Analysis & Reports

In 2026, armed groups, particularly Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP), increased incursions across the Nigeria-Sahel border, notably in Katsina, Sokoto, and Kebbi. The relationship between Nigeria and the Sahel States Alliance (AES) has deteriorated, complicating military coordination. The region has seen a rise in terrorist incidents, with a notable increase in violence and operational challenges for local forces.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 25 2026Loading...

A presumed mutiny was thwarted by military authorities in Niger on September 20, 2026, with Burkina Faso publicly supporting the junta. The incident highlights internal crises affecting the Alliance of Sahel States, raising concerns about military cohesion and operational vulnerabilities in the region. The junta faces the challenge of maintaining state stability while managing internal trust issues among military officers.

Marie DuboisMon Sep 21 2026Loading...

Mutineers targeted the presidency, airport, and national television in Niamey on the night of August 28-29, 2026, leading to a government acknowledgment of a destabilization attempt. The Nigerien Armed Forces arrested dozens to hundreds of military personnel involved in the mutiny, which has raised concerns about the loyalty of units tasked with regime protection. Civilian casualties were also reported during the incident.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 19 2026Loading...

ISWAP deployed 100 fighters to Ménaka, Mali, and 50 fighters to Nasarawa, Nigeria, in 2026. This movement reflects organized mobility between conflict zones, with Ménaka serving as a strategic location near the Mali-Niger border. The deployment aims to reinforce ISWAP's presence and adapt to military pressures in the region.

Marie DuboisThu Sep 17 2026Loading...

JNIM and the Islamic State are conducting a significant increase in jihadist attacks across the Sahel, with over 2,145 events reported in 2026, projected to exceed 3,000 by year-end. The operational focus has shifted from capturing capitals to controlling movement between cities, with notable attacks in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. The end of French military operations has left a security gap that jihadist groups are exploiting.

Marie DuboisWed Sep 16 2026Loading...

On August 29, 2026, Nigerien soldiers attempted a mutiny in Niamey, attacking Air Base 101 and the presidential palace, resulting in 27 deaths and around 100 arrests. Russian forces intervened to help regain control of the airport, highlighting Niger's reliance on foreign military support amid ongoing instability. The incident reflects significant fractures within Niger's defense architecture following the withdrawal of Western forces.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 15 2026Loading...

Niger replaced its military chief on September 11, 2026, following a mutiny in Niamey. General Abdourahamane Tiani appointed Brigadier General Mamane Sani Kiaou as the new chief of staff, succeeding General Moussa Salaou Barmou. The mutiny involved attacks on sensitive sites by discontented soldiers, with Russian paramilitary support aiding loyalist forces in regaining control. This leadership change aims to stabilize the military amid ongoing jihadist threats and internal tensions.

Marie DuboisSat Sep 12 2026Loading...

On August 26, 2026, six Chinese J-16 fighters participated in military exercises with Egyptian Rafale fighters in Egypt, showcasing China's long-range operational capabilities. The J-16s, having traveled over 6,000 km from China, were supported by YY-20A tankers and other aircraft. This exercise is part of China's strategy to enhance military cooperation and test logistics in Africa, marking a significant shift in the region's strategic balance.

Marie DuboisTue Sep 08 2026Loading...

Nigerien Special Forces occupied Base 101 in Niamey on the night of August 28-29, 2026, with significant fighting and arrests occurring. The occupation was supported by the Russian Africa Corps, highlighting the junta's reliance on foreign assistance amid internal military fractures. The base, crucial for military operations, symbolizes the shifting dynamics of power in Niger following the 2023 coup.

Marie DuboisFri Sep 04 2026Loading...

On August 29, 2023, a mutiny occurred in Niamey, targeting sensitive military sites and attempting to breach security around the presidency. This incident exposed weaknesses in the regime of General Abdourahamane Tchiani, raising concerns about the stability of the Nigerien military. The government urged the population to remain calm following the unrest, which highlights internal challenges within the armed forces.

