Analysis & Reports

Ukraine resumed drone strikes on Russian oil refineries on October 16, 2026, following a series of Russian attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure. The energy truce declared by Washington quickly collapsed, with both sides viewing infrastructure as leverage in the conflict. President Zelensky announced that the energy agreement is no longer in effect, indicating a return to previous military strategies targeting critical energy assets.

Dmitri VolkovFri Oct 16 2026Loading...

Ukraine resumed strikes on Russian oil refineries on October 15, 2026, following a brief 48-hour ceasefire. This action signifies a return to energy warfare, with Ukraine targeting critical infrastructure to disrupt Russian military logistics. Russian officials have accused Ukraine of violating agreements, highlighting the ongoing tensions and strategic implications of these military operations.

Dmitri VolkovThu Oct 15 2026Loading...

The Trump administration finalized a deal to import Russian diesel, impacting US-Ukrainian relations and NATO unity. In February 2025, Ukraine retaliated by attacking a Russian refinery after US demands to cease hostilities. This agreement has raised concerns among European allies about the US's commitment to countering Russian aggression, potentially fracturing the Atlantic alliance.

The U.S. Army is reviewing its emergency war gear stocks, planning changes based on insights from the war with Iran. This review, known as TAP2E, will assess the placement and readiness of prepositioned stocks, with a budget of $702 million allocated for the next year. The Army has identified at least seven stockpiles in North America, Asia, and Europe, and plans to establish an eighth in the southwest Indo-Pacific.

Russia is nearing completion of three large aircraft shelters at Engels-2 air base, with a total of 16 planned. The shelters are designed to protect strategic bombers, including the Tu-160 and Tu-95MS, from drone strikes. Satellite imagery confirms the construction progress as of October 12, 2023, with the base located about 600 km from the Ukrainian front line.

The European Union imposed record sanctions on 1600 entities within the Russian defense industry on October 12, 2026. These sanctions aim to disrupt the entire production ecosystem, affecting suppliers and intermediaries, rather than just targeting individual companies. The sanctions are expected to increase costs and reduce the quality of military equipment, while Russia may turn to countries like China and Iran for support.

Dmitri VolkovTue Oct 13 2026Loading...

Trump announced a deal with Putin on October 9, 2023, for Russia to supply diesel fuel to the United States and global markets. The agreement includes immediate delivery of over 300,000 tons of diesel, with additional supplies planned. The U.S. Treasury Department issued a license waiving sanctions on Russian diesel through April 2027, prompting calls from European leaders to maintain sanctions on Russian energy.

Russian Geran-4 drones have been upgraded with 32-element antennas, enhancing their electronic warfare capabilities. This development, linked to Chinese technology, complicates Ukrainian electronic warfare efforts. The ongoing reliance on Chinese components highlights Russia's logistical challenges in drone production. Recent Ukrainian strikes on Russian data centers further expose vulnerabilities in their military infrastructure.

Dmitri VolkovSat Oct 10 2026Loading...

Russia conducted missile and drone strikes on Ukraine from March 3 to March 9, 2023, targeting military and logistical infrastructure. In retaliation, Ukraine struck Russian oil refineries and a data center in Kaluga. The Russian military reported significant damage to Ukrainian ports and logistics, while Ukraine's armed forces engaged in 211 battles in frontline areas.

Ukraine struck three Russian missile facilities on October 9, 2026, targeting the Redkino experimental plant in Tver Oblast and facilities in Nizhny Novgorod. This operation aimed to disrupt the supply chain for missile production, impacting logistics and increasing the cost of Russian missile operations. Reports indicate one Russian soldier was killed, with minimal damage to infrastructure confirmed by multiple sources.

Dmitri VolkovFri Oct 09 2026Loading...

HMS Daring underwent extensive repairs at Portsmouth from 2017 to 2023 after experiencing propulsion issues during deployment. Despite completing the Power Improvement Project, the destroyer could not return to service due to crew shortages. The Royal Navy has faced significant challenges in maintaining operational readiness, with only three of six Type 45 destroyers currently available.

Uralvagonzavod is repairing heavily damaged T-90M tanks from Ukraine while also producing new ones in Nizhny Tagil. The plant's repair capabilities have increased due to the breakdown of Russia's military repair network. Some repaired tanks may be miscounted as new production, complicating assessments of Russia's tank manufacturing output. The company has also delivered upgraded T-72B3M tanks with enhanced drone protection.

Ukrainian drones incapacitated up to half of Russia's oil refining capacity in 2026, significantly impacting military logistics and fuel supply in Central Asia. Countries like Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are now sourcing oil from Iran, indicating a shift in regional fuel dynamics. The Russian military faces operational challenges as it struggles to adapt to these losses, with fuel restrictions imposed domestically. The situation reflects a broader strategic shift in the region, diminishing Russia's influence.

Dmitri VolkovWed Oct 07 2026Loading...

The Russian Armed Forces received over 10,000 pieces of military equipment in September 2023, including Su-57 and Su-35S fighter jets, T-90M, T-80BVM, and T-72B3M tanks. The newly delivered tanks are equipped with enhanced protection systems developed from combat experience. Additionally, various reconnaissance and attack drones, as well as over 1 million munitions, were acquired for operational use.

Russia is modifying the Geran-4 drone to improve its autonomous capabilities, focusing on targeting logistics and infrastructure in Ukraine. This includes enhanced navigation systems and a new warhead designed for concrete and steel. Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russian strikes have damaged over 500 locomotives since February 2022, indicating a strategic shift in targeting. Concurrently, Ukraine has successfully attacked Russian fuel depots, significantly impacting their refining capacity.

Dmitri VolkovTue Oct 06 2026Loading...

Uralvagonzavod completed testing of the upgraded BREM-80 armored recovery vehicle on October 6, 2024, and has begun serial production. The vehicle allows crews to tow damaged tanks without leaving the vehicle, significantly reducing the risk of injury. It features reinforced armor and advanced radio equipment, enhancing its operational capabilities in combat situations.

The CSTO conducted military exercises in Chebarkul from September 27 to October 3, 2026, involving 2000 personnel and over 350 units of military equipment. The exercises focused on command structure, logistics, and coordination among member states, particularly in response to modern warfare challenges. Notably, Armenia did not participate, highlighting political tensions within the alliance.

Dmitri VolkovMon Oct 05 2026Loading...

Ukraine is intensifying strikes on Russian oil refineries as part of a military strategy to disrupt Russian logistics and retaliate against attacks on civilian infrastructure. President Zelenskyy emphasized the importance of targeting energy assets, marking a shift towards reciprocal infrastructure warfare. This strategy aims to impose costs on Russia while complicating its winter campaign against Ukraine. Key indicators to monitor include refinery utilization and fuel prices in Russia.

Alexandra ReevesSun Oct 04 2026Loading...

Ukrainian President Zelensky announced plans to intensify strikes on Russian oil refineries in response to recent large-scale airstrikes by Russia. On October 3, Russian forces conducted drone strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure, including a bridge on the Dnieper River and a logistics center in Kyiv Oblast. Additionally, a cargo ship was struck in the northwestern Black Sea while en route to Odesa.

On October 2, 2023, Russian forces conducted strikes on military infrastructure in Izmail, Odesa Oblast, targeting facilities supporting Ukrainian operations. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces attacked a refinery in Volgograd Oblast. Over the past 24 hours, 207 combat incidents were reported, with Ukrainian forces targeting Russian military positions using air and artillery strikes.