Analysis & Reports

Italy announced it will send warships to protect its commercial vessels through Bab el-Mandeb on September 18, 2026, while South Korea reiterated it will not send combat troops to the Strait of Hormuz. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb are testing the Gulf's ability to protect its exports. Saudi Arabia is resorting to ship-to-ship transfers to move oil due to threats from Houthi attacks.

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Algeria and Mali resumed diplomatic dialogue on September 15, 2026, signaling a thaw in relations after months of tension. The two nations aim to enhance cooperation on security issues in the Sahel, recognizing the need for joint efforts to address instability. Algeria's strategic position and local connections may facilitate this cooperation, although the effectiveness will depend on involving local actors in the process.

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Morocco is planning to acquire additional Israeli-made defense systems, enhancing its military capabilities. This move reflects a growing defense cooperation between Morocco and Israel, as reported by credible Israeli sources.

Egypt is increasing its Rafale fleet with a new order for 30 aircraft, bringing the total to 78. The Egyptian Air Force (EAF) has already received eight of these aircraft, with deliveries continuing over the next two years. The deal includes advanced weaponry and reflects Egypt's strategy to replace its aging F-16 fleet. A training agreement with Dassault is also established to support the Rafale operations.

Houthi forces attacked a Saudi military base using drones and missiles and captured Perlin Island on November 11, escalating the conflict in Yemen. The U.S. is facing a dilemma as Saudi Arabia seeks military support while the Houthis threaten international shipping in the Mandeb Strait. U.S. President Trump confirmed discussions with Saudi officials regarding the situation.

Venâncio Mondlane faces treason charges in Mozambique, linked to post-election violence in November 2024 that resulted in over 300 deaths. The Mozambican government is accused of using these charges to suppress political opposition ahead of upcoming elections. Meanwhile, the insurgency in Cabo Delgado continues to displace nearly one million people, complicating the security landscape as the government struggles to maintain control in the region.

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WACCE issued an alert regarding the jihadist threat from Burkina Faso to Ghana on September 11, 2026. The report indicates that while there are no confirmed jihadist cells in Ghana, the conditions for their spread are present due to ongoing violence in Burkina Faso and population displacement. It emphasizes the need for local cooperation and intelligence to prevent potential infiltration along the northern border.

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Houthi forces intensified their offensive against the Yemeni government, capturing around 5,400 square kilometers of territory and reaching the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait by September 11. This escalation has raised international concerns regarding maritime security in the Red Sea, particularly affecting trade routes vital to Djibouti and Ethiopia. The situation poses significant risks to regional stability and economic activities dependent on these maritime routes.

Algeria deployed four Su-30 aircraft to Niamey, Niger, on August 30, 2026, in response to a mutiny by soldiers. This deployment, framed as military support for Niger, marks a significant shift in Algeria's military policy, allowing for intervention under certain conditions. The move is part of a broader strategic partnership, including energy cooperation, between Algeria and Niger.

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Houthi forces advanced to Pylin Island, controlling nearby coastal areas on September 11, 2023. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested U.S. military action against the Houthis, which was denied, with the U.S. offering intelligence support instead. This escalation raises concerns about the security of maritime routes in the region and the potential for increased U.S.-Iran tensions.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman requested military assistance from U.S. President Donald Trump to combat the Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. The U.S. responded by offering intelligence sharing rather than direct military action. U.S. Central Command's Adm. Brad Cooper visited Saudi Arabia for discussions amid escalating Houthi threats in the Red Sea.

Algeria has received two Su-57 Felon aircraft from Russia, with a total order of approximately fourteen. The Su-57 is marketed as a fifth-generation stealth fighter, but its radar cross-section is significantly larger than that of the F-35A, raising questions about its stealth capabilities. Russia claims to have additional export contracts, but details remain undisclosed.

The U.S. delivered military equipment to Nigeria in September 2026 while simultaneously reducing its troop presence. This shift aims to enhance the capabilities of the Nigerian Armed Forces against jihadist threats, particularly in the Lake Chad Basin. The U.S. strategy emphasizes local partnerships and operational support rather than direct military engagement, reflecting a broader reconfiguration of its military presence in West Africa.

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The People's Liberation Army (PLA) is actively participating in various international military exercises across Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Europe, and Africa, focusing on humanitarian operations and defense cooperation. The report emphasizes China's commitment to a defensive military policy and criticizes Western narratives that misinterpret these activities as military threats. It asserts that the PLA's engagements are aimed at enhancing mutual trust and regional stability.

Houthi forces assert that international shipping through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains safe and is not threatened by their military operations. The spokesperson stated that their actions are defensive and aimed at specific targets, while also calling for peaceful relations based on mutual respect. This follows a series of attacks on Saudi oil tankers and energy facilities since July 20, 2023.

Alexander the Great, undefeated in battle, led the Macedonian Army to conquer regions including Asia Minor, Syria, Egypt, Babylonia, and Persia by the age of 30. His leadership style, as encapsulated in his famous quote about lions and sheep, highlights the importance of effective leadership in military success. He died at 32, shortly after which his empire fell into chaos among his generals.

Terrorist groups, including ISIS and Boko Haram, are increasingly using AI to enhance their operational capabilities and improve the effectiveness of conventional attacks. Notable incidents include the use of ChatGPT in the January 2025 Las Vegas bombing and AI-assisted planning by Boko Haram. The report highlights the growing threat posed by AI-enabled terrorism, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address these risks.

EDGE Group delivered six HT 100 NAVAL unmanned helicopters to the Angolan navy in 2023 as part of a €1 billion defense deal. The helicopters, equipped with EO/IR sensors, will be integrated with BR71 MK II corvettes to enhance maritime surveillance. This delivery follows successful Factory Acceptance Trials conducted in Switzerland.

Nigeria has been negotiating a three-month ceasefire with Boko Haram since June 2023, following the release of 360 civilians. The ceasefire, which may be extended, is focused on communities near Ngoshe in Borno. However, ISWAP, a rival group, is not part of this agreement, raising concerns about the potential for increased violence. Previous ceasefire attempts have collapsed, indicating uncertainty about the effectiveness of this arrangement.

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HAVELSAN and the Arab Organization for Industrialization (AOI) signed a sales agreement for the HAMZA-1 UAV at the El Alamein International Airshow from September 8 to 10, 2026. This agreement marks a transition from joint production to commercial sales, with deliveries expected soon. The HAMZA-1 UAV combines HAVELSAN's technological expertise with AOI's local manufacturing capabilities, reflecting the growing defense cooperation between Türkiye and Egypt.