Analysis & Reports

Israeli airstrikes destroyed a bridge in Tire, Southern Lebanon, on April 16. This bridge was the last connection between Southern Lebanon and the rest of the country.

The Kilo-class submarine, a diesel-electric attack submarine of the Russian Navy, is recognized for its stealth capabilities and effectiveness in chokepoint warfare. It operates primarily in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea, and Persian Gulf, posing a significant threat to enemy naval forces. The upgraded Kilo-class submarines are equipped with Kalibr cruise missiles, enhancing their long-range strike capabilities.

Iran preserved the majority of its air force in underground bunkers during the conflict that began on February 28, 2026, with confirmed sightings of aircraft reappearing in Iranian airspace after the ceasefire. The Iranian Air Force and IRGC utilized a network of underground bases to protect their fleet, resulting in the loss of 38 aircraft primarily due to exposure on airfields. The strategy allowed Iran to retain significant air power despite the conflict's intensity.

U.S. military operations in April 2023 against Iranian missile and drone capabilities revealed significant shortcomings in U.S. military readiness. Despite the destruction of some Iranian air capabilities, Iran continues to launch approximately 30 missiles and 70 drones daily. The U.S. has incurred substantial costs, with estimates of $11 billion in the first six days of conflict. U.S. forces have also faced losses, including aircraft, while Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz remain largely unchallenged.

Various advanced weapon systems were utilized during the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict in April 2023, including upgraded Tomahawk missiles and the PrSM precision strike missile. The Israeli Defense Forces deployed the Iron Beam laser defense system for the first time, while Iran used the Fattah-2 hypersonic missile against U.S. targets. The Shahed-136 drone was also employed effectively due to its low cost and reliability.

On April 11, 2023, two U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyers attempted to transit the Strait of Hormuz but were intercepted by Iranian naval forces. The Iranian military had locked onto the destroyers with cruise missiles, forcing them to retreat after receiving warnings. This operation was reportedly aimed at influencing U.S.-Iran negotiations in Islamabad but ended in failure.

The U.S. military is adapting its strategies based on lessons from the Iran conflict and the Ukraine war, focusing on drone warfare and logistics. Thousands of drones have been launched by Iran, prompting the U.S. to enhance its defense capabilities. Ukraine has provided anti-drone tactics to Gulf partners, highlighting the need for collaborative defense efforts. The economic implications of modern warfare, particularly in the Gulf region, are also emphasized.

U.S. Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers conducted long-range strike missions against Iranian targets in March and October 2025, effectively targeting missile infrastructure and command nodes. Deployed to RAF Fairford, these bombers operated with aerial refueling support, exploiting degraded Iranian air defenses. The B-1B's capability to deliver large volumes of precision-guided munitions proved crucial in the conflict, although its effectiveness may be challenged in future engagements with more advanced adversaries like China.

The F-35 Lightning II has been effectively utilized in military operations against Iran, conducting strike missions and electronic warfare without any aircraft losses. However, the program faces significant challenges, including a projected life-cycle cost exceeding $2 trillion and limitations in combat radius. Ongoing modernization efforts aim to address these issues and enhance the aircraft's capabilities.

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that Israeli forces are preparing to occupy and destroy the Hezbollah stronghold in Bint Jbeil. On the same day, five Israeli soldiers were injured by Hezbollah rocket fire. The U.S. is pressuring Israel to agree to a temporary ceasefire while negotiations continue.

U.S. Navy SEAL Team Six is being considered for a potential raid on Iranian nuclear sites, specifically targeting 440 kilograms of enriched uranium. The operation would require extensive planning, air support, and specialized equipment, including protective gear for nuclear threats. Concerns about the feasibility and risks of such a mission have been raised, suggesting it may not be advisable at this time.

The U.S. Navy intercepted an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel on Tuesday as it attempted to evade a maritime blockade initiated on Monday. The USS Spruance redirected the vessel back toward Iran after it fled Bandar Abbas and exited the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade, involving 10,000 troops and numerous warships and aircraft, aims to prevent any vessels from transiting to and from Iranian ports.

The U.S. Navy intercepted an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel attempting to evade a maritime blockade on Tuesday. The USS Spruance redirected the vessel back toward Iran after it fled Bandar Abbas and exited the Strait of Hormuz. This blockade, involving 10,000 troops and numerous warships, began on Monday following failed peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.

The U.S. Navy lost an MQ-4C Triton aircraft in a Class A mishap over the Persian Gulf this month. The cause of the crash is unclear, with no injuries reported. The incident highlights the limited number of MQ-4C aircraft available for operations, as the Navy had only received 20 by last year, with plans to increase the fleet to 27.

Iran maintains a military force of 350,000 ground troops, with 200,000 being conscripts. The Islamic Republic of Iran Ground Forces (IRIGF) is currently assessed in the context of potential U.S. Marine Corps operations. The IRIGF is equipped with various military assets, including M60 tanks and Zulfiqar-3 tanks, as tensions escalate in the region.

The Israeli Defense Forces stopped a UNIFIL convoy transporting peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon on April 14. The convoy was en route to the UNIFIL headquarters when it was halted by physical roadblocks and revoked passage permissions. UNIFIL stated that these actions could weaken their operational capabilities and urged compliance with established arrangements to ensure the safety of peacekeepers.

Iran continues to operate its underground missile cities, producing ballistic missiles and drones despite U.S. airstrikes targeting these facilities. The U.S. has had limited success in degrading Iran's capabilities, as these sites are designed for concealment and resilience. Satellite imagery and independent assessments confirm ongoing production and storage activities within these hardened facilities.

Iran has developed and deployed various drones, including the Shahed-136, which can strike U.S. military sites and targets across the Middle East. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has integrated these drones into their military strategy since the 2010s, enhancing their reconnaissance and strike capabilities. Iran's drone production is prolific, with estimates suggesting several hundred units are produced monthly, complicating efforts to mitigate their impact.

The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN-78) has been deployed for 295 days, conducting integrated air wing operations in the Mediterranean Sea and heading toward CENTCOM AOR. The carrier recently completed repairs in Croatia following a fire incident and is part of U.S. efforts to pressure Iran into a nuclear agreement. The ship carries nearly 4,500 sailors and is actively engaged in military operations.

Iranian military forces are actively attempting to counter the U.S.-Israeli blockade in the Strait of Hormuz using their remaining military assets, including 21 midget submarines and approximately 150 naval mines. The Islamic Republic of Iran Navy (IRIN) and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) are involved in these operations, which include the deployment of various anti-ship missiles. This situation is ongoing and reflects Iran's efforts to maintain its military capabilities despite significant degradation.