Analysis & Reports

Russian forces maintain control over Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, employing drones and artillery to suppress Ukrainian positions and logistics. A 25-kilometer kill zone has been established, complicating Ukrainian operations. The report highlights the effective coordination of Russian infantry, drones, and artillery, indicating a shift in tactics. Logistical challenges are significant for both sides, particularly affecting Ukrainian capabilities.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 19 2026Loading...

In 2026, the Russian military faces significant economic challenges as 400 oil wells have been closed, leading to a 10% reduction in oil processing. This decline is contributing to a federal budget deficit nearing $80 billion and labor shortages impacting military production. Ukrainian strikes on oil infrastructure are altering the cost dynamics of the ongoing conflict, indicating that the sustainability of the Russian military economy is under pressure.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 19 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted airstrikes on the Angstrom plant in Zelenograd on May 16-17, 2023, targeting critical microelectronics production for precision weapons. This operation reflects a strategic shift towards disrupting Russian military logistics and industrial capabilities. Russian defense officials reported intercepting numerous drones, but the effectiveness of the strikes on high-value targets remains significant.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 18 2026Loading...

Ukraine launched a large-scale retaliatory strike campaign overnight into May 15, targeting Russian military and industrial infrastructure across multiple regions. Key strikes included the Ryazan oil refinery, resulting in casualties, and attacks on military assets such as aircraft and air defense systems in Crimea and Luhansk Oblast. This operation aimed to disrupt Russian military capabilities and logistics.

The Russian Airborne Forces established multiple drone repair battalions responsible for maintaining UAVs and ground robotic systems. These units operate near the frontline to facilitate rapid repairs and return of equipment to combat. Each battalion includes specialized teams for fixed-wing drones, multi-rotor drones, and ground robotic systems, and they also handle the repair of captured enemy drones for reuse.

Russian forces conducted 150 assaults and over 100 artillery shelling incidents during a ceasefire from May 9-11, 2026, revealing a significant military operation despite diplomatic efforts. The Russian military's territorial losses and reliance on infiltration tactics indicate a decline in offensive capabilities. Concurrently, Germany strengthened defense ties with Ukraine, signaling a shift in European military support. The overall strategic situation increasingly favors the defender, with Russia's operational challenges becoming more pronounced.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 12 2026Loading...

Russia has dispatched upgraded T-90M, T-80BVM, and T-72B3M tanks to its armed forces, incorporating combat lessons and feedback from frontline troops. The delivery, announced by Rostec, highlights ongoing production despite Western sanctions and includes significant upgrades to electronic warfare protection and armor. This shipment reflects the current state of Russian armored forces and their adaptation to battlefield challenges.

Ukrainian forces conducted significant long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure in May 2026, targeting key facilities such as the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery and the VNIIR-Progress plant. These actions exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's air defense systems, prompting airport closures across fifteen cities. The strikes reflect a strategic shift in the conflict, with Ukraine demonstrating the capability to reach deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 08 2026Loading...

Russia claims to have doubled its combat aircraft production, delivering 30 new tactical aircraft to its Aerospace Forces in 2025. However, independent analysis indicates that production targets were not met, with only half of the expected 57 aircraft delivered. The report highlights significant losses of 65 aircraft in the ongoing conflict, resulting in a net reduction of 35 aircraft for the year. Despite claims of industrial resilience, the actual output does not keep pace with attrition rates.

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil facility in Yaroslavl Oblast on the 8th, aiming to disrupt funding for the Russian military. This action was described as a response to ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions, with over 140 artillery strikes reported on the same day. Zelensky emphasized that Russia showed no signs of a ceasefire despite previous announcements.

Russia declared a ceasefire from May 8-9, threatening missile strikes on Kyiv if disrupted. Ukraine reported over 1,800 violations of its ceasefire, leading to civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces escalated deep strikes on Russian oil refineries, while NATO conducted military exercises in response to the heightened tensions. Russia launched a record 409 drones in a single wave against Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovThu May 07 2026Loading...

Ukraine has intensified its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, particularly targeting the Tuapse refinery in Krasnodar, from April to May 2023. This campaign aims to disrupt Russian oil revenue amidst rising global prices linked to the Iran war. Ukrainian drone operations have expanded, hitting multiple facilities, while Russian forces continue their own offensive operations against Ukraine.

On May 3, 2026, Ukraine executed a significant drone offensive against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure in Primorsk. In response, Russia launched a counter-offensive with drones and missiles. The conflict has intensified, with both sides engaging in unprecedented aerial exchanges, while Ukraine's strikes aim to degrade Russia's economic capacity. Diplomatic tensions escalated with Russia proposing a ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed, leading to further military actions.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

In April 2026, Russian forces lost approximately 116 square kilometers of territory, marking a significant setback. Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems conducted deep strikes on the Shagol airfield, damaging multiple Russian aircraft. Concurrently, Ukraine intensified its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, striking the Tuapse refinery multiple times. President Zelensky announced a reform of Ukraine's armed forces, set to begin in June 2026, aimed at improving military effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

On May 5, 2023, Ukraine executed deep-strike operations, launching Flamingo cruise missiles into Russian territory, targeting the JSC VNIIR-Progress facility in Cheboksary and the Kirishi oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast. The strikes represent a significant escalation in Ukraine's military capabilities, with Russia responding with missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian territory, resulting in civilian casualties. Concurrently, Ukraine proposed a ceasefire to commence on May 6, challenging Russia's response.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 05 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones struck a residential building in Moscow on May 4, 2026, marking a significant escalation in Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian naval assets in the Gulf of Finland and conducted multiple drone strikes on oil refineries and military installations. NATO's Exercise Sword 26, involving 15,500 participants, aims to validate combat readiness across the eastern flank. These developments reflect a shifting strategic landscape in the ongoing conflict.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 04 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces executed a series of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, including the Tuapse oil refinery and tankers near Novorossiysk, from May 1 to 3, 2026. The attacks aimed to degrade Russia's oil export capabilities and were part of a broader deep-strike campaign. Concurrently, ground combat intensified along the eastern front, with significant engagements reported. Ukrainian drones also damaged Russian fighter jets at Shagol airfield, highlighting the expanding operational reach of Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 03 2026Loading...

Ukraine intensified its long-range strike campaign against Russian strategic infrastructure in May 2026, targeting facilities like the Tuapse Oil Refinery and Shagol Airfield. These operations demonstrate Ukraine's growing drone warfare capabilities and strategic reach. Concurrently, President Zelensky announced major military reforms to enhance personnel retention and institutional professionalism. However, delays in U.S. weapons deliveries pose challenges to Ukraine's military efforts as Russia adapts and continues its attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 02 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces launched drone strikes on the Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, on 1 May, marking the fourth attack in two weeks. The strikes reignited fires at the facility, which had previously been extinguished, and are part of a campaign to degrade Russia's oil production capacity. This campaign aims to disrupt military logistics and reduce state revenue from oil.

Russia has developed and deployed hundreds of ground robotic systems in combat against Ukraine, with significant production scaling since 2022. The Kuryer, Varan, and Impulse-M are among the confirmed models actively used. As of April 2026, these systems are not under Western sanctions, highlighting a growing capability in unmanned warfare.