Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian forces conducted significant long-range strikes against Russian infrastructure in May 2026, targeting key facilities such as the Kirishinefteorgsintez oil refinery and the VNIIR-Progress plant. These actions exposed vulnerabilities in Russia's air defense systems, prompting airport closures across fifteen cities. The strikes reflect a strategic shift in the conflict, with Ukraine demonstrating the capability to reach deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 08 2026Loading...

Russia claims to have doubled its combat aircraft production, delivering 30 new tactical aircraft to its Aerospace Forces in 2025. However, independent analysis indicates that production targets were not met, with only half of the expected 57 aircraft delivered. The report highlights significant losses of 65 aircraft in the ongoing conflict, resulting in a net reduction of 35 aircraft for the year. Despite claims of industrial resilience, the actual output does not keep pace with attrition rates.

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that Ukrainian forces struck a Russian oil facility in Yaroslavl Oblast on the 8th, aiming to disrupt funding for the Russian military. This action was described as a response to ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian positions, with over 140 artillery strikes reported on the same day. Zelensky emphasized that Russia showed no signs of a ceasefire despite previous announcements.

Russia declared a ceasefire from May 8-9, threatening missile strikes on Kyiv if disrupted. Ukraine reported over 1,800 violations of its ceasefire, leading to civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces escalated deep strikes on Russian oil refineries, while NATO conducted military exercises in response to the heightened tensions. Russia launched a record 409 drones in a single wave against Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovThu May 07 2026Loading...

Ukraine has intensified its strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, particularly targeting the Tuapse refinery in Krasnodar, from April to May 2023. This campaign aims to disrupt Russian oil revenue amidst rising global prices linked to the Iran war. Ukrainian drone operations have expanded, hitting multiple facilities, while Russian forces continue their own offensive operations against Ukraine.

On May 3, 2026, Ukraine executed a significant drone offensive against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure in Primorsk. In response, Russia launched a counter-offensive with drones and missiles. The conflict has intensified, with both sides engaging in unprecedented aerial exchanges, while Ukraine's strikes aim to degrade Russia's economic capacity. Diplomatic tensions escalated with Russia proposing a ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed, leading to further military actions.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

In April 2026, Russian forces lost approximately 116 square kilometers of territory, marking a significant setback. Ukrainian unmanned aerial systems conducted deep strikes on the Shagol airfield, damaging multiple Russian aircraft. Concurrently, Ukraine intensified its campaign against Russian oil infrastructure, striking the Tuapse refinery multiple times. President Zelensky announced a reform of Ukraine's armed forces, set to begin in June 2026, aimed at improving military effectiveness.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

On May 5, 2023, Ukraine executed deep-strike operations, launching Flamingo cruise missiles into Russian territory, targeting the JSC VNIIR-Progress facility in Cheboksary and the Kirishi oil refinery in Leningrad Oblast. The strikes represent a significant escalation in Ukraine's military capabilities, with Russia responding with missile and drone attacks on Ukrainian territory, resulting in civilian casualties. Concurrently, Ukraine proposed a ceasefire to commence on May 6, challenging Russia's response.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 05 2026Loading...

Ukrainian drones struck a residential building in Moscow on May 4, 2026, marking a significant escalation in Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian naval assets in the Gulf of Finland and conducted multiple drone strikes on oil refineries and military installations. NATO's Exercise Sword 26, involving 15,500 participants, aims to validate combat readiness across the eastern flank. These developments reflect a shifting strategic landscape in the ongoing conflict.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 04 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces executed a series of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, including the Tuapse oil refinery and tankers near Novorossiysk, from May 1 to 3, 2026. The attacks aimed to degrade Russia's oil export capabilities and were part of a broader deep-strike campaign. Concurrently, ground combat intensified along the eastern front, with significant engagements reported. Ukrainian drones also damaged Russian fighter jets at Shagol airfield, highlighting the expanding operational reach of Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 03 2026Loading...

Ukraine intensified its long-range strike campaign against Russian strategic infrastructure in May 2026, targeting facilities like the Tuapse Oil Refinery and Shagol Airfield. These operations demonstrate Ukraine's growing drone warfare capabilities and strategic reach. Concurrently, President Zelensky announced major military reforms to enhance personnel retention and institutional professionalism. However, delays in U.S. weapons deliveries pose challenges to Ukraine's military efforts as Russia adapts and continues its attacks on Ukrainian cities.

Dmitri VolkovSat May 02 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces launched drone strikes on the Tuapse oil refinery in Krasnodar Krai, Russia, on 1 May, marking the fourth attack in two weeks. The strikes reignited fires at the facility, which had previously been extinguished, and are part of a campaign to degrade Russia's oil production capacity. This campaign aims to disrupt military logistics and reduce state revenue from oil.

Russia has developed and deployed hundreds of ground robotic systems in combat against Ukraine, with significant production scaling since 2022. The Kuryer, Varan, and Impulse-M are among the confirmed models actively used. As of April 2026, these systems are not under Western sanctions, highlighting a growing capability in unmanned warfare.

European military spending surged to $864 billion in 2025, with Germany and Spain significantly increasing their defense budgets. The EU approved a €90 billion loan package for Ukraine, while Russia allocated $190 billion to military spending. This shift reflects a reorientation of European defense priorities amid ongoing threats from Russia and evolving transatlantic security dynamics.

Alexandra ReevesFri May 01 2026Loading...

Ukraine conducted long-range strikes against Russian military targets from April 28 to 30, 2023, leading to the cancellation of Russia's Victory Day parade. The strikes included attacks on military helicopters in Voronezh Oblast and infrastructure in Perm and Orenburg Oblasts. This escalation reflects Ukraine's evolving strike capabilities and has significant implications for Russian military operations and morale.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 01 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces conducted extensive drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets across multiple regions in late April 2026, significantly impacting Russian operations. On April 28-29, strikes targeted facilities in Perm and Krasnodar Krai, among others, while Russian forces retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. The conflict remains intense, with heavy casualties reported on both sides and ongoing military engagements in various directions.

Dmitri VolkovThu Apr 30 2026Loading...

Russian forces attacked Ukrainian energy and transportation infrastructure, destroying 303 drones and 6 unmanned boats. Ukrainian forces repelled 189 assaults and shot down 1775 Russian drones, while also targeting Russian military facilities in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Crimea.

Ukrainian Armed Forces conducted airstrikes against Russian military and logistics facilities in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Crimea from April 28 to 29. The strikes targeted radar stations, air defense systems, ammunition depots, and fuel depots, indicating a significant escalation in military operations.

On 28 April, Ukraine's drone forces attacked the Tuapse Refinery in Krasnodar Krai, causing extensive damage and fires, with burning oil flowing through nearby streets. This was the third attack in two weeks, leading to the shutdown of the facility, which has significant implications for Russian oil logistics. Eyewitness accounts and satellite imagery confirm the scale of the destruction.

Global military spending reached nearly $2.9 trillion in 2025, continuing an upward trend for the 11th consecutive year. The U.S., China, and Russia accounted for over half of this expenditure, with significant increases noted in Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. Germany's military budget rose by 24%, while Ukraine's increased by 20%, reflecting ongoing conflicts and shifting defense policies. Overall, nations are increasing military investments in response to a deteriorating security environment.