Analysis & Reports

Canada will receive its first 16 F-35A fighter jets at Luke Air Force Base in 2026, with full delivery to Canada expected by 2028. Saab is proposing to manufacture Gripen E fighters in Canada, while the UK funds Gripen deliveries to Ukraine. The Canadian CF-18 fleet is set for retirement by 2032, prompting discussions on military procurement options.

The U.S. Navy retired four Ticonderoga-class cruisers, USS Hue City, USS Anzio, USS Cowpens, and USS Vicksburg, after spending $1.84 billion on modernization efforts that ultimately failed. This retirement results in a significant loss of Tomahawk missile launch capacity, as these cruisers were equipped with 122 Mk 41 launch cells each. The Navy's ongoing challenges with aging vessels and modernization have led to a decrease in available missile capacity at a critical time for long-range strike capabilities.

Chinese researchers at the China Aerodynamics Research and Development Center claim to have identified vulnerabilities in the U.S. Air Force's B-21 Raider through simulations using the PADJ-X modeling platform. They suggest potential improvements in the aircraft's design, although these findings are based on estimates without direct access to the aircraft. The U.S. Air Force is moving forward with preparations for the B-21's operational deployment at Ellsworth Air Force Base in South Dakota.

Saab is proposing that Canada order 40 JAS 39 Gripen fighters to support local assembly, framing it as a choice for a sovereign aerospace industry. The Canadian government is reviewing its planned purchase of 88 F-35s and considering a mixed fleet of aircraft. Saab has been selected as the preferred supplier for airborne early-warning capabilities, and discussions are ongoing regarding the GlobalEye surveillance aircraft.

LeoLabs is shifting its marketing strategy to sell the Scout-S mobile space radar directly to governments, responding to increased demand from US allies for military space capabilities. The company is currently in discussions with over a dozen allied nations interested in purchasing the radar, which can track multiple space objects in low Earth orbit. The Scout-S radar debuted during the recent Valiant Shield exercise and is expected to be produced in increasing quantities next year.

The Chengdu J-20 is designed for long-range BVR combat, primarily targeting AWACS and aerial refuelers while also capable of limited air-to-ground missions against U.S. bases in the Pacific. It is not a direct competitor to the F-22 Raptor but serves a different strategic role. The J-20 has a longer combat range than the F-22, although its stealth capabilities are considered inferior.

Pratt & Whitney announced that the F-35 engine upgrade has successfully passed a crucial design review, allowing the program to advance to testing phases. Ground testing is set to commence in 2027, followed by flight testing around 2030, with production expected to start in 2031. The upgrade aims to enhance engine performance and reduce maintenance costs, benefiting all variants of the F-35.

The U.S. military has utilized a significant portion of its missile defense interceptors in ongoing operations against Iran, which may hinder its ability to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. The Congressional Budget Office warns that the depletion of these interceptors could take years to recover, with costs to replace them estimated at $21.7 billion. The report highlights the strategic implications of this depletion for U.S. defense capabilities in the Indo-Pacific region.

The U.S. Air Force is modernizing its aerial refueling tanker fleet, focusing on the KC-135 Stratotanker and KC-46A Pegasus. This ongoing recapitalization aims to enhance mission capability and ensure the joint force's success. Officials emphasize the importance of connectivity and industry partnerships to expedite the delivery of capabilities. The modernization efforts will continue for decades, supporting both legacy and new platforms.

Anduril Industries is unable to commence production of FQ-44 Fury drones until the FY27 budget is approved by Congress, expected by December 2023. The company is currently building prototypes and integrating munitions at its Arsenal-1 facility in Columbus, Ohio. The U.S. Air Force anticipates having 500 Collaborative Combat Aircraft in service by 2032, with ongoing tests and integration efforts underway at Creech Air Force Base in Nevada.

USS Georgia retired at Naval Submarine Base Kings Bay on July 27, 2024, marking the beginning of the retirement process for the U.S. Navy's Ohio-class submarines. These submarines, capable of carrying 154 Tomahawk missiles each, represent a significant loss of missile launch positions, totaling 616 across four vessels. The Navy plans to redesignate 19 Virginia-class submarines to partially compensate for this loss, but no direct replacements for the Ohio-class SSGNs are planned.

The U.S. Department of Defense has incurred approximately $38 billion in costs for combat operations in Iran as of August 1, 2023, with ongoing monthly expenses projected at $2-3 billion. Significant expenditures include $21.7 billion for replacing munitions, with a notable depletion of interceptor inventory. The report highlights the financial strain on military resources and the potential implications for future conflicts.

The U.S. military incurred approximately $38 billion in costs from combat operations against Iran through August 1, 2025, depleting a significant portion of its missile-defense interceptors. The conflict has consumed between one-half and two-thirds of the inventory of systems like Patriot and THAAD, with rebuilding efforts expected to take at least five years. The campaign involved extensive use of munitions, particularly during the initial phases of Operation Epic Fury, which included around 250 tactical aircraft.

The 34th International Defence Industry Exhibition (MSPO) occurred in Kielce, Poland, from 8 to 11 September 2026, featuring over 1,200 exhibitors and 40,000 visitors. Canada served as the Lead Nation, showcasing its defense capabilities and fostering partnerships with Poland and other NATO allies. The event highlighted Poland's strategic importance in European defense procurement and modernization efforts.

Twenty-Six Defense, a division of Elbit America, is engaged in building and upgrading weapons systems to enhance situational awareness and enable longer-range attacks. This development aims to address the challenges posed by modern warfare.

Japan is developing quantum sensors to be mounted on inexpensive drones for surveillance of Chinese submarine transit routes in the Pacific Ocean. The Defense Ministry aims to have this technology ready by fiscal 2031. Meanwhile, China is also enhancing its anti-submarine capabilities with new drone technologies and vessels.

Iranian forces shot down three U.S. MQ-1 drones over the Strait of Hormuz on September 15. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reported that these interceptions were part of coordinated operations under Iran's national air defense network. The U.S. has yet to respond to these incidents.

The U.S. government plans to sell $2.8 billion worth of military arms to Israel, including 20,000 MK-84 bombs and 20,000 BLU-117 bombs. This arms sale has been informally communicated to relevant congressional committees. Israel has been using these powerful bombs in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, leading to serious casualties and drawing attention from human rights experts.

The U.S. Air Force's F-35 Lightning II performed effectively in the Iran War due to prioritized logistics and spare parts support. Despite previous readiness issues, the aircraft's operational tempo increased significantly. However, concerns remain about the sustainability of this support given the fleet's size and logistical challenges.

The U.S. Air Force confirmed the existence of space control weapons capable of offensive operations during a meeting in Maryland on October 14, 2023. This acknowledgment marks the first time the U.S. has recognized its offensive capabilities in space, raising concerns about a potential arms race. Experts warn that this development could lead to increased military tensions and conflict in outer space.