Analysis & Reports

The report highlights the increased strategic friction in Iran following the transition of power to Mojtaba Khamenei. It identifies the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij paramilitary as critical centers of gravity in the ongoing conflict. The analysis emphasizes the challenges posed by modern warfare tactics, including the use of drones and ballistic missiles, which hinder traditional military objectives of enemy overthrow.

The USS George H.W. Bush is set to deploy to the eastern Mediterranean, joining the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln in operations against Iranian military infrastructure. This deployment enhances U.S. naval capabilities in the region, allowing for hundreds of strike sorties daily and increasing deterrence against Iranian actions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. Army may relocate THAAD air defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East as the conflict with Iran escalates. President Lee Jae Myung stated that while South Korea cannot prevent the U.S. from moving its assets, the country's defenses remain adequate against North Korea. Reports indicate that military transport aircraft have been seen departing for the region, and the U.S. THAAD inventory is being tested amid ongoing operations.

U.S. air defense systems, including THAAD, may be relocated from South Korea to the Middle East as the conflict with Iran escalates. South Korea's President Lee Jae Myung stated that the U.S. could dispatch these systems abroad, although he emphasized that South Korea's defenses are adequate against North Korea. Reports indicate that military transport aircraft have been moving to and from the region, highlighting the ongoing adjustments in U.S. military deployments.

Australia deployed an E-7A Wedgetail early-warning aircraft and 85 troops to the Middle East on March 10, 2023, to bolster airspace security amid Iranian attacks. The deployment includes replenishing the United Arab Emirates' stocks of AIM-120 air-to-air missiles. The aircraft will operate for an initial four-week period, likely from Al Minad Air Base near Dubai, enhancing regional defenses against Iranian drones and missiles.

The United States has begun relocating Patriot and THAAD missile defense systems from South Korea to the Middle East, with operations detected at Osan Air Base since February 28, 2025. This redeployment is in response to recent missile and drone attacks linked to Iran, raising concerns about U.S. military facilities in the region. South Korean President Lee Jae-myung confirmed the movement, acknowledging limitations in influencing U.S. military decisions.

USS George H.W. Bush completed the Composite Training Unit Exercise (COMPTUEX) on March 5, 2026, certifying its strike group for deployment. The exercise involved approximately 2,400 personnel from Carrier Air Wing 7, which conducted 1,586 sorties. The completion of COMPTUEX indicates readiness for major combat operations, with speculation about a potential deployment to the Middle East to relieve the USS Gerald R. Ford.

The Air National Guard mobilized thousands of troops in support of OPERATION EPIC FURY against Iran, demonstrating wartime readiness. The operation has resulted in over 3,000 strikes on Iranian targets, with U.S. forces engaged in active combat across multiple locations in the Middle East. Seven American personnel have been reported killed during the conflict.

Turkey deployed six F-16C fighter aircraft to Northern Cyprus on Monday to enhance security amid regional tensions. The aircraft will operate from Ercan International Airport, equipped for combat air patrol and air defense missions. This deployment follows recent military movements by Greece and France in response to threats in the area.

On February 28, 2026, a massive airstrike killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and over 40 senior Iranian officials in Tehran, leading to a leadership crisis within the Iranian regime. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is conducting missile and drone attacks against Israel and its neighbors, but the regime is struggling to maintain control amid internal chaos and protests. The air campaign has severely weakened the regime's command structure.

On March 7, 2023, U.S. military forces reported sinking 42 Iranian naval vessels within three days. The U.S. embassy in Baghdad was attacked by rockets, prompting a response from Iraqi security forces. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on U.S. positions in Bahrain and announced an upcoming leadership election. Israel also conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian military assets in Tehran.

The U.S. military reported six personnel killed in Kuwait due to airstrikes as operations against Iran continue, with over 780 casualties in Iran since the conflict began. Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, threatening vessels, while Israel has increased troop deployments in Lebanon amid escalating tensions with Hezbollah. The U.S. State Department has closed embassies in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait following drone attacks.

Greece deployed two frigates and four F-16 fighter jets to Cyprus following a drone strike on RAF Akrotiri on March 2. The strike, attributed to Iranian forces or proxies, caused minimal damage. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias confirmed the deployment to support Cyprus amid escalating tensions in the region. Additionally, a C-130 Hercules transport plane was reported to have arrived in Cyprus.

Greece deployed two frigates and four F-16 fighter jets to Cyprus following a drone strike on RAF Akrotiri on March 2. The strike, attributed to Iranian forces, caused minimal damage. Greek Defense Minister Nikos Dendias confirmed the deployment of advanced military assets, including the FDI HN frigate Kimon, to support Cyprus amid escalating tensions in the region.

The Iranian Defense Ministry spokesperson asserted that the assassination of Iranian commanders will not result in a military collapse, as each commander has at least three successors. This statement was made on the 3rd, emphasizing the resilience of the Iranian Armed Forces against such threats.

Israeli Defense Forces crossed the Blue Line into Lebanese territory on March 3, near the villages of Marjayoun, Kfar Kila, Aadaisseh, and Ramyeh, before withdrawing back south. UNIFIL reported multiple incidents of Israeli airstrikes and gunfire across the Blue Line in the preceding days, along with Hezbollah's rocket and shell fire towards Israel. Each incident is a violation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

The British Armed Forces are deploying naval vessels to Cyprus following a drone attack on the British base in Akrotiri, which occurred on the 2nd and resulted in limited damage. This action reflects a response to the recent security incident.

Israeli forces crossed the Blue Line into Lebanon on March 3, advancing approximately one kilometer. The unit, consisting of one tank and three military bulldozers, is conducting operations in southern Lebanon and occupying multiple positions to strengthen forward defenses. The Lebanese military is coordinating with UN peacekeepers to monitor the situation.

Iran is facing military attacks from U.S. and Israeli forces, with airstrikes reported in Tehran and Isfahan on March 2-3, 2023. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps has retaliated with strikes against Israeli targets. U.S. military operations have resulted in the deaths of six soldiers, and the Strait of Hormuz has been closed, affecting global oil supply.

Iran's Revolutionary Guard announced it will destroy any ships attempting to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, asserting that no oil will leave the region. On February 28, U.S. and Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on the Natanz nuclear facility and targeted the port city of Jask, damaging over 100 fishing boats. The Iranian military has declared a ban on maritime traffic in the Strait following these attacks.