Marie DuboisSun Aug 30 2026Loading...

Gunfire and explosions occurred around Diori Hamani Airport and Base 101 in Niamey on August 29, 2026, indicating an attack on the Nigerien military. The Nigerien Defense Ministry described the incident as a mutiny attempt, revealing vulnerabilities in the regime's control. This situation raises concerns about internal dissent and the effectiveness of the military's security measures in the capital.

Marie DuboisSat Aug 29 2026Loading...

On August 24, 2026, a presidential decree in Guinea removed 173 military personnel from service for alleged desertion, impacting the gendarmerie and special forces. This action is perceived as a political purge aimed at consolidating power and addressing internal military tensions. The decree follows a period of political instability and reflects the leadership's need to assert control over the armed forces.

Marie DuboisThu Aug 27 2026Loading...

French troops are returning to Chad, with approximately 600 soldiers already in N'Djamena as of 2026. This marks a significant shift in military cooperation after a period of withdrawal that began in 2024. The return is driven by Chad's need for intelligence and surveillance capabilities amid regional security threats.

Marie DuboisThu Aug 20 2026Loading...

ISWAP is actively conducting military operations in Nigeria, with an estimated 8,000 to 12,000 fighters involved. The group is recruiting from local militias like Lakurawa and coordinating with other jihadist factions. Recent reports indicate a significant increase in ISWAP's activities, surpassing historical ISIS affiliates in Iraq and Syria. The situation is exacerbated by the ongoing jihadist pressure from groups like EIGS, affecting regional stability.

Marie DuboisWed Aug 12 2026Loading...

JNIM launched coordinated attacks on military positions in Gao, Anefis, Aguelhok, and Sévaré in July 2026, creating pressure on the Malian military. Concurrently, the U.S. administration is exploring military options against JNIM, despite Mali's denial of any U.S. intervention. The attacks highlight the strategic challenges faced by Malian forces as they manage multiple threats.

Marie DuboisSun Jul 26 2026Loading...

In July 2026, the Nigerian Armed Forces mobilized 28,000 recruits in response to ongoing security challenges, including the recent kidnapping of over 40 individuals in Zamfara. The attacks are linked to Kachalla Sa'idu's gang, highlighting the escalating violence in the region. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu announced the expansion of the military to address these threats.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 24 2026Loading...

On July 5, 2026, the Malian army reported killing over 20 attackers during coordinated assaults on military camps in Gao and Sévaré, and a prison near Kenioroba. The Front for the Liberation of Azawad (FLA) and the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) executed these attacks, testing the security of Bamako. The operations indicate a strategic effort to stretch Malian military resources across multiple fronts.

Marie DuboisTue Jul 07 2026Loading...

Egypt inaugurated the Octagon, a strategic military headquarters, on July 4, 2023, in the New Administrative Capital. The complex spans 22,000 acres and aims to centralize military command and crisis management to address regional threats. It is designed to improve data sharing and operational efficiency for the Egyptian Armed Forces.

Marie DuboisMon Jul 06 2026Loading...

The Africa Corps trained 20 Malian paratroopers at Bamako's Modibo Keïta International Airport on July 4, 2026, using D-6 parachutes and a Mi-8AMTSh helicopter. This training highlights the operational mobility challenges faced by the Malian Armed Forces, which have limited resources. The 33rd Parachute Regiment, the only airborne unit in Mali, symbolizes a shift in military cooperation from France to Russia.

Marie DuboisSun Jul 05 2026Loading...

U.S. Africa Command is withdrawing approximately 200 troops from Nigeria by 2026, while Nigeria seeks to establish a tri-border military sector with Benin and Niger. The withdrawal does not signify a complete abandonment, as the U.S. continues to support Nigeria through intelligence sharing. The Nigerian military aims to close gaps exploited by jihadist groups, particularly in the context of ongoing operations against ISWAP.

Marie DuboisFri Jul 03 2026Loading...