Analysis & Reports

U.S. and Bahraini forces conducted a live-fire counter-drone exercise in Bahrain on January 26, 2026. The exercise involved a U.S. MRAP vehicle firing a M-LIDS interceptor at a fixed-wing target, focusing on detecting and defeating small unmanned aerial systems. This bilateral training aimed to enhance coordination and validate shared procedures for counter-drone operations in the region.

The USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group entered the Central Command area, with preparations for potential military action against Iran. Iran has declared its military readiness and warned of retaliation against U.S. bases if attacked. The U.S. has deployed additional F-15E fighters and transport aircraft to the region, indicating heightened tensions and military readiness on both sides.

On October 26, 2023, the Israel Defense Forces confirmed the recovery of the body of Lian Gvili, an Israeli hostage killed in combat on October 7, 2023. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad claimed they had provided the location of the body three weeks prior, accusing Israel of delaying the search. With this recovery, all hostages or bodies held in Gaza have been returned to Israel.

Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in January 2026, aiming to disrupt shipping and spike global oil prices. While lacking the conventional naval strength for a sustained closure, Iran possesses asymmetric capabilities such as naval mines and anti-ship missiles. This threat serves as a coercive measure against perceived existential threats, likely prompting a significant U.S. military response and international coalition efforts to ensure maritime security.

Israeli Defense Forces conducted a search operation in the Northern Gaza Strip on January 25 to recover the last body of an Israeli hostage. The operation follows information provided by Hamas regarding the location of the body. The IDF estimates the search will take several days. Additionally, two Palestinians were reported killed by Israeli forces in separate incidents during the same timeframe.

Hamas announced the transfer of all Israeli captives and remains in accordance with the ceasefire agreement, emphasizing transparency and urgency. Despite Israel's alleged non-compliance and repeated violations, Hamas completed the transfer under complex conditions. The Israeli government confirmed ongoing searches for the last captive's remains in northern Gaza, based on information provided by Hamas.

Iranian armed forces entered a state of full alert on January 25, monitoring hostile movements and prepared to respond to any aggression. Iranian officials emphasized their readiness to retaliate against U.S. interests in the region, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz, which they consider a strategic asset. The U.S. has been increasing its military presence in the area, raising tensions.

The 'Gulf Security-4' joint security exercise commenced in Qatar on January 25, involving security agencies from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and the United States. The exercise focuses on counter-terrorism, civil unrest management, cybersecurity threats, border security, and disaster response, and will conclude on February 4 with a joint assessment of outcomes.

On January 25, 2025, the Gaza health department reported that 484 individuals have died and 1321 have been injured due to Israeli military attacks since the ceasefire began. The total casualties since the outbreak of the conflict on October 7, 2023, have reached 71657 deaths and 171399 injuries in Gaza.

On October 24, an Israeli drone strike in the Gaza Strip killed two minors, aged 13 and 15, who were collecting firewood near a military-controlled area. The Israeli Defense Forces stated that the strike targeted individuals posing a direct threat by planting explosives. This incident adds to the reported casualties in Gaza since the ceasefire agreement.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is prepared to respond to potential enemy attacks, as stated by Deputy Commander Vahidi on the 24th. The U.S. is deploying a large fleet, including an aircraft carrier, to the Middle East amid escalating tensions. Vahidi emphasized that anti-government groups in Iran are linked to foreign enemies, and the IRGC's readiness has improved since the last conflict with Israel.

On January 24, the Yemeni government conducted strikes against Houthi forces in western Taiz Province. This action was taken in response to the Houthis' attempts to establish a new military base in the area.

Kilo-class submarines of the Russian Navy are actively conducting missile attacks against Ukrainian infrastructure in the Black Sea. These submarines, known for their stealth capabilities, have been involved in military operations since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Recent reports indicate that Ukrainian forces have successfully targeted and damaged some of these submarines, highlighting their strategic significance in the ongoing conflict.

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced its heightened readiness to respond to any aggressive actions by enemies, claiming to be better prepared than during the '12-day war.' This statement comes amid U.S. military deployments to the Middle East, which Iran views as a threat to its sovereignty. The IRGC criticized the U.S. for supporting anti-government factions while simultaneously committing crimes within Iran.

The U.S. Navy deployed a carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln towards Iran in response to rising tensions and human rights abuses amid protests. President Trump indicated that military action could be considered if Iran proceeds with executions of protesters. The UK is also sending RAF Eurofighter Typhoon jets to Qatar to support regional stability.

Barzan Holdings signed four agreements with the Qatari armed forces at DIMDEX 2026, valued at 3.3 billion QAR, and announced plans to export two frigates to Indonesia for $1 billion. The company unveiled the Barzan USV, designed for intelligence and combat missions, along with a NATO-compliant command and control center. Barzan aims to enhance local production while continuing international collaborations.

Israeli airstrikes targeted Gaza Strip on January 22, resulting in 5 fatalities. The strikes occurred in northern Gaza City and southern Khan Younis. Since the ceasefire began, Israeli military actions have led to 477 deaths and 1301 injuries in the region. Hamas condemned the ongoing attacks and the involvement of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in a proposed peace committee.

NATO plans to conduct several military exercises in the Arctic within the next few months, as stated by NATO's Supreme Commander. These exercises will not include Greenland, and while NORAD is coordinating related activities, Greenland remains outside the scope. Ongoing discussions among Denmark, the U.S., and Greenland representatives are focused on finding a beneficial solution for all parties involved.

Iraq has received the first batch of ISIS members who were detained in Syria. This transfer is part of the Iraqi government's efforts to manage and address the presence of ISIS members within its borders. The action reflects ongoing political and military strategies to combat ISIS influence.

The Israeli military conducted airstrikes against multiple Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. The operation involved the use of aircraft and missiles, indicating a significant military engagement. Details regarding the timing and specific troop numbers were not provided.