Analysis & Reports

China is deterred from invading Taiwan due to U.S. military operations in Iran and the enhanced capabilities of Japan and Australia. The U.S. Navy's USS Abraham Lincoln has been redeployed to Iran, impacting its presence in the Indo-Pacific. Japan's acquisition of over 150 F-35 fighters contributes to regional deterrence. Upcoming political summits and arms deals will further influence China's strategic calculations regarding Taiwan.

Iran launched a systematic campaign of ballistic missile and drone strikes against Gulf Cooperation Council states in March 2026, with the UAE intercepting 165 ballistic missiles and 541 drones. The strikes targeted civilian infrastructure in Dubai and Bahrain, indicating a shift in Iranian strategy. Saudi Arabia also reported intercepting multiple Iranian missiles and drones. The US military adjusted its presence in the region amid the escalating conflict.

Ahmed Al-RashidThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

NATO commenced its Cold Response 2026 exercise in the Norwegian Arctic on March 9, emphasizing civilian preparedness and total defense concepts. On the same day, NATO missile defense systems intercepted an Iranian ballistic missile that entered Turkish airspace. European defense strategy is diversifying, with increased arms imports from South Korea and Israel, while the UK is stepping up its leadership role in European security.

Alexandra ReevesThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

The Turkish Ministry of Defense announced the deployment of a Patriot air defense system in Malatya on March 11, 2026, to enhance air defense capabilities against Iranian missile and drone attacks. This system is being prepared for operational readiness to protect Turkish airspace, complementing an existing Patriot system at İncirlik Air Base. The deployment is part of NATO's enhanced defense measures in the region.

France deployed 10 warships, including the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, to the Eastern Mediterranean in March 2023 to enhance regional security and protect its interests. This unprecedented naval operation aims to position France as a credible security partner amid shifting alliances in the Middle East following Iranian missile strikes. The deployment includes 8 frigates and 2 helicopter carriers, demonstrating France's military capability and commitment to its defense agreements in the region.

Iranian forces launched hundreds of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones targeting Gulf Cooperation Council states from late February 2026. Between March 1 and March 4, Qatar intercepted 125 of 145 threats, while Bahrain neutralized 61 missiles and 34 drones. The UAE reported over 800 threats detected and intercepted, although some caused localized damage. The conflict has prompted Gulf states to enhance their air defense capabilities and focus on defense industrial localization.

Ahmed Al-RashidThu Mar 12 2026Loading...

Hezbollah launched a missile attack on the Israeli naval special forces headquarters located at the Atlit base, south of Haifa, in the early morning hours of the 12th. The attack involved a significant number of high-quality missiles. As of now, there has been no response from Israeli authorities.

On November 11, China called for an immediate ceasefire in the Lebanon-Israel conflict during a UN Security Council meeting. The Chinese representative condemned attacks on civilians and urged adherence to international humanitarian law. The UN reported over 4000 fire activities in Lebanon since March, indicating a significant escalation in the conflict. China emphasized the need for international support to stabilize Lebanon and restore peace in the region.

The U.S. Air Force's B-52 Stratofortress has been deployed in Iran, conducting strikes during Operation Epic Fury. The modernization to the B-52J variant is facing delays, particularly in radar production, which is now expected to be completed by 2030. This upgrade is essential for maintaining strategic capabilities against potential threats from China and other nations.

The F-16XL, a prototype fighter jet designed in the 1980s, was evaluated for its potential role in the 2026 air campaign against Iran. Its cranked-arrow delta wing design allowed for increased payload and range, making it suitable for long-range strikes. Although it never entered production, its capabilities align with current operational needs for striking Iranian military infrastructure.

USS Florida (SSGN 728) completed a 727-day deployment starting in August 2022, operating across the Indo-Pacific, Middle East, and Europe. The submarine, armed with 154 Tomahawk missiles, showcased US military capabilities and deterrence amid rising global tensions. Despite its significant role, USS Florida is scheduled for retirement in 2026, raising concerns about a potential conventional strike gap in the US Navy's capabilities.

Iran continues to ship large amounts of crude oil to China through the Strait of Hormuz despite military threats and attacks on vessels. Since February 28, 2026, approximately 12 million barrels have transited the strait, with the majority officially destined for the People's Republic of China. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted vessels, but analysts believe a long-term blockade of the strait would harm Iran's own interests.

The Pentagon confirmed the identity of Chief Warrant Officer 3 Robert Marzan, one of six soldiers killed in a March 1 drone strike at Port Shuaiba, Kuwait. The soldiers were part of the 103rd Sustainment Command and were the first American casualties of Operation Epic Fury. Their remains were returned to the U.S. on March 7, 2023.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) introduced the Merkava Mark 5 Barak tank, featuring advanced technologies such as AI-driven target processing and the Trophy Active Protection System. This tank is designed for high-intensity urban warfare expected in 2026 and has a proven combat history since its debut in 1982. The latest model was unveiled in September 2023 and is scheduled for acceptance testing in January 2024.

The U.S. Air Force faces criticism for focusing on air denial rather than air superiority, which is crucial for operational success. Recent conflicts in Ukraine and Iran demonstrate that without air superiority, military operations become constrained and costly. The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to reaffirm its commitment to achieving air control to effectively project power and sustain operations.

NATO conducted Arctic exercises in March 2026 involving approximately 25,000 troops from 14 countries, including the United States and Denmark. The U.S. has set a 2027 deadline for Europe to assume NATO's conventional defense capabilities, prompting significant shifts in European defense strategies. Germany is increasing its defense budget and procurement focus, while France proposed extending its nuclear deterrent to other European nations.

Alexandra ReevesWed Mar 11 2026Loading...

U.S. military operations against Iranian forces continued in the Strait of Hormuz, resulting in the destruction of at least 16 Iranian mine-laying vessels. Approximately 140-150 U.S. service members have been injured, with 108 returning to duty. Iranian missile and drone attacks have decreased, while the U.S. Navy has refrained from escorting ships through the strait due to safety concerns. Iran has begun mining the strait and is targeting banks associated with the U.S. and Israel.

The U.S. military has destroyed over 60 Iranian ships and the last of the Soleimani-class warships since February 28, 2023, as part of ongoing operations against Iran. U.S. Central Command reported 140 troops wounded and 7 service members killed during these strikes. The offensive continues with nearly hourly strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including a ballistic missile manufacturing facility.

UAE AH-64 Apache helicopters engaged and shot down Iranian Shaheed drones in March 2026. Pilots confirmed the authenticity of the video showing the engagement, which utilized the 30mm M230 chain gun. The U.S. has been testing air-burst ammunition for drone targets, highlighting the evolving role of Apaches in drone warfare.

The U.S. military is engaged in an ongoing conflict with Iran, which has lasted for 12 days, resulting in seven U.S. troop fatalities and 140 injuries. President Trump has fluctuated in his statements regarding the war's objectives, from demanding unconditional surrender to suggesting a change in Iran's leadership. The U.S. military asserts significant successes against Iranian forces, yet the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical point of contention.