Analysis & Reports

Four individuals involved in the attack on Russian General Alekseev are to be prosecuted for terrorism charges, as announced by the Russian Federal Investigative Committee on February 13. The attack, which occurred on February 6, aimed to intimidate the public and destabilize the government. Alekseev was shot but has since undergone successful surgery and is in stable condition.

By 2026, the Russian Army will transition to coercive recruitment methods due to budget constraints, requiring 25,000 to 40,000 new contract soldiers monthly. Regions such as Buryatia and Tatarstan will likely face increased recruitment pressures, while Moscow and Saint Petersburg remain relatively insulated. The reliance on financial incentives has diminished, leading to a potential second wave of mobilization as military losses continue to rise.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 13 2026Loading...

U.S. allies are increasingly reconsidering their reliance on the American nuclear umbrella as President Trump's foreign policy shifts towards hostility, particularly with threats regarding Greenland. This instability may lead allies in Europe and Asia to pursue their own nuclear deterrents, breaking the longstanding defense-for-nonproliferation bargain. The situation reflects a significant change in international relations and military alliances.

Russia continues to perceive the U.S. as its main global adversary, engaging in talks aimed at exploiting changes in U.S. administration to restore bilateral relations. This strategy may facilitate Russian espionage and influence operations while eroding U.S. international influence. The Estonian intelligence report emphasizes the deepening cooperation between China and Russia, framing the conflict in Ukraine as a civilizational struggle against the West led by Washington.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov criticized the U.S. for attempting to involve China in new nuclear arms control negotiations while excluding the UK and France. He emphasized that Russia respects China's self-defense nuclear strategy. The New START treaty expired on October 5, 2023, leaving the U.S. and Russia without a bilateral arms control framework. U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that nuclear arms control is now a multilateral issue, implicating China as a key player.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that Russia will adhere to the New START treaty's restrictions on nuclear weapons if the United States continues to comply. This statement was made during a speech in Moscow on February 11, 2023. The New START treaty, signed in 2010, aims to limit the number of nuclear warheads and delivery systems between the two nations, with an extension valid until February 2026.

Russian President Putin emphasized the critical role of diplomacy in ensuring national security during a speech on February 10. He stated that Russia will continue to utilize all diplomatic resources to create a favorable external environment for its development. Putin also highlighted the importance of strengthening relationships with CIS countries and promoting a multipolar world order based on international law.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov stated that Russia is willing to seek dialogue to resolve the Ukraine issue during a speech in Moscow on February 10, 2023. He emphasized the importance of building a multipolar world and maintaining strategic partnerships with countries such as China and India.

Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov warned that if European countries prepare for war and attack Russia, the response will not be limited to special military actions but will involve a complete military response. He emphasized that Russia has no plans to attack Europe and criticized certain European leaders for escalating tensions.

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced that the U.S. has proposed negotiations for a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia before June 2023, coinciding with the U.S. midterm elections. Zelensky confirmed Ukraine's willingness to participate in talks in the U.S. amid concerns about potential U.S. pressure on Ukraine regarding territorial issues. The situation remains complex as both sides continue to negotiate amidst ongoing military actions.

The Russian Armed Forces plan to establish a new branch, the Unmanned Systems Troops (ВБС), comprising 87,000 personnel by February 2026. This formation will include one brigade, four regiments, and numerous battalions and companies, focusing on drone operations. However, concerns arise regarding the bureaucratic structure and the ability to recruit qualified personnel amidst existing shortages in the defense industry.

Dmitri VolkovSat Feb 07 2026Loading...

The Russian defense industry is experiencing significant mobilization dynamics amid ongoing sanctions, with military spending projected to reach 13.5 trillion rubles by 2025. Despite employing 3.8 million workers, the sector faces structural challenges, including a decline in dual-use imports and financial difficulties. Plans for 2026 include the introduction of advanced systems like the Su-75 fighter and Sarmat ICBM, but the industry's long-term sustainability is in question due to component shortages and corruption issues.

Dmitri VolkovFri Feb 06 2026Loading...

On February 5, a deputy chairman of the Russian Federation Council stated that the termination of the New START treaty will not lead to a new arms race or nuclear war. He emphasized that the treaty has been ineffective in recent years and that both Russia and the U.S. will not exceed its limits for the foreseeable future, indicating a period of increasing uncertainty in global strategic nuclear forces.

The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired, eliminating limits on their nuclear arsenals. President Trump called for a new nuclear agreement that includes China, which has declined to participate. Russia expressed regret over the treaty's end and stated it would maintain a responsible approach to nuclear stability. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after a two-year suspension.

The New START treaty between the U.S. and Russia expired, eliminating limits on their nuclear arsenals. President Trump called for a new nuclear agreement that includes China, which has declined to participate. Russia expressed regret over the treaty's end and stated it would maintain a responsible approach to nuclear stability. Meanwhile, the U.S. and Russia agreed to reestablish high-level military dialogue after a two-year suspension.

Russia's government has introduced tax incentives for domestic companies to purchase unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as of January 1, 2023. This initiative aims to bolster the UAV sector amid ongoing military operations in Ukraine, where drones account for a significant portion of casualties. Despite these efforts, Russia remains dependent on foreign technology, particularly from China and Iran, indicating challenges in achieving technological autonomy.

Russia's Foreign Ministry declared that it no longer feels bound by the New START treaty obligations following the lack of a formal U.S. response to President Putin's proposal for voluntary compliance. The ministry emphasized readiness to take military-technical countermeasures to address potential threats to national security. The New START treaty, signed in 2010, is set to expire in 2026.

Russia announced $15 billion in arms exports for 2025, focusing on military-technical cooperation with over 30 countries, particularly in Africa. President Putin stated that these contracts have been fulfilled despite Western sanctions. The revenue is intended to modernize defense enterprises and expand production capacity, although the long-term sustainability of these export levels is uncertain due to increased domestic military demand and ongoing sanctions.

Russia anticipates a significant increase in military technology exports, with orders expected to exceed 150 billion USD by 2025. President Putin announced that despite Western pressure, military contracts are being fulfilled with over 30 countries. Russia continues to strengthen military cooperation with key partners, including India, and is exploring new opportunities in Africa.

Belarus has been integrated into Russia's military posture, serving as a forward operating base against Ukraine and NATO. This integration allows Russia to utilize Belarusian territory for military operations, increasing pressure on NATO and Ukraine. The presence of Russian forces in Belarus poses a persistent threat to neighboring countries, fundamentally altering the security landscape along NATO's eastern flank.