22 2026Loading...

Representatives from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) and the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) met in Dakar on October 17, 2026, to establish joint working groups aimed at improving cooperation. This marks the first structured contact since the breakdown in relations following the Niger coup in July 2023. The discussions focus on creating a framework for cooperation, with an emphasis on enhancing communication and coordination against security threats in the region.

Marie DuboisSun Oct 18 2026Loading...

Chad and France renewed military cooperation on October 14, 2026, focusing on training and technology. Boko Haram is testing this new defense pact, with French officers assisting Chad's national intelligence agency and surveillance aircraft operating around Lake Chad. This cooperation follows a two-year hiatus in military relations.

Marie DuboisFri Oct 16 2026Loading...

France and Chad announced renewed military cooperation in October 2026, focusing on intelligence sharing and surveillance operations against Boko Haram. This partnership aims to enhance Chad's military capabilities while avoiding dependency on French forces. The cooperation follows the withdrawal of French troops in January 2025 and addresses security challenges in the Lake Chad region.

Marie DuboisWed Oct 14 2026Loading...

Joseph Kabila announced the formation of the Front for the Refoundation of the Nation (FRN) in Goma on October 13, 2026, creating a political-military coalition with the M23-AFC. This coalition aims to end tyranny in the Democratic Republic of the Congo by any means necessary, including military force. The M23-AFC controls key regions in North and South Kivu, complicating ongoing peace negotiations and increasing the potential for military escalation in the area.

Marie DuboisWed Oct 14 2026Loading...

Joseph Kabila was appointed as the leader of a new rebel coalition in the Democratic Republic of the Congo on October 13, 2026. This development may shift the conflict dynamics, as the M23 continues to exert control in North and South Kivu. Kabila's involvement could transform the insurrection into a broader political-military initiative, complicating the situation for the Congolese government and regional stability.

Marie DuboisTue Oct 13 2026Loading...