Analysis & Reports

A U.S. Air Force KC-135 refueling aircraft went down in friendly airspace in western Iraq during combat operations against Iran. The incident involved two aircraft, with one landing safely. U.S. Central Command confirmed that the incident was not caused by hostile or friendly fire, and further details are being gathered.

The U.S. Navy decommissioned half of its Avenger-class mine countermeasure ships and replaced them with littoral combat ships equipped for mine countermeasures. Iran initiated mine-laying operations in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting U.S. Central Command to strike 16 Iranian mine-layers. The USS Canberra, the first littoral combat ship with mine countermeasure capabilities, arrived in Bahrain, marking a shift in U.S. naval strategy in the region.

NATO's Cold Response 2026 exercise in Norway faced significant disruptions as key military assets withdrew, including the Italian Navy destroyer Andrea Doria and the French carrier strike group Charles de Gaulle, which was redirected to the Eastern Mediterranean. U.S. General Grynkewich emphasized a timeline for European strategic autonomy by 2035, highlighting the need for increased defense spending and readiness amid rising threats from Russia. The European Union has activated a defense spending escape clause for 17 member states to address these challenges.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

NATO conducted the Cold Response exercise in the Arctic in March 2026, emphasizing civilian preparedness. The EU announced defense partnerships with Australia, Iceland, and Ghana, reflecting a shift towards strategic autonomy. Tensions in EU-NATO relations escalated due to U.S. policies, prompting the EU to explore independent defense strategies. Cooperation between NATO and the EU continues to focus on countering hybrid threats.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

U.S. and allied forces have been intercepting Iranian drones using fighter jets and attack helicopters in Kuwait and Jordan since last month. This operation has led to an 83% decrease in drone usage by Iran. However, the high costs of intercepting low-cost drones with expensive munitions have raised concerns about the sustainability of this tactic. Six U.S. soldiers were killed by an Iranian drone that evaded defenses.

The Israeli Air Force is acquiring 25 F-15EX aircraft for long-range missions, while the Qatar Air Force recently used its F-15QA variant to shoot down two Iranian Su-24 bombers. Poland and Saudi Arabia are also considering the F-15EX for their air forces, highlighting its significant payload capacity and advanced combat technology. The aircraft's capabilities position it as a key player in regional military dynamics.

The FS Charles de Gaulle, a 42,000-ton nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, is conducting operations in the Gulf of Oman and is scheduled for redeployment to the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2026 to protect maritime routes. The carrier, equipped with Areva K15 reactors and Rafale M fighters, has a notable combat history and plays a key role in NATO operations. France is also planning for a new generation of aircraft carriers by the late 2030s.

A fire broke out in the laundry spaces of the USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) on March 12, 2026, while operating in the Red Sea. Two sailors were injured, but the fire was contained and did not compromise the ship's nuclear reactors or Electromagnetic Aircraft Launch System. The carrier remains operational and continues its mission in support of U.S. military operations against Iran.

Iran's Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei announced the continuation of the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and urged neighboring countries to close U.S. military bases. Iranian forces launched ballistic missiles targeting over 50 locations in Israel. The U.S. military has warned civilians to avoid ports along the Strait, while the Pentagon reported over $11 billion spent in the first six days of military action against Iran.

The report highlights the increased strategic friction in Iran following the transition of power to Mojtaba Khamenei. It identifies the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Basij paramilitary as critical centers of gravity in the ongoing conflict. The analysis emphasizes the challenges posed by modern warfare tactics, including the use of drones and ballistic missiles, which hinder traditional military objectives of enemy overthrow.

U.S. forces engaged in Operation Epic Fury have struck approximately 6,000 targets in Iran, resulting in seven American service members killed and around 140 wounded. The operation has cost an estimated $11.3 billion in its first six days. Iran's new supreme leader has vowed retaliation, while Congressional Democrats are introducing resolutions to limit U.S. military involvement without formal authorization.

Operation Epic Fury has cost approximately $11.3 billion in its first six days, with U.S. forces striking around 6,000 targets in Iran. Seven American service members were killed, and about 140 were wounded, with eight in serious condition. Iran has vowed to retaliate against U.S. and Israeli forces following the airstrikes.

In 2026, NATO and the EU are undergoing significant transformations in response to transatlantic tensions, with the EU launching the Readiness 2030 initiative to boost defense spending. The Trump administration's policies have intensified debates on European strategic autonomy, leading to Spain's prohibition of U.S. strikes on Iran. The EU is also expanding defense partnerships with countries like Ghana, indicating a shift towards operational independence from American military support.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

The U.S. Air Force is conducting airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, specifically targeting the Taleghan 2 site near Tehran, using 12 B-1B Lancers and 3 B-52 Stratofortresses. This operation, involving GBU-31 JDAMs with BLU-109 warheads, aims to degrade Iran's nuclear capabilities and loitering munition networks. The strikes are part of a broader strategy to prevent Iran from reinforcing its buried nuclear assets.

NATO activated a ballistic missile defense posture on March 5, 2026, following an Iranian missile threat to Turkey. Concurrently, NATO began the Cold Response military exercises in Norway on March 9, emphasizing civilian preparedness. European nations are diversifying arms procurement, reducing reliance on U.S. military hardware, with Germany projected to significantly increase defense spending by 2029. These developments reflect a strategic shift in European defense in response to ongoing threats.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

The U.S. military has spent over $11 billion in the first week of operations against Iran, with ongoing airstrikes and naval engagements. Senator Chris Murphy criticized the incoherence of U.S. war plans, particularly regarding the lack of a strategy for the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian retaliatory strikes have damaged at least 11 U.S. military bases in the region, raising concerns about the conflict's escalation and its impact on international shipping.

Malian, Burkinabè, and Nigerien forces conducted coordinated military operations from February 21 to March 9, 2026, eliminating over 100 terrorists. The Malian Armed Forces executed a surgical airstrike in Yanfolila, while the Burkinabè army launched a counter-offensive in Northern Sahel. Nigerien forces successfully repelled an attack on the Tahua airport. These actions reflect an intensified commitment to counter-terrorism amid evolving geopolitical dynamics in the Sahel.

Marie DuboisThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

Iran has begun mining the Strait of Hormuz, utilizing rocket-deployed mines and small boats, with estimates of 2,000 to 6,000 mines available. The Iranian Navy and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are actively involved in this operation, which poses a significant threat to maritime traffic. U.S. intelligence confirms the ongoing mining activities as part of Operation Epic Fury, while U.S. forces have targeted Iranian naval assets in response.

U.S. Navy SEAL Team Six is preparing for a potential raid on Kharg Island, Iran's key oil export terminal, to disrupt 90% of the country's oil exports. This operation, which may involve HALO jumps and SEAL Delivery Vehicles, poses significant risks of U.S. casualties and could impact global oil prices. The mission aims to leverage control over Iran's energy lifeline amid ongoing military operations in the region.

The USS George H.W. Bush is set to deploy to the eastern Mediterranean, joining the USS Gerald R. Ford and USS Abraham Lincoln in operations against Iranian military infrastructure. This deployment enhances U.S. naval capabilities in the region, allowing for hundreds of strike sorties daily and increasing deterrence against Iranian actions, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.