Analysis & Reports

Turkey is positioning itself as a defense exporter while seeking advanced Western platforms. This strategy is part of its broader military and defense policy for the years 2026 to 2035, focusing on enhancing its defense capabilities and market presence.

Donald Trump was smuggled off a tarmac in Ankara on July 8 in a catering truck to evade a missile threat, while a decoy aircraft carried his cabinet and journalists. U.S. intelligence confirmed a credible Iranian plot to target Air Force One, leading to the improvised escape plan. The operation raised concerns about the safety of those on the decoy flight, as they were unaware of the risk they faced.

Alexandra ReevesWed Aug 12 2026Loading...

President Trump secretly switched planes in Turkey last month due to an Iranian assassination threat, transferring from Air Force One to a military aircraft via a catering truck. This operation, directed by the Secret Service, involved several aides and remained undisclosed until reported by The Washington Post. Trump stated that the plane he ultimately used was more vulnerable than Air Force One, raising concerns about the safety of those traveling with him.

Iran sought to negotiate a deal for T-90 tanks from Russia between 2015 and 2016, but the contract was never finalized due to demands for technology transfer and UN sanctions. The Iranian Army aimed to upgrade its armored capabilities, particularly its T-72 and M60 tanks, but ultimately promoted the domestically produced Karrar tank as an alternative. The negotiations were part of a broader $10 billion military package that included various equipment.

Iran signed a $2.2 billion deal for military equipment, receiving 422 T-72S tanks and 413 BMP-2 armored vehicles from Russia between 1993 and 2000. The acquisition was only partially fulfilled due to U.S. pressure on Russian arms transfers. The T-72S tanks remain a key component of Iran's armored forces, especially following the Iran-Iraq War.

Iran is pursuing the acquisition of Su-35 fighter jets from Russia to enhance its air capabilities against US military aircraft. While the exact number of aircraft remains unclear, reports suggest Iran may acquire between 24 and 50 jets. The acquisition could significantly improve Iran's air force, which currently relies on outdated models, but operational challenges persist due to a lack of combat experience and support infrastructure.

Iran is pursuing the acquisition of Su-35 fighter jets from Russia to enhance its air capabilities against U.S. military aircraft. Speculation suggests that Iranian pilots have trained on these jets, with potential delivery in 2023. The number of aircraft Iran may acquire is uncertain, ranging from 24 to 50. This acquisition could significantly alter the military balance in the region, although the Su-35's lack of stealth capabilities limits its effectiveness against advanced U.S. fighters.

On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed the Mecca Agreement for mutual defense in Mecca, Saudi Arabia. The agreement stipulates that any armed attack on one of the nations will be regarded as an attack on all three. This development reflects a significant shift in regional security dynamics, with each country contributing unique military capabilities and resources to enhance collective defense.

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U.S. military preparations for a potential invasion of Kharg Island are ongoing, with President Trump considering military options amid stalled negotiations with Iran. Central Command has previously struck military targets on the island, and Iran has reinforced its defenses. Capturing Kharg would significantly impact Iran's oil exports, but logistical challenges remain for U.S. forces.

Iran is negotiating with Oman over the Strait of Hormuz, demanding the U.S. Navy end its blockade and withdraw forces from the Middle East. Traffic in the strait has dropped significantly, with the U.S. redirecting 55 commercial vessels away from Iranian ports. Trump has indicated that the U.S. will seek compensation from Iran for damages caused by its actions. The recent appointment of Mohsen Rezaei as secretary of the Supreme National Security Council may lead to a more aggressive stance from Iran in these negotiations.

China has supplied military technology and weapons to Iran since the 1980s, significantly enhancing Iran's coastal missile capabilities. This includes the provision of HY-2 Silkworm anti-ship missiles and technology for the Noor missile. Iran has developed a robust missile program, enabling it to create an anti-access environment in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, complicating U.S. military operations in the region.

Iran and North Korea have established a cooperative missile relationship since the 1980s, involving technology exchange and joint development of missile systems. This partnership has evolved from simple transactions to a more symbiotic relationship, with Iran developing its own missile capabilities while benefiting from North Korean technology. The Shahab-3 missile, derived from North Korea's Nodong, exemplifies this cooperation, enhancing Iran's military capabilities significantly.

Iran has developed a military playbook that China is likely to emulate to counter the US Air Force and Navy. The ongoing US-Iran conflict of 2026 has highlighted the limitations of US military power, particularly in air operations. This situation raises concerns about US capabilities in a potential conflict with China, which could leverage similar strategies to those used by Iran.

Iran appointed Mohsen Rezaei as the new secretary of the Supreme National Security Council on Sunday night, amid escalating tensions over the Strait of Hormuz. This leadership change reflects internal divisions within Iran regarding its approach to negotiations with the U.S. and control over the strait. Rezaei, a hardliner and former Revolutionary Guards commander, replaces Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr, who faced political repercussions after making extensive demands for reopening the strait.

Around 6,000 civilian sailors remain trapped in the Persian Gulf due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz and military actions against commercial vessels. Since the conflict began on February 28, 2023, many crews have faced shortages and psychological distress. Despite some evacuation attempts, the situation for these sailors remains dire and unresolved.

Elbit Systems reported a record $32 billion order backlog and $2.3 billion in revenue for the second quarter of 2026, driven by increased demand for advanced defense technologies amid ongoing Middle East conflicts. The company is developing high-power laser systems for military use and has secured significant contracts for tank upgrades and U.S. border security. The geopolitical situation has affected Elbit's operations, highlighting the intertwined nature of defense procurement and regional instability.

Iran appointed six new military leaders on August 10, 2023, as part of a restructuring of its military leadership amid ongoing negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz. This move follows significant military losses and aims to strengthen command during a critical period. Key figures include Ahmad Vahidi as the new commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Ali Abdollahi as the chief of staff of the armed forces. The changes reflect Iran's strategy to solidify its military structure in the face of external pressures.

Ahmed Al-RashidTue Aug 11 2026Loading...

Iran has issued a list of demands to the U.S. for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, including the withdrawal of the naval blockade and lifting of sanctions. The U.S. is under political pressure to end the conflict while maintaining a narrative of victory. Iran's demands are seen as a strategy to leverage the U.S. administration's desire to conclude the war, amidst rising domestic challenges in both countries.

U.S. President Trump is leveraging economic pressure against Iran, allowing the Iranian regime to determine the war's conclusion while maintaining military readiness. The U.S. Armed Forces, including A-10 Thunderbolt II and F-15EX Eagle II aircraft, are positioned to respond as needed. Iran faces significant economic challenges and diminishing strategic relevance in the region.

On July 6, Lockheed Martin, Thales, and Fincantieri announced significant investments in maritime defense capabilities, reflecting a strategic response to increasing threats from China and Russia. Lockheed Martin acquired Ultra Maritime for $3.5 billion, while Thales plans to purchase a stake in Exail Technologies. Fincantieri is investing $700 million in four firms specializing in unmanned maritime systems. These moves highlight the growing importance of undersea warfare capabilities in response to geopolitical challenges.