Analysis & Reports

Ukrainian defense forces struck a Russian Karakurt-class missile corvette at its base in Kaspiysk, Republic of Dagestan, overnight on May 7. The attack utilized FP-1 drones and represents a significant extension of Ukrainian strike capabilities into the Caspian Sea, targeting a vessel capable of launching Kalibr cruise missiles. The extent of the damage is currently being assessed.

HAVELSAN signed a contract amendment for the Version 3 configuration of the BARKAN Unmanned Ground Vehicle (UGV) at SAHA Expo 2026. The BARKAN UGV, first inducted into the Turkish Armed Forces in 2023, has evolved based on operational feedback. BARKAN 3 features modular capabilities for various missions and is designed to operate alongside other systems, enhancing its effectiveness in complex operational scenarios.

Russia declared a ceasefire from May 8-9, threatening missile strikes on Kyiv if disrupted. Ukraine reported over 1,800 violations of its ceasefire, leading to civilian casualties. Ukrainian forces escalated deep strikes on Russian oil refineries, while NATO conducted military exercises in response to the heightened tensions. Russia launched a record 409 drones in a single wave against Ukraine.

Dmitri VolkovThu May 07 2026Loading...

On May 3, 2026, Ukraine executed a significant drone offensive against Russian targets, including oil infrastructure in Primorsk. In response, Russia launched a counter-offensive with drones and missiles. The conflict has intensified, with both sides engaging in unprecedented aerial exchanges, while Ukraine's strikes aim to degrade Russia's economic capacity. Diplomatic tensions escalated with Russia proposing a ceasefire, which Ukraine dismissed, leading to further military actions.

Dmitri VolkovWed May 06 2026Loading...

Russia scheduled missile tests at the Kura test range in Kamchatka Krai from May 6 to 10, 2026, as a nuclear signaling move to deter potential Ukrainian strikes during the Victory Day parade on May 9. The tests involve nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missiles and are intended to convey a message of deterrence amid heightened tensions surrounding the holiday.

Rostec has developed the SERP-FPV, a vehicle-mounted counter-FPV drone jammer, designed to protect mobile assets from drone attacks. This system features rapid deployment capabilities and 360-degree coverage, allowing it to effectively suppress signals from FPV drones, including those operating on custom frequencies. The SERP-FPV is part of a broader effort to enhance electronic warfare capabilities in response to evolving drone threats in the conflict.

Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Moscow and other Russian locations on May 5, leading to the interception of 117 drones by Russian forces. The attacks coincide with heightened security measures in Moscow ahead of the Victory Day parade, which has been significantly scaled back due to perceived threats. Ukraine's military operations have expanded into Russia's industrial heartland, while diplomatic tensions continue to rise between NATO and Russia. President Zelensky proposed a unilateral ceasefire, challenging Russia's response.

Dmitri VolkovTue May 05 2026Loading...

Ukraine struck the VNIIR Progress electronics facility in Cheboksary, Russia, overnight using an FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile followed by An-196 kamikaze drones. This facility is crucial for supplying electronics to Russian military systems, and the strike indicates a significant enhancement in Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities. The operation reflects a strategic shift in targeting industrial sites that support Russian military operations, revealing potential weaknesses in Russian air defense.

Ukrainian drones struck a residential building in Moscow on May 4, 2026, marking a significant escalation in Ukraine's long-range strike campaign. Concurrently, Ukrainian forces targeted Russian naval assets in the Gulf of Finland and conducted multiple drone strikes on oil refineries and military installations. NATO's Exercise Sword 26, involving 15,500 participants, aims to validate combat readiness across the eastern flank. These developments reflect a shifting strategic landscape in the ongoing conflict.

Dmitri VolkovMon May 04 2026Loading...

Ukrainian forces executed a series of drone strikes against Russian energy infrastructure, including the Tuapse oil refinery and tankers near Novorossiysk, from May 1 to 3, 2026. The attacks aimed to degrade Russia's oil export capabilities and were part of a broader deep-strike campaign. Concurrently, ground combat intensified along the eastern front, with significant engagements reported. Ukrainian drones also damaged Russian fighter jets at Shagol airfield, highlighting the expanding operational reach of Ukrainian forces.

Dmitri VolkovSun May 03 2026Loading...

Russia has developed and deployed hundreds of ground robotic systems in combat against Ukraine, with significant production scaling since 2022. The Kuryer, Varan, and Impulse-M are among the confirmed models actively used. As of April 2026, these systems are not under Western sanctions, highlighting a growing capability in unmanned warfare.

Ukraine struck several Russian Su-57 Felon stealth fighters and one Su-34 Fullback at Shagol airfield in Chelyabinsk on April 25. The attack, confirmed by Ukraine's General Staff, aimed to reduce Russia's ability to target Ukrainian civilians. Independent satellite imagery corroborated the damage to the aircraft, marking a notable extension of Ukraine's long-range strike capabilities.

Ukraine conducted long-range strikes against Russian military targets from April 28 to 30, 2023, leading to the cancellation of Russia's Victory Day parade. The strikes included attacks on military helicopters in Voronezh Oblast and infrastructure in Perm and Orenburg Oblasts. This escalation reflects Ukraine's evolving strike capabilities and has significant implications for Russian military operations and morale.

Dmitri VolkovFri May 01 2026Loading...

Russia's Tu-22M3 bomber fleet has been reduced to 27-30 operational aircraft due to a 10-15% attrition rate since the Russo-Ukraine War began in 2022. The aircraft are vulnerable to modern threats, suffering losses from combat and non-combat incidents. Production ceased in 1993, preventing replacements, which degrades Russia's long-range strike capabilities significantly.

European defense spending surged by 14% in 2025, reaching $864 billion, marking the highest level recorded by SIPRI. Germany's defense budget rose by 24% to $114 billion, while Poland allocated 4.5% of its GDP to defense. Both Russia and Ukraine significantly increased their military expenditures, with Ukraine's budget hitting 40% of its GDP. The NATO summit in June 2025 established a new defense spending target of 5% of GDP by 2035.

Dr. Klaus WeberThu Apr 30 2026Loading...

In April 2026, Ukraine intensified its drone warfare, conducting 18 strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and destroying four helicopters in Voronezh Oblast. Russian forces deployed over 8,400 kamikaze drones in a single day, while Ukraine's interceptor drones achieved a 90% interception rate. The conflict's drone dimension has become a critical operational focus, with Ukraine demonstrating the ability to strike deep into Russian territory.

Dmitri VolkovThu Apr 30 2026Loading...

On April 30, the Ukrainian Special Operations Center conducted a drone strike on a Russian oil refinery in Perm, marking the second consecutive day of attacks on Russian energy facilities in the area. The refinery, which has an annual production capacity of 13 million tons, supplies fuel for both civilian use and the Russian military.

North Korea commemorated its military's involvement in battles against Ukrainian forces in Kursk by inaugurating a museum in Pyongyang. Over 10,000 North Korean soldiers participated in these operations. The event featured a display of captured military equipment, including a Leopard 2A4 tank, which was reportedly seized in February 2025. The origins of the tank remain uncertain, as it may have been captured by Russian forces before being transferred to North Korea.

Russia is developing a new modular armor system for over 50 Mi-8 helicopters in response to significant combat losses in Ukraine. The system aims to enhance crew and troop protection against threats, particularly from Ukrainian air defense systems. The armor is currently being tested at the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant in Buryatia, with plans for production-scale fielding in the near future.

Ukrainian forces conducted extensive drone strikes against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets across multiple regions in late April 2026, significantly impacting Russian operations. On April 28-29, strikes targeted facilities in Perm and Krasnodar Krai, among others, while Russian forces retaliated with missile and drone attacks on Ukraine. The conflict remains intense, with heavy casualties reported on both sides and ongoing military engagements in various directions.

Dmitri VolkovThu Apr 30 2026Loading...